Report: Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2009 TOC

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children' s Book Market and Buyer Demographics

Introduction
Who Are the Buyers?
Girls Are Still Reading More Than Boys

Table 1.1: Who Is Buying Most of the Children' s/YA Titles in Your Store?
Table 1.2: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with No Children in Household vs. One or More
Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with One or More Children in Household
Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buying Books as Gifts
Table 1.5: Describe the Gender Mix of Children' s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store

Chapter 2: Trends in Children' s Book Publishing

Introduction
- Growth in Children' s/YA Business Outpacing Adult Trade
- The Role of the Internet Still Evolving
Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
Series Keep Rising
Series Case Study: Harry Potter
Fewer Authors Responsible for More Books
Trade Paperback Gaining Favor
Motion Picture Tie-Ins
Retailers and Publishers' Relationships and Influence Changing
Teen Book Market Growth Outpacing Young Children' s

Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade
Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2008 vs. 2007
Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
Table 2.4: Percentage of Children Who Read a Book the Previous Day
Table 2.5: Percentage of Time Spent Reading While Using Other Media
Table 2.6: Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2004-2009P
Table 2.7: NYT/USA Today Children' s Bestsellers, July 2007-June 2008
Table 2.8: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-FY2007
Table 2.9: Average Bestselling Titles per Author
Table 2.10: What Format of Children' s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong/Weak Performer So Far in 2008?
Table 2.11: How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children' s Books in Terms of How They Sell?
Table 2.12: Top 20 Books to Movies, 2002-2007
Table 2.13: New York Times Performance of Louis Sachar' s Holes, 2001-2005
Table 2.14: Children' s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists
Table 2.15: When Looking at Children' s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?

Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints

Introduction
New York Times Series Bestsellers
USA Today Bestsellers
- Bestselling Books
- Bestselling Authors
- Leading Imprints
Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
- Bestselling Books
- Bestselling Authors
- Leading Imprints
Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title

Table 3.1: No. of New Children' s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2008
Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2006-June 2007
Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.11: Leading Children' s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison, July 2006-June 2008
Table 3.12: Bestseller Comparison by Publisher, 2007

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

Introduction
Leading Children' s Publishers
- Candlewick Press
- Disney Publishing Worldwide
- Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
- HarperCollins
- Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
- Macmillan
- Penguin Group (USA)
- Random House
- Scholastic
- Simon & Schuster
Revenue Trends
Valuation Trends
Size of the Children' s Publishing Market
Leading Children' s Publishers by Revenue
First-Half Comparisons, 2008 vs. 2007
Forecast for Balance of 2008 and Early 2009

Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children' s Trade Book Market, 2006-2010P
Table 4.3: Leading Children' s Publishers by Estimated Revenue, 2006-2010P
Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children' s/YA Category Net Sales
Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children' s/YA Category Returns

Table 5.1: Leading Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2006-June 2007
Table 5.2: Leading Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008
Table 5.3: Leading USA Today Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008
Table 5.4: New Children' s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2003-2007
Table 5.5: Select Category Ratings, 5-Year Overview
Table 5.6: Action & Adventure 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.7: New Children' s/YA Action & Adventure Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.8: Animals 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.9: New Children' s/YA Animal Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.10: Family & Relationships 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.11: New Children' s/YA Family & Relationships Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.12: Fantasy 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.13: New Children' s/YA Fantasy Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.14: Graphic Novel 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.15: New Children' s/YA Graphic Novel Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.16: History 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.17: New Children' s/YA History Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.18: Horror 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.19: New Children' s/YA Horror Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.20: Horror & Ghost 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.21: New Children' s/YA Horror & Ghost Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.22: Humor 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.23: New Children' s/YA Humor Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.24: People & Places 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.25: New Children' s/YA People & Places Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.26: Religion 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.27: New Children' s/YA Religion Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.28: Schools & Education 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.29: New Children' s/YA Schools & Education Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5:30: Science Fiction 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.31: New Children' s/YA Science Fiction Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.32: Social Issues 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.33: New Children' s/YA Social Issues Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.34: Social Science 5-Year Bestseller Performance
Table 5.35: New Children' s/YA Social Science Titles vs. All Juvenile Titles
Table 5.36: Total Juvenile Hardcover Titles Published, 2003-2007
Table 5.37: Total Juvenile Softcover Titles Published, 2003-2007

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

Introduction
Where Books Are Being Purchased
Children' s/YA Through the Lens of Bookstores
Mass Merchandisers and Children' s Book Retailing
Big Three Chains' Dim Outlook for 2008
- Barnes & Noble
- Borders Group
- Books-A-Million
Profit Margins at the Big Three Chains
Physical Store Locations
New Retail Book Sales Outlets Continue to Emerge
Online Bookselling
Book Clubs, Fairs and Direct-to-Consumer Sales

Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends
Table 6.2: Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
Table 6.3: What % of Your Business Is Comprised of Children' s/YA Sales
Table 6.4: What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?
Table 6.5: Is Your Store Planning a Midnight Party or Some Other Special Event when Breaking Dawn Is Released?
Table 6.6: What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children' s/YA Titles Found?
Table 6.7: How Effective Are the Following Children' s/YA Promotional Efforts?
Table 6.8: Bestselling Children' s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2008
Table 6.9: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, 2004-2007
Table 6.10: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2004-2007
Table 6.11: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2003-2007
Table 6.12: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2007
Table 6.13: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2007

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

Conclusions
Other Recommendations

Table 7.1: Revenue Growth, Children' s Trade Book Market, 2006-2010P
Table 7.2: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Their Child' s Reading Habits

Profiles of Leading Children' s Book Publishers

Candlewick Press
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette Book Group
HarperCollins
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House
Scholastic
Simon & Schuster

Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2009

Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children' s Book Market and Buyer Demographics

Chapter 2: Trends in Children' s Book Publishing

Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

Chapter 5: Category Trends

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

Profiles of Leading Children' s Book Publishers