Green Energy in the US: Renewable investment, capacity growth and future outlook

Table of Contents

Executive summary

• Market development
• The Obama effect
• Wind power
• Solar power
• Hydropower
• Geothermal power
• Biomass
• Ocean power
• Future outlook

Chapter 1 - Market development

• Summary

• Overview of US electricity infrastructure
• Generation and installed capacity
• Sectoral distribution of generation
• Sales, revenue, and average retail price

• Overview of renewable energy in the US
• Background
• Installed capacity and growth of renewables

• Drivers of renewable energy
• American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
• The production tax credit (PTC)
• State level Renewable energy Portfolio Standards (RPS)
• Growing public support for action on climate change
• Increasing investments

• Resistors of renewable energy
• Failure to price CO2 emissions
• Licensing and permitting issues
• Environmental issues
• Discontinuity in PTC
• Transmission issues

• Comparative economics
• Global comparison

Chapter 2 - The Obama effect

• Summary

• Overview
• New energy policy

• Energy security
• Crude oil and petroleum imports
• Natural gas imports
• Coal
• Biofuel' s new direction away from corn-based ethanol
• The Outer Continental Shelf Project

• The Outer Continental Shelf
• Resource potential

• The effect of the new policy
• Energy efficiency
• US market impact

• Growth in green energy
• Total energy
• Electricity
• Obama' s winners and losers

Chapter 3 - Wind power

• Summary
• Overview

• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• State level analysis
• Key players
• The economics of wind power

• Drivers of wind power
• Continuity in PTC
• Strong public and political support
• Increasing economic competitiveness of wind power

• Resistors of wind power
• Lack of continuity in the PTC
• Environmental issues
• Transmission constraints and costs

• Wind power potential and outlook
• Wind power potential
• Outlook for wind power

Chapter 4 - Solar power

• Summary
• Overview

• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• State level analysis
• Key players
• Economics

• Drivers of solar power
• The Federal Investment Tax Credit
• ARRA impact on the solar industry
• The California Solar Initiative
• Increasing corporate interest in solar power
• Increased venture capital funding in solar power
• State level RPS targets

• Resistors of solar power
• Shortage of silicon
• High cost

• Solar power potential and outlook
• Solar power potential
• Outlook for solar power

Chapter 5 - Hydropower

• Summary
• Overview

• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• State level analysis
• Key players
• Economics

• Drivers of hydropower
• Licensing reforms
• Inclusion of incremental hydropower under PTC
• The DOE Hydropower Program

• Resistors of hydropower
• Licensing issues due to environmental concerns
• Newly realized environmental concerns
• Capital intensive but lacking incentives

• Hydropower potential and outlook
• Hydropower potential
• Outlook for hydropower

Chapter 6 - Geothermal power

• Summary
• Overview

• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• State level analysis
• Key players
• Economics

• Drivers of geothermal power
• Introduction of PTC for geothermal
• Other financial merits for geothermal
• DOE' s Geothermal Technologies Program
• Increased environmental concerns

• Resistors of geothermal power
• Short time horizon for PTC
• Leasing issues
• Cost constraints and transmission issues
• Limited research funding

• Geothermal power potential and outlook
• Geothermal power potential
• Outlook for geothermal power

Chapter 7 - Biomass

• Summary
• Overview

• Current scenario
• Installed capacity and generation
• Global comparison
• Key players
• Economics

• Drivers of biomass
• Attractive economics of co-firing
• Environmentally friendly power generation
• Employment generation
• DOE biomass program
• PTC extension and ITC inclusion

• Resistors of biomass
• Cost constraints
• Constraints in the supply of raw material

• Biomass potential and outlook
• Biomass potential
• Outlook for biomass

Chapter 8 - Ocean power

• Summary
• Overview

• Current scenario
• Global comparison
• Key players
• Economics

• Drivers of ocean power
• Energy Improvement and Extension Act of 2008
• State and city government initiatives
• Private investments

• Resistors of ocean power
• Lack of federal support
• Siting and leasing issues
• Cost constraints

• Ocean power potential and outlook
• Ocean power potential
• Outlook for ocean power

Chapter 9 - Future outlook

• Summary
• Outlook for the US electricity sector

• Outlook for renewables
• The American Clean Energy and Security Act
• EIA outlook
• Alternative scenarios

