Abstract
Worldwide annual consumption of asphalt is at more than 100 million tons. In
the United States, generally 90% of liquid asphalt cement consumed is used for
road paving and approximately 10% is used for roofing products, with other
specialty applications accounting for only a very small fraction of
consumption.
Though asphalt occurs naturally, the majority of today' s asphalt is produced
as a residual product of the crude oil refining process. Most refiners focus
on refining more expensive, lighter, “sweeter” crudes to produce
the higher-value products such gasoline and diesel fuel. In all, about two to
three percent of all refined crude oil in the United States becomes asphalt.
Most crude oil asphalt comes from less expensive, heavier, “sour”
crude oils rather than the more expensive lighter, sweet crude oils. For crude
oil refiners asphalt accounts for a much larger portion of the product refined.
Demand for asphalt is driven to a small degree by the private sector, but most
demand comes from federal, state, and local governments. Funding for highway
and road infrastructure construction and maintenance plays the largest role,
but other public sector projects such as airport runway and taxiway
construction can also affect demand. Since funding for highway and road
construction and maintenance projects are often set for several years, demand
tends to remain rather constant growing more or less at the rate of inflation.
However, the recent prospect of massive infrastructure spending to stimulate
growth in the U.S. economy under the new Obama administration suggest demand
will likely increase significantly in the coming years.
Specialists in Business Information (SBI) estimates the U.S. market for liquid
asphalt cement totaled $11.7 billion in 2008, up 34% from $8.7 billion in
2007. This report explains why, and forecasts what lies ahead for the asphalt
industry from 2009 - 2013.
Scope of the Report
This SBI report contains data and analysis describing the U.S. market for
asphalt. The report focuses on the primary commodity market, refined liquid
asphalt cement, and the secondary product market, asphalt paving mixtures. In
addition, limited data and analysis are provided for the asphalt shingle and
coating materials manufacturing market (asphalt roofing products). Chapter 3
covers the liquid asphalt cement market while Chapter 4 covers the asphalt
paving mixtures and asphalt roofing products market. SBI refers to the asphalt
paving and roofing markets as the asphalt products market. Chapter 5 covers
the competitive landscape of asphalt refiners and blenders with data and
analysis on U.S. asphalt refining capacity and utilization including profiles
of major asphalt refiners, blenders, and paving mixture manufacturers. Chapter
6 looks at economic and market trends affecting the asphalt industry. Included
are an analysis and forecast through 2009 of gross domestic product (GDP), an
in-depth cost and price analysis of various components of the asphalt market
as well as the competing concrete market, and a look at the shift to warm mix,
eco-challenges and weather/seasonality trends.. Finally, Chapter 7 provides a
snapshot of the two end-user markets, asphalt paving and asphalt roofing.
Methodology
The market was derived primarily using data from government sources and
secondarily from aggregated sales data of liquid asphalt cement refiners and
asphalt paving mixture manufacturers collected by SBI. Statistics describing
the value of shipments through 2006 for both the liquid asphalt cement market
and the asphalt products market came from the U.S. Census Bureau' s Annual
Survey of Manufacturers. SBI provided estimates for 2007 and 2008.
Trade data on both markets were collected from two sources. Supply and
disposition data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which
includes import and export volume in barrels, combined with pricing data
derived by SBI was used to calculate the value of U.S. imports and exports in
the asphalt cement market. Import and export data from the U.S. International
Trade Commission (USITC) through 2007 and part of 2008 was used for the
asphalt products market. Figures for 2008 were estimated by SBI using monthly
data from both the EIA and USITC. SBI used the value of imports and exports,
along with shipment values, to derive apparent consumption or the value of
both U.S. markets. The market value was calculated as shipments + imports -
exports.
Other data sources include:
- U.S. Department of Commerce' s Bureau of Economic Analysis for GDP data,
with a 2008-2009 forecast by SBI.
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics for producer and commodity price indexes.
- U.S. Census Bureau, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the
U.S. Department of Agriculture for data on certain demand factors affecting
end-use markets.
- U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration and
assorted state agencies.
- The National Asphalt Paving Association, The Asphalt Alliance, and The
Asphalt Paving Association.
- Other government sources, major manufacturers, trade associations and
publications, and business journals.
In most cases, historical data are provided for 1999 through 2008, with
forecast data for 2009 through 2013. Other statistics are presented in longer
timeframes when appropriate, or shorter timeframes due to a lack of data.
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