Report: Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2010 TOC

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children' s Book Market and Buyer Demographics

Introduction
Who Are the Buyers?
Girls Are Still Reading More Than Boys

Table 1.1: Who Is Buying Most of the Children' s/YA Titles in Your Store?
Table 1.2: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Adults Who Have Purchased Children' s Books
Table 1.3: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Buyer Overview Spring 2007/Winter 2009
Table 1.4: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with No Children in Household vs. One or More
Table 1.5: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) with One or More Children in Household
Table 1.6: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults) Buying Books as Gifts
Table 1.7: Describe the Gender Mix of Children' s/YA Book Buyers at Your Store 15

Chapter 2: Trends in Children' s Book Publishing

Introduction
- Children' s/YA Business vs. Adult Trade: What' s Healthier?
Children and Young Adults Are Reading Less
The Role of the Internet, Electronic Components Still Evolving
Series Still Rising
Series Case Study: Harry Potter
Fewer Authors Responsible for More Books
Trade Paperback Still Gaining Favor
Motion Picture Tie-Ins
Retailers and Publishers Relationships and Influence Changing
Teen Book Market Growth Outpacing Young Children' s

Table 2.1: Growth of Juvenile Trade vs. Adult Trade
Table 2.2: Bookstores Compare the First-Half Performances of Adult Trade and Juvenile, 2009 vs. 2008
Table 2.3: Percentage of Children Who Read Almost Every Day for Fun
Table 2.4: Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun, by Age
Table 2.5: Frequency with Which Children Read Books for Fun
Table 2.6: Percentage of Children Who Read a Book the Previous Day
Table 2.7: Percentage of Time Spent Reading While Using Other Media
Table 2.8: Growth of Series in Title Output as a Percentage of Total Books Published, 2004-2009
Table 2.9: NYT/USA Today Children' s Bestsellers, July 2007-June 2008
Table 2.10: NYT/USA Today Children' s Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 2.11: Scholastic Revenue, FY2000-2008
Table 2.12: Average Bestselling Titles per Author
Table 2.13: What Format of Children' s/YA Has Been a Particularly Strong Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?
Table 2.14: What Format of Children' s/YA Has Been a Particularly Weak Performer in the First Half of 2009 vs. 2008?
Table 2.15: How Would You Rate the Following Formats of Children' s Books in Terms of How They Sell?
Table 2.16: Top 20 Books to Movies, 2002-2008
Table 2.17: Children' s Titles on Weekly Bestseller Lists (NYT, USA Today)
Table 2.18: When Looking at Children' s and Young Adult Titles Separately, How Would You Say Your Business Is Trending?
Table 2.19: What Age Range Are Your Most Successful Children' s/YA Titles Found?

Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints

Introduction
New York Times Series Bestsellers
USA Today Bestsellers
- Bestselling Books
- Bestselling Authors
- Leading Imprints
Composite Analysis of USA Today and New York Times Lists
- Bestselling Books
- Bestselling Authors
- Leading Imprints
Comparing Parent Publishers: Total Bestsellers and Weeks per Title

Table 3.1: No. of New Children' s/YA Titles Appearing on NYT & USA Today Bestseller Lists, July 2006-June 2009
Table 3.2: Top 20 New York Times Series, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.3: Top 20 New York Times Series Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.4: Top New York Times Series Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.5: Top 20 USA Today Bestsellers, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.6: Top 20 USA Today Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.7: Top 20 USA Today Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.8: Top 20 Authors, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.9: Top 20 Authors, July 2007-June 2008
Table 3.10: Top 20 Imprints, July 2008-June 2009
Table 3.11: Leading Children' s Book Publishers, Two-Year Comparison, July 2007-June 2009
Table 3.12: Comparison of Publishers, July 2008-June 2009

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

Introduction
Leading Children' s Publishers
- Candlewick
- Disney Publishing Worldwide
- Hachette/Little, Brown Books for Young Readers
- HarperCollins
- Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
- Macmillan
- Penguin Group (USA)
- Random House
- Scholastic
- Simon & Schuster
Revenue Trends
Valuation Trends
Size of the Children' s Publishing Market
Leading Children' s Publishers by Revenue
First-Half Comparisons, 2008 vs. 2007
Forecast for Balance of 2009 and Beyond

Table 4.1: Harry Potter-Only Revenue, Scholastic
Table 4.2: Revenue Growth, Children' s Trade Book Market, 2007-2011P
Table 4.3: Leading Children' s Publishers, 2007-2011P
Table 4.4: AAP Results: Children' s/YA Category Net Sales
Table 4.5: AAP Results: Children' s/YA Category Returns

