The Evolving Pharma M&A Landscape: Emerging trends and predicted post-blockbuster targets

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

• Pharmaceutical industry pressure points
• Can mega-mergers solve the industry' s problems?
• Big pharma M&A
• Generic industry M&A
• Biotech industry M&A

Chapter 1 - Pharmaceutical industry pressure points

• Summary
• Introduction

• Diminishing returns
• Stock market reaction

• Key factors behind the squeeze on big pharma
• Patent expiries
• Pharmaceutical cost-containment
• Deteriorating R&D risk/return ratios

• Adapting to the new market environment
• Cost-cutting and efficiency increases
• Enhancing pipelines
• Corporate restructuring

Chapter 2 - Can mega-mergers solve the industry' s problems?

• Summary
• Introduction

• The last wave of mega-mergers
• Mega-merger legacies
• Pfizer - transformed or transfixed?
  • The changing face of Pfizer
  • Measuring Pfizer' s financial performance
• Stock market judgments

• Pfizer tries again
• Transaction details
• Impact of the Wyeth acquisition
  • Portfolio
  • Geographical presence
  • Pipeline
  • Exposure to patent expiries
  • Finances
• Verdict on the Pfizer/Wyeth deal

• Merck seeks M&A shelter
• Transaction details
• Impact of the Schering-Plough acquisition
  • Portfolio
  • Geographical presence
  • Pipeline
  • Exposure to patent expiries
  • Finances
• Verdict on the Merck/Schering-Plough deal

• Looking beyond the mega-merger

Chapter 3 - Big Pharma M&A

• Summary
• Introduction
• Big Pharma' s financial muscle

• Recent M&A activity
  • M&A targets

• Future M&A trends
• The shrinking pharmaceutical village

• Pfizer
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • Bolstering the pipeline
  • Pfizer' s latest mega-merger
• Future M&A potential

• Merck & Co.
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • The move into biosimilars
  • A mega-merger designed to transform Merck' s fortunes
• Future M&A potential

• Sanofi-Aventis
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • Bolstering the pipeline
  • Building a generics business
• Investing in animal health
• Future M&A potential

• GlaxoSmithKline
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • Diversification
  • Supporting a push into emerging markets
  • Feeding the pipeline
• Future M&A potential

• Novartis
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographic reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • Focused diversification
  • Strengthening the pharma business
• Future M&A potential

• Roche
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • Gaining full control of Genentech
  • Accessing novel products and technologies
  • Strengthening the diagnostics business
• Future M&A potential

• AstraZeneca
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • The push into biologics
• Future M&A potential

• Johnson & Johnson
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • Targeting ‘convergence'
  • Strengthening the pipeline
• Future M&A potential

• Eli Lilly
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
  • Strengthening the pipeline
  • Bringing alliances in-house
• Future M&A potential

• Bristol-Myers Squibb
• Company background
• Portfolio and geographical reach
• Pipeline status
• Exposure to patent expiries
• Strategic direction
• Recent M&A activity
• Future M&A potential
  • Building a cash pile
  • Predator or prey?

Chapter 4 - Generic industry M&A

• Summary
• Introduction
• The generics market
• Consolidation of the generics market
• Big pharma involvement in generics

• Generic M&A targets
• Global targets
  • Teva
  • Mylan
  • Ratiopharm
  • Watson
  • Actavis
  • Stada
• National/regional targets
  • CEE and Russia
  • India
  • Japan
  • Australia
  • Brazil
  • Mexico

Chapter 5 - Biotech Industry M&A

• Summary
• Introduction

• Thed biotech market
• Leading biotech products
• Leading biotech companies

• Big pharma' s recent biotech buying spree
• Competition for biotech purchases

• Biotech M&A targets
• Leading revenue generators
  • Amgen
  • Gilead
  • UCB
  • Genzyme
  • Biogen Idec
  • CSL
  • Celgene
• Other potential biotech acquisition candidates
  • Crucell (Netherlands)
  • Amylin Pharmaceuticals (US)
  • Vertex (US)
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (US)
  • Human Genome Sciences (US)
  • Onyx Pharmaceuticals (US)
  • ThromboGenics (Belgium)
  • Spectrum Pharmaceuticals (US)
  • Proteolix (US)
  • Enzon (US)

Appendix

• Primary research methodology
• Index

List of Figures

• Figure 1.1: Global pharmaceutical sales and growth rates, 2001-2008
• Figure 1.2: US NME Approvals vs. R&D Spend, 1990 - 2008
• Figure 2.3: Performance of Pfizer stock, 2003-2008
• Figure 2.4: Structure of the expanded Merck & Co pharma portfolio
• Figure 3.5: Cash generated and held by leading pharma companies, 2008
• Figure 3.6: M&A spending and volume by company Jan 2007 - H109
• Figure 3.7: Pfizer' s therapeutic focus, 2008
• Figure 3.8: Merck & Co' s blockbuster products, 2008
• Figure 3.9: Sanofi-Aventis' s leading products, 2008
• Figure 3.10: Sanofi-Aventis pharmaceutical sales by region, 2008
• Figure 3.11: Sanofi-Aventis pro-forma generic sales, 2008, US$m
• Figure 3.12: Sanofi-Aventis net debt levels
• Figure 3.13: GSK pharmaceutical sales by region
• Figure 3.14: Novartis pharma sales by therapy area
• Figure 3.15: Novartis pharmaceutical sales by region
• Figure 3.16: Roche pharmaceutical sales by therapy area, 2008
• Figure 3.17: Roche pharmaceutical sales by region, 2008
• Figure 3.18: AstraZeneca pharmaceutical sales by therapy area, 2008
• Figure 3.19: AstraZeneca sales by region, 2008
• Figure 3.20: Insert figuretitlehere, with date where appropriate
• Figure 3.21: BMS pharma sales by therapy area, 2008
• Figure 4.22: Top 5 players in the ' core' generics market, 2008
• Figure 5.23: Leading biopharmaceutical company product sales, 2008
• Figure 5.24: Biotech and pharma industry stock performances

