Renewable Energy Capacity in the EU: The current market, drivers to growth, future capacity forecasts

Table of Contents

Executive summary

• Energy security and environmental drivers
• Infrastructure
• Current state of EU energy market
• Wind capacity in the EU
• Solar capacity in the EU
• Future outlook for the renewable energy market

Chapter 1 Introduction

• Report introduction

Chapter 2 Energy security and environmental drivers

• Summary
• Introduction
• Energy security
• Fossil fuel generation and emissions
• Resource depletion and alternatives to oil
  • The pace of resource depletion
  • Liquid alternatives to oil
• Replacing existing capacity
• Environmental concerns
• Population growth
• CO2 emissions by country
• Global warming
• Renewable energy and energy efficiency targets in the EU

Chapter 3 Infrastructure

• Summary
• Introduction
• Interconnections
• Energy networks
• Current international interconnections
• Planned international interconnections
• Grid extension to accommodate renewables
• Grid infrastructure
• Grid connection issues
• Grid connection costs
• Intelligent grid management
• Grid upgrades
• Future renewable infrastructure/ grid requirements
• Med Ring
• African connection
• Intercontinental HVDC interconnection
• Super Grid
• EU wind map
• EU solar map

Chapter 4 Current state of the EU energy market

• Summary
• Introduction
• Energy demand in the EU (consumption)
• Total energy consumption
• Final energy consumption
• EU-27 electricity capacity
• Capacity factor
• Electricity installed capacity mix
• Wind capacity
• Solar capacity
• Geothermal capacity
• Hydropower capacity
• EU-27 electricity generation
• Gross electricity generation
• Recent installed energy capacity summary
• Percentage mix of what has been recently installed in Europe

Chapter 5 Wind capacity in the EU

• Summary
• Introduction
• The European wind market
• Leading countries
• Cumulative wind power
• New installed wind
• Installed capacity dominating the market
• Electricity production from installed wind power
• Wind capacity planned and under construction
• Drivers of European wind power market capacity
• The cost of wind power
  • Wind capital costs
  • Wind integration costs
• Government legislation effecting the wind market in Europe
  • Regulatory price-driven mechanisms
  • Quantity-based market schemes
  • Voluntary approaches
  • Indirect strategies
• Current wind support mechanisms in the EU

Chapter 6 Solar capacity in the EU

• Summary
• Introduction
• The European solar market
• Leading countries
• Cumulative solar capacity
• New installed solar capacity
• Solar capacity planned and under construction
• Drivers of European solar market capacity
• The cost of solar power
  • Competitiveness of grid-connected applications
  • Factors affecting PV cost reductions
• Government legislation effecting the solar PV market in Europe
  • Renewable energy ' Feed-in-Tariff' (REFIT)
  • Financing
  • Administration
  • Guaranteed grid access
  • Government and industry commitment

Chapter 7 Future outlook for the European renewable energy market

• Summary
• Introduction
• Future energy consumption
• Population growth
  • Population forecasts
  • Increased electrical generation capacity based on population growth
• Energy consumption and its impact
  • Overall energy consumption
  • Oil consumption
  • Future carbon emissions
  • Oil price rises
• Future energy consumption by type to 2020
• Renewable energy percentage mix to 2020
• Scenarios for implementation of renewable electricity generation capacity
• Wind growth to 2020
  • Onshore wind
  • Offshore wind
• Solar power growth to 2020
• Wind and solar cumulative capacity by 2020
• Other renewables
  • Problems with increasing mass hydropower capacity
  • Other renewable energy growth to 2020
• Issues with switching to renewable technologies
  • Capacity factor
  • Efficiency
• Conclusions
• Summary of issues
• Gross electricity production supplied by renewables
  • Electricity generation by type
  • Current generation mix
• Future final energy supplied by renewables
• Future European electricity generation scenarios
  • Reference scenario
  • High scenario
  • Low scenario