Table 5.1: Leading Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2007-June 2008
Table 5.2: Leading Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.3: Leading USA Today Children' s Book Categories by No. of Bestselling Titles, July 2008-June 2009
Table 5.4: New Children' s/YA Titles vs. All New Titles Released, 2004-2008
Table 5.5: Select Category Ratings, Six-Year Overview
Table 5.6: Action & Adventure Bestseller Performance
Table 5.7: Vital Statistics - Action & Adventure
Table 5.8: Animals Bestseller Performance
Table 5.9: Vital Statistics - Animals
Table 5.10: Family & Relationships Bestseller Performance
Table 5.11: Vital Statistics - Family & Relationships
Table 5.12: Fantasy Bestseller Performance
Table 5.13: Vital Statistics - Fantasy
Table 5.14: Graphic Novel Bestseller Performance
Table 5.15: Vital Statistics - Graphic Novel
Table 5.16: History Bestseller Performance
Table 5.17: Vital Statistics - History
Table 5.18: Horror Bestseller Performance
Table 5.19: Vital Statistics - Horror
Table 5.20: Horror & Ghost Bestseller Performance
Table 5.21: Vital Statistics - Horror & Ghost
Table 5.22: Humor Bestseller Performance
Table 5.23: Vital Statistics - Humor
Table 5.24: People & Places Bestseller Performance
Table 5.25: Vital Statistics - People & Places
Table 5.26: Religion Bestseller Performance
Table 5.27: Vital Statistics - Religion
Table 5.28: Schools & Education Bestseller Performance
Table 5.29: Vital Statistics - Schools & Education
Table 5.30: Science Fiction Bestseller Performance
Table 5.31: Vital Statistics - Science Fiction
Table 5.32: Social Issues Bestseller Performance
Table 5.33: Vital Statistics - Social Issues
Table 5.34: Social Science Bestseller Performance
Table 5.35: Vital Statistics - Social Science
Table 5.36: Total Juvenile Hardcover Titles Published, 2003-2008
Table 5.37: Total Juvenile Softcover Titles Published, 2003-2008
Table 5.38: Class Share of E-Book Bestsellers, 2008-2009

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

Introduction
Where Books Are Being Purchased
Children' s/YA Through the Lens of Bookstores
Mass Merchandisers and Children' s Book Retailing
Performance and Outlook of the Big Three Chains
- Barnes & Noble
- Borders Group
- Books-A-Million
Profit Margins at the Big Three Chains
Superstores and Small Format Store Closings
Online Bookselling
Book Clubs, Fairs and Direct-to-Consumer Sales

Table 6.1: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Sales Channel Trends
Table 6.2: Number of Physical Stores, Big Three vs. Big Box
Table 6.3: What % of Your Business Is Comprised of Children' s/YA Sales?
Table 6.4: What % of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Buyers Bought Another Book at the Same Time?
Table 6.5: How Effective Are the Following Children' s/YA Promotional Efforts?
Table 6.6: Bestselling Children' s Books at Select Retail Store Web Sites, 2009
Table 6.7: Revenue Growth, Leading Bookstore Chains, Fiscal 2004-2008
Table 6.8: Growth in Superstore Sales, Major Retail Chains, 2004-2008
Table 6.9: Big Three Bookstore Chains Operating Performance, 2004-2008
Table 6.10: Number of Superstore Outlets, 2003-2008
Table 6.11: Revenue of Leading Online Booksellers, 2004-2008
Table 6.12: Overview of Book Purchasing Population (U.S. Adults), Channel by Type of Book Buyer

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

Conclusions
Other Recommendations

Table 7.1: Things Parents Have Done in Relation to Child' s Reading Habits
Table 7.2: Revenue Growth, Children' s Trade Book Market, 2006-2010P

Profiles of Leading Children' s Book Publishers

Candlewick Press
Disney Publishing Worldwide
Hachette Book Group
HarperCollins Publishers
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt
Macmillan
Penguin Group (USA)
Random House
Scholastic Corp.
Simon & Schuster

Children's Publishing Market Forecast 2010

Table of Contents

Methodology

Executive Summary

Chapter 1: Overview of the U.S. Children' s Book Market and Buyer Demographics

Chapter 2: Trends in Children' s Book Publishing

Chapter 3: Leading Authors, Books and Imprints

Chapter 4: Market Sizing and Forecasts

Chapter 5: Category Trends

Chapter 6: Distribution and Retail Sales

Chapter 7: Forecasts and Conclusions

Profiles of Leading Children' s Book Publishers