List of Tables

• Table 1.1: Global pharmaceutical sales and growth rates, 2001-2008
• Table 1.2: Leading brands facing patent expiry by 2014
• Table 1.3: Big pharma exposure to patent expiries
• Table 1.4: New drug approvals in the US, 1999-2008
• Table 1.5: Costs as a percentage of big pharma revenues, 2004 and 2008
• Table 2.6: Pfizer financials, 1997-99 and 2006-08
• Table 2.7: Performance of Pfizer stock, 2003-2008
• Table 2.8: Impact of the Wyeth acquisition on Pfizer' s portfolio
• Table 2.9: Anticipated change in Pfizer' s US/international sales split
• Table 2.10: Pfizer/Wyeth financial indicators
• Table 2.11: Structure of the expanded Merck & Co pharma portfolio
• Table 2.12: Merck & Co' s expanded list of blockbuster products
• Table 2.13: Change in the geography of the Merck & Co business
• Table 2.14: New entities in SP' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 2.15: Merck & Co/Schering-Plough financial indicators
• Table 3.16: Pharmaceutical company sales rankings
• Table 3.17: Cash generated and held by leading pharma companies, 2008
• Table 3.18: Net assets of leading pharma companies at Dec 2008
• Table 3.19: M&A spending by company since Jan 2007
• Table 3.20: M&A deal volumes since Jan 2007
• Table 3.21: Biggest M&A deals completed by the pharma top ten since January 2007
• Table 3.22: Big Pharma M&A targets
• Table 3.23: Pfizer company overview
• Table 3.24: Pfizer pharmaceutical sales by therapy area
• Table 3.25: Novel products in Pfizer' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 3.26: Pfizer exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.27: Pfizer acquisition activity
• Table 3.28: Merck & Co company overview
• Table 3.29: Merck & Co' s blockbuster products
• Table 3.30: Novel products in Merck & Co' s late-stage pipeline
• Table 3.31: Merck & Co' s exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.32: Merck & Co acquisition activity
• Table 3.33: Sanofi-Aventis company overview
• Table 3.34: Sanofi-Aventis' s leading products
• Table 3.35: Sanofi-Aventis pharmaceutical sales by region
• Table 3.36: Novel products in Sanofi-Aventis' s
• Table 3.37: Sanofi-Aventis exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.38: Sanofi-Aventis acquisition activity
• Table 3.39: GlaxoSmithKline company overview
• Table 3.40: GSK pharma sales by therapy area
• Table 3.41: Novel products in GSK' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 3.42: GSK' s exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.43: GSK acquisition activity
• Table 3.44: Novartis company overview
• Table 3.45: Novartis pharma sales by therapy area
• Table 3.46: Novel products in Novartis' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 3.47: Novartis' s exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.48: Novartis acquisition activity
• Table 3.49: Roche company overview
• Table 3.50: Roche pharmaceutical sales by therapy area
• Table 3.51: Roche pharmaceutical sales by region, 2008
• Table 3.52: Novel products in Roche' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 3.53: Roche' s exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.54: Genentech' s contribution to the Roche pipeline
• Table 3.55: Roche acquisition activity
• Table 3.56: AstraZeneca company overview
• Table 3.57: AstraZeneca pharmaceutical sales by therapy area
• Table 3.58: AstraZeneca sales by region
• Table 3.59: Novel products in AstraZeneca' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 3.60: AstraZeneca' s exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.61: AstraZeneca acquisition activity
• Table 3.62: Johnson & Johnson company overview
• Table 3.63: J&J' s leading pharmaceutical products
• Table 3.64: J&J' s US/international sales split
• Table 3.65: Novel products in J&J' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 3.66: J&J' s exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.67: J&J merger and acquisition spending
• Table 3.68: Lilly company overview
• Table 3.69: Lilly pharma sales by therapy area
• Table 3.70: Novel products in Lilly' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 3.71: Lilly' s exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.72: Lilly acquisition activity
• Table 3.73: ImClone' s development pipeline
• Table 3.74: BMS company overview
• Table 3.75: BMS pharma sales by therapy area
• Table 3.76: Novel products in BMS' s late-stage development pipeline
• Table 3.77: BMS exposure to major patent expiries
• Table 3.78: BMS acquisition activity
• Table 3.79: BMS proceeds from disposals
• Table 4.80: Top 5 players in the ' core' generics market, 2008
• Table 4.81: The ten biggest generic acquisitions completed since 2004
• Table 4.82: Major CEE pharmaceutical acquisitions
• Table 5.83: Development, commercialization and sales of leading biotech brands
• Table 5.84: Leading biopharmaceutical company product sales and revenues
• Table 5.85: Biotech M&A by top ten pharma majors, 2007 to date
• Table 5.86: Biggest recent biotech M&A deals
• Table 5.87: Biotech and pharma industry stock performances