Abstract
Over the last five years global demand for all grades of fluorspar has grown
at an AAGR of just over 5% and demand for acidspar has increased at 6.8%pa. In
four out of the last five years demand has exceeded supply.
Over the same period exports of fluorspar from China have fallen by more than
500,000tpy as China has doubled its own consumption. The reduction in exports
of Chinese acidspar has been partially offset by increasing exports of HF and
AlF - at least until mid 2007 when a shortage of sulphuric acid had an adverse
affect on production and exports of HF. Future availability of HF for export
is likely to be adversely affected by an increased emphasis on the production
of downstream fluorochemicals in China.
The shortfall in the supply of fluorspar outside China, combined with
increasing freight costs led to a sharp increase in US, European and Japanese
import prices. At the beginning of 2002 US cif prices for acidspar were around
US$138.5/t rising to around US550/t in October 2008.
Demand for fluorspar from the chemical sector has grown at an average 9.7%pa
since 2003 compared to only 2.1%pa in the previous 5 years; while demand for
aluminium fluoride has increased by 6.6%pa compared with 3.2%pa in the
preceding five years - largely a reflection of increased aluminium output. The
use of metspar in steel manufacture has declined due to substitution and
better fluorine recycling.
A technology to enable production of HF from high arsenic fluorspar has been
developed in Mexico. This has expanded the pool of resources from which
acidspar suitable for HF manufacture can be drawn. Since 2001 significant mine
capacity has been added in China (650Ktpy), Mexico (300Ktpy) and Mongolia
(100Ktpy).
Future demand will be driven by growth in the aluminium and chemical sectors
although the impact of a recently agreed accelerated phase-out of HCFCs and
HFCs will dampen growth in fluorocarbons. Demand growth for aluminium will be
around 5%pa to 2020, but fluorspar demand will be moderated by environmental
and technical improvements and some increased use of fluorosilicic acid. The
use of fluorspar in the steel industry will continue to decline. Total demand
for fluorspar will increase by an average of 300Ktpy to 5.8Mt by 2010 and a
further 500ktpy in the next decade.
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