Abstract
Rising energy and oil prices in light of the economic slowdown and a
heightened awareness of the environment, have led to an increase in global
incentives for the diversification of energy sources and greater utilization
of renewable energy segments. In this context, one of the important renewable
energy segments is solar power, which at present is witnessing a stupendous
growth in installed base as well as a doubling of demand.
The total installed capacity for solar photovoltaic cells (SPVC) in the
moderate scenario (as outlined by GreenPeace), wherein commitment from country
governments is assumed to continue albeit at a low level, is expected to
exceed 5,200 MW by 2010. Developing economies such as China, India and Taiwan
are expected to contribute the maximum to this capacity addition. However,
there is some risk of the utilization levels plummeting in the event of
incentives being discontinued or reduced, given that capacity already exceeds
demand and heavy initial investments can deter demand.
High competition and achieving cost effectiveness through innovation are the
broad characteristics of the SPVC industry. At the end of 2008, there were
more than 150 manufacturers of solar cells and modules, in the global SPVC
industry. Companies such as Q-Cells, Sharp and Kyocera are major participants
in the industry and the top 10 players in the industry account for over half
of its production. Competition is also equally rife between crystalline
silicon solar cell manufacturers and thin film solar module manufacturers.
Thin-film technology is expected to dominate the production of SPVCs in the
coming years, judging by the cost advantages and increasing acceptance levels.
From the demand perspective, most of the consumption of SPVC came from Europe
in 2008 with Spain and Germany being the largest consumers.
Government initiatives have been the major growth drivers as well as
responsible for driving investments in the field. Notable among these is the
German Feed-in Law introduced in 1999, driving photovoltaic system
installations in Europe. The Japanese government has encouraged technology
development in the area of SPVC to combat the shortage of natural conventional
energy sources. Despite the lack of uniform incentives for the implementation
of solar PV systems in the US, the California Public Utilities Commission
(PUC) has begun to offer performance-based incentives since 2007.
Propelled by such initiatives, large players have focused on research and
development activities to capitalize on the favorable politico-economic
conditions that will drive growth in the SPVC market in the future. For
example, First Solar spent $33.5 million towards research and development in
2008, which is approximately twice the amount spent in the previous year while
Sun Tech spent $15.3 million in 2008. Owners of technology in the SPVC area
are also key stakeholders in this industry as their intense research activity
during this boom period is aimed at monetizing their technologies by licensing
them to participants in the SPVC industry and seek benefits from this
favorable market trend.
In line with this trend, patenting activity in terms of number of
patents/applications filed under the SPVC technology, across geographies viz.
US, EP and JP, during the period 2003-2008 has been high. A family analysis on
these patents/applications showed that they account to 7,854 distinct patent
families (inventions), a majority of which was first-filed within the analysis
period (2003-2008), while the patenting activity of the remaining started
early in the period 1991-2002.
Of the analyzed patent filings, Japan had the highest number of patent
filings, closely followed by the US. Japan had the highest number of patent
filings among the three geographic regions, from 2003 until 2006, after which
the US has emerged as the leader. However, of the total patent filings made in
EP, less than 15% were first filed in EP. Most patents were first-filed in
Japan itself. Japan had a substantial level of dominance in US patent filings
too, where more than 25% of the patents filed in US, were first filed in Japan.
An analysis on the assignees holding the patent families indentified Sharp
Corp, Kyocera Corp, Sanyo Electric Co Ltd. and Canon Inc. as dominating
patenting players. These four companies proved their dominating presence not
only in the home ground (Japan) but also in the US and EP.
Although subsidies and incentives have created some large solar-based electric
power installations, the true potential for large solar-based electric power
installations has not been fully realized. Inventors are on road to launching
light, low-cost thin film growth techniques, innovative cell structures and
module manufacturing costs. This can be evidenced from the patent filing
activity which shows that more inventions are filed in Third and Fourth
Generation solar cells rather than the conventional First and Second
generation solar cells.
A study of the patents reveals that the over the next five years, solar cell
wafer thickness reduction to less than 200 micron wafers and a long-term
assumed price of about $20/kg for solar-grade polysilicon is possible, and
this may reduce the polysilicon feedstock cost (in g/Wp) by about a factor of
four to eight to about $0.10/Wp to $0.20/Wp. Thus, ongoing technological
investments and ensuing developments will enable solar cell manufacturers to
use novel solar cell designs that can vastly reduce their manufacturing cost
and increase their ease of installation.
Overall, the patenting activity indicates that the ultimate goal of the SPVC
industry - becoming cost competitive compared to the traditional electricity
generation techniques without the current incentives - may indeed be achieved.
At present, incentives are the key drivers of growth in the global solar
energy industry. Incentives encourage corporations and local governments to
utilize more solar power by increasing investments in solar technologies. Such
investments ultimately boost the sales of solar power related products,
thereby motivating producers to achieve a manufacturing scale that would
otherwise be considered impractical, if the demand was insufficient . With
more cost-effective technologies coming to the fore, players are likely to be
in a position to offer SPVC solutions to customers with lower level of initial
investments, and drive further market growth in the years to come.
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