Western World MMOG Market: 2006 Review and Forecasts to 2011

Table of Contents

Tables and charts

Executive summary

Introduction

• Overview of the report contents
• Feedback

Market definitions

• Sector cross-over leads to MMOG market fragmentation
• MMOG types
• MMOG genres
• MMOG settings
• MMOG origination and timeline
• 1980s
• 1990s
• 1997
• 1999
• 2000s
• 2003
• 2004
• 2005
• 2006

Methodology

• Exchange rates used
• Geographical scope of report

Addressable market for PC and console MMOGs

MMOG gamer demographics

• MMORPGamers
• More mass market
• Gender profile
• Social dimension
• Younger profile
• Young males the core market
• MMOGamer demographic expansion
• Younger users

MMOGs: A recent history and market overview

• Before and after: World of Warcraft
• MMOG strategies are a blueprint for the future of the online games industry

MMOG market value chain

• How the value chain is changing
• Virtual worlds and media market convergence
• Developers
• Middleware vendors
• In- and around-game advertising networks
• Distributors
• Publishers
• Platform owners
• Sony announces Home for the
• PlayStation 3
• Operators
• The financial challenges of MMOG operation
• ISPs
• Consumers

Content trends in 2006 and moving forward

• Content intellectual property trends
• Licensed IP trends
• Game IP trends
• Subscription market value by IP profile
• Platform support trends
• Platform support: existing content versus content pipeline
• Language support trends
• Subscriber market share by language support
• Content origin trends
• Content origin: existing content versus content pipeline
• Subscriber market value by content origin
• Content genre trends
• Content genre: existing content versus content pipeline
• Subscriber market value by content genre
• Game type trends
• Content setting trends
• Content setting: existing content versus pipeline
• Subscriber market value by content setting

Service business model analysis

• Subscription
• Strengths
• Weaknesses
• Virtual item purchase
• In- or around- game advertising
• CPM rates
• Corporate Use of Virtual Worlds
• Adverworlds
• Future business models
• User generated content
• Real money trade

Profitability and development cost

• Profitability
• Development perspective
• Middleware and software development tools
• Current performance of subscription
• MMOGs

Western World MMOG market size and forecast

• Other business models
• MMOG subscription forecast
• The broadband influence
• ARPU trends
• Individual title performance
• Publisher subscription market share
• Notes on player populations
• Challenges to business development in
• Europe
• Billing and payments solutions:
• Product localisation:
• Sales tax on computer services:

Country market share and forecasts

• Subscriber share
• Subscription revenue share

Appendix A

Tables and Charts

Executive summary

• Figure 1: Western World MMOG subscription revenue forecast to 2011
• Figure 2: 2006 Western World MMOG revenue share between business models
• Table 1: Top 10 Western World MMOG subscription titles by revenues

Introduction

Market definitions

• Figure 3: MMOG market fragmentation

Methodology

Addressable market for PC and console MMOGs

• Table 2: Addressable market for PC and console MMOGs, forecasts to 2011

MMOG gamer demographics

• Table 3: MMORPGamer demographic profile
• Table 4: Neopets user demographic profile
• Table 5: Gaia Online user demographic profile
• Table 6: Habbo Hotel user demographic profile

MMOGs: A recent history and market overview

• Figure 4: Europe - End of year MMOG subscribers 2004 & 2005
• Figure 5: Europe - MMOG subscription revenue 2004 & 2005
• Figure 6: North America: End of year MMOG subscribers 2004 & 2005
• Figure 7: North America - MMOG subscription revenue 2004 & 2005
• Figure 8: Games sector cross over with MMOGs
• Figure 9: Connected content opportunity scale

