Abstract
Introduction
The emergence of a new wave of oncology products has been one of the most
dramatic trends in the pharmaceutical market over the last decade. Both large
and small companies are making unprecedented investments in oncology R&D, in
an effort to emulate the success of new targeted therapies such as Herceptin,
Avastin, Glivec, Nexavar and Erbitux.
Underpinning that success have been real improvements in therapeutic options
for a range of cancers, including marked survival increments in areas of poor
prognosis, such as kidney cancer (e.g., Sutent); more effective therapies,
tailored to genetically defined subgroups, for widespread malignancies
(Herceptin for breast cancer); and innovations that have transformed fatal
into chronic diseases (Glivec for chronic myeloid leukaemia).
At the same time, success has come at a price. Not is the oncology marketplace
getting more crowded, raising the bar for differentiation in a category in
which many products are focusing on the same disease mechanisms, but the
premium prices charged for newer therapies are stretching healthcare budgets.
Increasingly cancer drugs are losing the special status that once guaranteed
uptake at any cost and are coming under the same cost-effectiveness scrutiny
as other components of healthcare.
In today' s payer' s market, oncology companies are being forced to re-assess
their strategies and build a compelling value equation for their products that
will meet the needs of a whole range of stakeholders, each with their own
agenda. And they must do this while finding a way to recoup R&D costs from
niche products without the patient volumes that have driven blockbuster brands
in the past.
Key findings
- " Worldwide sales of cancer drugs are forecast to increase at a compound
annual growth rate of 12-15% from 2008, reaching US$75-80 billion by 2012.
That would represent almost double the projected growth rate for the
pharmaceutical market as a whole over the same period.
- " At the same time, growth of the category is expected to slow over the
next five years, with a diminishing contribution from the existing top
oncology markets - the US, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and Spain. These
countries accounted for 71% of oncology product sales worldwide in 2007. By
2012, however, their share of overall sales could be down to 65%.
- " Increased cost-sensitivity among payers, market crowding and the loss
of cancer' s ' special status' will make the market much for challenging for
established oncology players and new contenders over the next few years.
Key features of this report
- " Detailed analysis of the new forces driving growth in the worldwide
oncology market.
" Overview of the cost pressures on healthcare systems and growing recourse
to health technology assessment that are complicating market entry for new
cancer drugs.
" Analysis of NICE decisions on premium-priced oncology products, the wider
political context in which these decisions are taken, and what they could mean
for oncology players in other markets.
" Detailed exploration of how a multi-faceted value proposition needs to be
constructed for new cancer therapies, including survival benefits,
cost-effectiveness and more personal components such as quality of life.
Use this report to
- " Detailed understanding of the new growth drivers in the world oncology
market and the emerging threats to continued growth
- " Insight into how healthcare systems are evolving in their efforts to
manage cost inflation and how these changes present significant challenges to
oncology market growth.
- " Compare approaches to health technology assessment in key markets such
as the UK and the US; understand how these raise the bar to entry for new
oncology products.
- " Detailed insight into the different components of value that will
enable new cancer therapies to carve out niches in the new payer-dominated
environment.
Discover
- " What will be the market trend for oncology products in the years to
2012 and beyond?
- " How has the treatment paradigm for oncology changed in terms of
targeted therapies, niche indications and payer influence?
- " What are governments, HTA agencies, health insurers and other
influencers/payers in key markets such as the UK and the US doing to address
budgetary pressure from pharmaceuticals in general and new oncology products
in particular?
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