Appendix

• Bibliography
• References
• Primary and secondary data sources
• Index

List of Figures

• Figure 2.1: CO2 emissions by fuel (CO2/GJ), 2007
• Figure 2.2: Non renewable resources depletion (years), 2009
• Figure 2.3: Changing UK generation capacity format (MW), 2003-2007
• Figure 2.4: Replacing old capacity with renewables (MW), 2003-2007
• Figure 2.5: EU-27 Population growth (millions of people), 1998 to 2008
• Figure 2.6: EU-27 Population growth projection (millions of people), 2010-2060
• Figure 2.7: EU generated carbon emissions (Million Metric tonnes of Carbon), 2006
• Figure 2.8: EU 27 CO2 emissions by sector, 1990-2006
• Figure 2.9: CO2 levels in the atmosphere (PPM), 1959-2008
• Figure 3.10: Interconnectors in Europe, 2009
• Figure 3.11: Interconnectors in the North Sea, 2008
• Figure 3.12: The Mediterranean Ring, 2005
• Figure 3.13: European wind speed map
• Figure 3.14: EU Solar map, 2006
• Figure 4.15: Gross inland consumption - EU27 by fuel (in Mtoe), 2006
• Figure 4.16: Total EU-27 energy consumption by fuel (Mtoe), 2006
• Figure 4.17: EU-27 Energy consumption by fuel (% usage compared to 1990), 2006
• Figure 4.18: Explanation of capacity factor
• Figure 4.19: Energy capacity mix in Europe (GW), end 2008
• Figure 4.20: Installed power capacity in the EU (MW), 1990-2008
• Figure 4.21: New installed capacity in Europe by type (MW), 2008
• Figure 4.22: EU net increase/decrease in power capacity (MW), 2000-2008
• Figure 4.23: Annual installed capacity in the EU by type (% share), 1995 and 2007
• Figure 4.24: EU-27 electricity generation growth (%), 1990-2006
• Figure 4.25: New power capacity installed in 2008 (MW)
• Figure 5.26: Cumulative wind power installed in the EU (MW), 2008
• Figure 5.27: Life cycle carbon emissions (CO2 equivalent/GW)
• Figure 5.28: Additional installed wind capacity by year (MW), 1995-2008
• Figure 5.29: Germany, Spain and Denmark' s share of EU market for wind power (MW), 2000-2008
• Figure 7.30: Population growth forecast (billions of people), 1990-2030
• Figure 7.31: World market energy consumption (Btu), 1990-2008
• Figure 7.32: Primary energy consumption in the EU by fuel (Mtoe), 2008
• Figure 7.33: Population and oil consumption growth (bn), 1965-2007
• Figure 7.34: Global CO2 emissions growth (Million Metric Tonnes CO2), 1990-2030
• Figure 7.35: Europe energy consumption by type (Btu), 1990-2030
• Figure 7.36: High, reference and low onshore wind power scenarios for EU, (GW), 2010 to 2030
• Figure 7.37: Three offshore wind power scenarios for EU, (GW), 2010 to 2030
• Figure 7.38: EPIA EU Solar projection (GW), 2008-2013
• Figure 7.39: EurObserv' ER EU Solar projection (MW), 2006 to 2010
• Figure 7.40: Increasing solar cell efficiency (%), 1975-2008
• Figure 7.41: Generation technology comparison
• Figure 7.42: Share of generation in Europe by energy type (%), 2020

List of Tables

• Table 2.1: EU-27 energy dependency (consumption v imports Mtoe), 2008
• Table 2.2: Non renewable resources depletion, 2009
• Table 2.3: Biofuels comparison (Liters of Oil Yields), to 2009
• Table 2.4: EU renewable energy targets for 2020 (%)
• Table 3.5: Electricity consumption and exchanges in regions in Europe (TWh), 2006
• Table 4.6: Gross inland consumption (Mtoe), 2006
• Table 4.7: EU-27 final energy consumption (TWh), 2006
• Table 4.8: Typical capacity factors for power generating plants (%)
• Table 4.9: Gross electricity generation in EU-27 by type (GWh), 2006
• Table 4.10: EU-27 electricity production by source (%), 2006
• Table 4.11: Gross electricity generation from renewables in EU-27 (GWh), 2006
• Table 5.12: Wind power total and newly installed (MW), 2009
• Table 5.13: Wind offshore* power total installed capacity (MW), 2007 and 2008
• Table 5.14: EU27 Electricity production from wind power (MW), 2008
• Table 5.15: Wind power constructions and planning until 2015, Jan 2009
• Table 5.16: Comparison of capital cost estimates ($/KW), 2003 and 2007
• Table 5.17: Wind support schemes for EU-27 countries, 2008
• Table 6.18: Total cumulative solar photovoltaic installed (MW), ending 2008
• Table 6.19: Additional photovoltaic capacity installed in the EU (MW), 2008
• Table 7.20: Oil price per barrel (€ ), 2000-2030
• Table 7.21: Wind electricity production forecast to 2030 (TWh), 2008
• Table 7.22: Electricity generation matrix, 2006
• Table 7.23: EU electricity generation capacity (GW), 2006-2008
• Table 7.24: Energy consumption (TWh) and capacity growth (GW), 2008-2020
• Table 7.25: Reference EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh), 2008-2020
• Table 7.26: High EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh), 2008-2020
• Table 7.27: Low EU future electrical generation scenarios (TWh), 2008-2020