MMOG market value chain

• Figure 10: MMOG market value chain

Content trends in 2006 and moving forward

• Figure 11: Commercially available titles: licensed IP versus non-licensed IP
• Figure 12: Titles in development - Licensed IP versus non-licensed IP
• Figure 13: Share of titles based on licensed IP - commercially available versus in development or beta
• Figure 14: Commercially available titles: established game IP versus new game IP
• Figure 15: Titles in development based on established game IP versus new game IP
• Figure 16: Share of titles based on established game IP: commercially available versus in development or beta
• Figure 17: 2006 Subscription market value by licensed IP versus non-licensed IP
• Figure 18: 2006 Subscription market value by established game IP versus new game IP
• Figure 19: Platform support for all commercially available titles
• Figure 20: Platform support for titles in development
• Figure 21: Share of titles with console support: commercially available versus in development or beta
• Figure 22: Commercially available titles: share of titles supporting individual languages
• Figure 23: Top 20 subscription titles: share of titles supporting individual languages
• Figure 24: Share of subscribers by game language availability, 2006
• Figure 25: Share of subscribers by title language support, 2006
• Figure 26: Commercially available titles: Geographical origin
• Figure 27: Titles in development:Geographical origin
• Figure 28: European origin titles share of market: commercially available versus in development or beta
• Figure 29: Top 20 subscription titles: Geographical origin
• Figure 30: Commercially available titles: geographical origin
• Figure 31: Titles in development: Key country market origin
• Figure 32: Subscriber market value by content origin, 2006
• Figure 33: Commercially available titles: game genre share
• Figure 34: Titles in development: game genre share
• Figure 35: Top 20 subscription titles: game genre share
• Figure 36: Subscriber market value split by genre, 2006
• Figure 37: Commercially available titles: share by game type
• Figure 38: Titles in development: share by type
• Figure 39: Commercially available titles: share by game setting
• Figure 40: Titles in development: share by game setting
• Figure 41: Fantasy setting share of titles comparison -commercially available, in development or beta, and top 20 subscription titles
• Figure 42: Sci-Fi setting share of titles comparison: commercially available, in development or beta, and top 20 subscription titles
• Figure 43: Subscriber market value split between settings, 2006

Service business model analysis

• Figure 44: Commercially available titles: share between business models
• Figure 45: 2006 Western World MMOG revenue share between business models
• Figure 46: Virtual item purchase business model
• Table 7: Key MMOG titles/platforms using virtual item (or currency) purchase business models
• Table 8: Key MMOG titles/platforms using in- or around-game advertising

Profitability and development cost

• Figure 47: Operating profit margin for a selection of MMOG publishers/operators
• Table 9: AAA title revenue generation years 1-5 at 70% retention/$30m development costs
• Table 10: Boutique, independent or casual title revenue generation years 1-5 at $1m development costs
• Table 11: Middleware vendors

Western World MMOG market size and forecast

• Figure 48: Western World 2006 MMOG market
• Table 13: North America and Europe MMOG subscribtion market, forecasts to 2011
• Figure 49: MMOG subscription penetration of online households - North America versus Europe
• Figure 50: North America: Average annual MMOG subscriber growth compared to average broadband household growth, forecast to 2011
• Figure 51: Europe: Average annual MMOG subscriber growth compared to average broadband household growth, forecast to 2011
• Figure 52: Average monthly MMOG subscription per user, forecast to 2011
• Figure 53: Western World 2006: Share of subscribers by leading 10 titles
• Figure 54: Western World 2006: Share of subscription revenue by leading 10 titles
• Table 14: Top 10 MMOG titles 2005/2006 subscriber numbers and growth
• Table 15: Top 10 MMOG titles 2005/2006 subscription revenue and growth ($)
• Table 16: World of Warcraft subscriber numbers by region
• Table 17: Top 10 MMOG subscription publishers, 2006
• Figure 55: Top 10 publisher share of MMOG subscription market, 2006

Country market share and forecasts

• Figure 56: North America average annual subscribers by country (000s)
• Figure 57: Europe average annual subscribers by country (000s)
• Table 18: Western World MMOG average annual subscribers by country, forecast to 2011
• Figure 58: North America MMOG subscriber revenue by country ($000s)
• Figure 59: Europe MMOG subscription revenue by country ($000s)
• Table 19: Western World MMOG subscription revenue by country, forecast to 2011
• Figure 60: Europe market share by country, 2006
• Figure 61: Europe forecast market share by country, 2011

Appendix A

• Table 20: Western World MMOG titles in development or beta testing
• Table 21: Commercially released Western World MMOG titles