Publishing for the PreK-12 Market 2009-2010

Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Industry Size and Structure

• Introduction
• Tough Market Slows Growth Over Five Years
• Instructional Materials Decline in 2008; Improvement Uncertain in 2009
  • Textbooks Maintain Position as Largest Segment
  • Print Supplements Show Weakness
  • Growth for State Tests Levels Off
  • Courseware Generates Growth, Modular Software Slips
  • Appeal of Manipulatives Persists
  • Books, Video and Periodicals
  • Electronic Media Continues to Advance
• Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Tops Simba' s PreK-12 Publisher Index
  • HMH, Pearson & McGraw-Hill Dominate PreK-12 Publishing
  • Carnegie Sees Greatest Growth; LeapFrog Slides the Most
• Operating Performance Captures the Spotlight
• Expectations for Revenue Growth
• M&A Activity Constricts in Scope
  • Indian Firms Penetrate U.S. K-12 from Textbooks to Technology
  • Exit Strategies in K-12
  • Quasi-Sales Through Distribution Agreements
  • Some Optimism for M&A in 2009

• Table 1.1: U.S. Elementary & Secondary Education At-a-Glance
• Table 1.2: 5-Year Sales Trends, 2003-2008
• Table 1.3: Sales of Print and Electronic Media to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2007-2009P
• Table 1.4: Market Share of Media in U.S. Classrooms, 2009P
• Table 1.5: Simba Information' s PreK-12 U.S. Publisher Index, 2007-2009P
• Table 1.6: PreK-12 Mergers & Acquisitions Index, Jan. 2008-April 2009

Chapter 2: Enrollment and Demographics

• Introduction
• Public Enrollment vs. Private Enrollment
• Fastest-Growing States for K-12 Enrollment
• Fastest-Growing Counties for K-12 Enrollment
• Growth Rates Vary Across Largest Districts
• Schools Growing More Diverse
• More Special Needs Students in Schools
• Homeschool Enrollment Growing
• Record-Breaking Births
  • Birth Rate Projected to Fall

• Table 2.1: Total Public/Private Projected PreK-12 Enrollment, 2008-2017P
• Table 2.2: Enrollment in Public and Private Schools, 2008-2017P
• Table 2.3: States Experiencing Largest Enrollment Increases, 2008-2009 vs. 2007-2008
• Table 2.4: 25 Counties with Largest Enrollment Increases, 2008-2009
• Table 2.5: 25 Districts with Highest Number LEP/ELL Students
• Table 2.6: 25 Districts with Highest Number IEP Students
• Table 2.7: States Experiencing Largest Birth Increases
• Table 2.8: Projected Number of Annual Births, 2008-2019

Chapter 3: Funding

• Introduction
• Title I Receives an Additional $10 Billion
• School Improvement Grants
• Tapping Special Education Funding
• Technology Funding on the Rise
• Longitudinal Data Systems to Expand
• Funding at the State Level
• Clouds in Large Adoption States
• Impact of Stimulus Varies Across States
• Average Per-Pupil Spending on Instructional Materials Is $257
• Looking to Fiscal 2010

• Table 3.1: Federal Education Appropriations, Fiscal 2008-2009P
• Table 3.2: U.S. Dept. of Education Title I State Grant Allocations, 2008-2009
• Table 3.3: School Improvement Grant Allocations, 2008-2009
• Table 3.4: IDEA Funding
• Table 3.5: Educational Technology Grant Allocations, 2008-2009
• Table 3.6: Statewide Data System Grants, 2009
• Table 3.7: Fiscal 2010 State Budget Outlook
• Table 3.8: State Stabilization Funds
• Table 3.9: Instructional Materials Expenditure by State

Chapter 4: Textbooks and Adoptions

• Introduction
• Textbook Sales Decline in 2008
• Reading and Mathematics Lead Disciplines in Sales
• Textbook Market: Adoption States and Open Territories
• Elementary Sales Outpace Secondary Sales in 2007
• 2008 Should Have Been a Contender
• Harcourt, Houghton Mifflin Combine to Lead 2008 Publisher Scorecard
• Pearson, McGraw-Hill Titles Dominate K-5 Best-Sellers; HMH in 6-8
• Forecast: Adoption Market Declines in 2009
  • California Reading
  • Language Arts in Florida
  • Math in Five States
  • Early Purchasing in 2009
  • 2010 and Beyond
  • Texas OKs Science Standards

• Table 4.1: Textbook Share of Instructional Media Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2007 vs. 2008
• Table 4.2: Top 10 Disciplines for Elementary Textbooks, 2007
• Table 4.3: Top 10 Disciplines for Secondary Textbooks, 2007
• Table 4.4: Basal Sales, Adoption States vs. Open Territories, 2002-2007
• Table 4.5: Elementary and Secondary Textbook Sales, Top 10 States, 2007
• Table 4.6: Textbook Adoption States
• Table 4.7: Simba Information' s Adoption Scorecard, 2008
• Table 4.8: Simba' s Best-Selling Textbook Series, 2008
• Table 4.9: California' s Adopted Reading K-8 Materials, 2009
• Table 4.10: Publishers in Florida' s 2009 Language Arts, Literature and Music Adoption

Chapter 5: Supplementary Materials

• Introduction
• Electronic Supplementals More Attractive
• Print Supplementals Still a Substantial Market
  • Trade Books and Magazines Maintain Niche
  • Science Drives Manipulative Market
• Supplemental Publishers Have Ups and Downs
• Deciding on Supplementals
• Future of Supplementals

• Table 5.1: Sales of Supplemental Instructional Materials to the U.S. PreK-12 School Market, 2007-2009P
• Table 5.2: Simba Information' s Supplemental Publisher Index, 2007-2009P

Chapter 6: Trends and Forecasts

• Common Standards and State Tests
• Digital Momentum
• Tapping Open Resources
• An Uncertain Market

• Table 6.1: Sales Forecast of Key Instructional Materials Used in U.S. Classrooms, 2008-2012P

Company Profiles

• American Education Corp.
• Carnegie Learning
• Curriculum Associates
• EMC/Paradigm
• Goodheart-Willcox
• Haights Cross Communications
• Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
• Inspiration Software
• LeapFrog
• McGraw-Hill Education
• Pearson Education
• Peoples Education
• Plato Learning
• The Princeton Review
• Questar Assessment
• RD School & Educational Services
• Renaissance Learning
• Scholastic
• School Specialty
• Scientific Learning
• Voyager Learning