Abstract
The Polish telecom market generated Zl 39.2bn ($16.3bn) in service revenue in
2008. This represented a 5.5% year-on-year increase in local currency terms;
the market will grow at a CAGR of 0.6% over the next five years, reaching Zl
45.0bn ($17.8bn) in 2014, propelled by a projected strong expansion of both
the mobile and fixed data segments. IPTV will be the fastest growing revenue
stream between 2009 and 2014, with a CAGR of 22.6%, followed by fixed VoIP at
15.6%. While we project that fixed and mobile data services will be
characterized by both attractive revenue profiles and healthy growth rates,
the voice markets, which will grow at lower rates, will still generate almost
60% of the total market revenue in 2014. As is the case in the rest of Europe,
circuit-switched lines are seeing high disconnection rates, and dial-up
Internet has practically disappeared in Poland too. These are the two
sub-segments that will experience negative growth in local currency in the
forecast period, showing CAGRs of -2.45% and -57.2%, respectively.
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