• Abbreviations
• Index

List of Figures

• Figure 1.1: US net generation share by energy source (Thousand MWh), 2008
• Figure 1.2: US electrical total net summer capacity (GW), 2007
• Figure 1.3: US net energy generation shares by sector (Thousand MWh), 2008
• Figure 1.4: Crude oil spot prices ($ per barrel), 1986-2009
• Figure 1.5: US net generation by energy source (Thousand KWh), 2008
• Figure 1.6: US electrical generation growth by type (%), 2003-2007
• Figure 2.7: US primary energy consumption by source and sector (Quadrillion Btu), 2007
• Figure 2.8: The Continental Shelf
• Figure 2.9: US renewable energy regional planning areas on the Outer Continental Shelf
• Figure 2.10: Total US energy (Quadrillion Btu), 2008
• Figure 3.11: US cumulative installed wind capacity (MW), 2008
• Figure 3.12: Top 10 countries by cumulative installed wind capacity (MW), 2008
• Figure 3.13: Top 10 countries by new installed capacity (MW), 2008
• Figure 3.14: Leading US states by cumulative wind capacity (MW), 2008
• Figure 3.15: Average cost/KWh of wind-generated electricity (US cents), 1980-2020
• Figure 3.16: Impact of PTC on wind power capacity additions (MW), 2009
• Figure 3.17: Wind resource map for the US
• Figure 4.18: US cumulative installed solar PV capacity (MW), 2008
• Figure 4.19: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed solar capacity (MW), 2008
• Figure 4.20: Key markets by new installed solar capacity (%), 2008
• Figure 4.21: US solar PV market (MW), 2008
• Figure 4.22: Solar PV manufacturers' market shares in US (%), 2008
• Figure 4.23: Technology cost reduction goals for residential PV systems ($/Wp), 2008
• Figure 4.24: Solar resource map for the US
• Figure 4.25: Forecasts for installed capacity and costs
• Figure 5.26: US cumulative installed hydropower capacity (GW), 2007
• Figure 5.27: US power generation from hydroelectric power (TWh), 2007
• Figure 5.28: US total average electric power from hydroelectric plants (%)
• Figure 5.29: Top 5 countries by hydroelectric power consumption (TWh), 2008
• Figure 5.30: Leading US states by cumulative capacity (Thousand MWh), 2009
• Figure 5.31: Ownership of hydroelectric plants in the US (MW), 2006
• Figure 5.32: US DOE Hydropower Program
• Figure 5.33: Feasible project US hydropower potential (MW)
• Figure 5.34: US generation, hydropower vs. other renewables (TWh), 1990-2030
• Figure 6.35: US cumulative installed summer capacity (MW), 2008
• Figure 6.36: Top 5 countries by cumulative installed capacity (MW), 2009
• Figure 6.37: Leading US states by cumulative capacity (MW), 2008
• Figure 6.38: US geothermal existing plant locations
• Figure 6.39: Geothermal resource map for the US
• Figure 6.40: US Geothermal potential capacity by 2025 (MW)
• Figure 6.41: Estimated earth temperature at 6.5 km depth in the US
• Figure 7.42: US cumulative installed capacity (MW) and Net generation (Thousand KWh), 2007
• Figure 7.43: US biomass net electricity generation (Thousand KWh), 2007
• Figure 7.44: Biomass gasification combined-cycle electricity costs (cents/ KWh), 2000-2020
• Figure 7.45: US biomass capacity projections, 2000-2020
• Figure 7.46: Biomass resources in the US
• Figure 8.47: Ocean energy resource map for the US
• Figure 9.48: US electricity sales by sector (bn KWh), 1980-2030
• Figure 9.49: US net generation by energy source (%), 2008-2030
• Figure 9.50: US reference case scenario capacity outlook to 2030 (GW)
• Figure 9.51: US reference case scenario outlook to 2030 (bn KWh)

List of Tables

• Table 1.1: US state Renewable energy Portfolio Standards (RPS)
• Table 1.2: Comparison of capital cost estimates ($/KW), 2003 and 2007
• Table 1.3: Levelized cost of generation by type ($/MWh), California 2007
• Table 1.4: Global comparison of cumulative installed renewable and alternative energy capacity, 2009
• Table 2.5: Non renewable resources depletion, 2009
• Table 2.6: Largest US state annual wind power increases (MW), 2008
• Table 2.7: Largest US state cumulative wind power (MW), 2008
• Table 3.8: Largest wind farms operating in the US (MW), 2008
• Table 3.9: Turbine manufacturer share in the US by capacity (MW), 2008
• Table 3.10: Top 20 US states for wind energy potential in the US (billion KWh)
• Table 5.11: Largest hydroelectricity dams in the US (MW), 2008
• Table 5.12: Costs parameters of hydro technologies
• Table 5.13: Site development costs of hydro technologies
• Table 6.14: Largest geothermal projects operating in the US
• Table 6.15: Cost parameters of a geothermal power plant (Cost $/KW), 2008
• Table 6.16: Top 10 states for geothermal energy potential in the US
• Table 6.17: US new geothermal project summary, 2009
• Table 8.18: Largest US projects in progress for wave and tidal energy (MW), 2009
• Table 8.19: Capital cost of wave energy power plants ($m), 2007