Abstract
The new Roskill report on The Economics of Rare Earths and Yttrium will be
published in October 2007 and will provide up-to-date analysis of resources,
supply, demand, trade and prices. More than 100 detailed tables and figures
provide access to all the data you need at a glance.
There has been a significant change in the balance of supply and demand for
rare earth minerals in the past three years. Between 2003/04 and 2005/06 there
was a shift from a situation of surplus supply to one of surplus demand due to
a rapid increase in consumption and the constraints placed on Chinese supply.
Mine production in 2006 is estimated to have been around 155,000tREO compared
with total sales of around 105,000tREO.
While a theoretical yield of 75% would suggest an adequate mine supply this
disregards the high growth in demand for neodymium, which results in actual
mineral requirement of 160 170,000tpy REO. The shortfall has been met by a
draw down of producer and consumer stocks. Meanwhile stocks of other rare
earths, particularly cerium, continue to grow.
In recent years the growth in apparent global demand for processed rare earths
has been 8-9%pa, driven largely by average annual growth rates in China in
excess of 17%. As an increasing proportion of Chinese supply of REO is
consumed within China the potential for a shortfall of supply in the rest of
the world increases. This has focused attention on the re-opening of the
Molycorp operation in Mountain Pass, probable increased production of loparite
from the Kola Peninsula, Lynas Corp' s plans to process Mount Weld ore in
Australia and other potential sources such as the projects at Nolans Bore,
Hoidas Lake and Thor Lake.
This new report from Roskill provides a detailed examination of recent
developments in the supply of rare earths from China and evaluates prospective
producers in the rest of the world. It tracks the fastest growing markets for
rare earths in magnets and metal alloys and reviews the impact of the move to
flat screen displays on phosphor markets. Potential new applications for rare
earths are reviewed and their impact on the current imbalance in demand for
rare earth elements evaluated.
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