Abstract
During 2005, the mobile wireless networks market generated $62.2 billion in
revenue, growing at an annual rate of 11.3 percent. Over the next seven years,
the mobile wireless networks market will grow at a compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 7.1 percent, reaching $100.4 billion in 2012. With steep declines in
prices of network equipment, the market is being driven by deployments of
basic mobile wireless access in developing countries and transition to higher
speeds in industrialized countries.
WCDMA is the fastest growing technology, giving WCDMA networks unprecedented
economies of scale and helping lower equipment costs. HSPA, a higher-speed
version of WCDMA, is being enhanced in stages. The first stage, known as
HSDPA, is designed to increase downlink speeds to up to 14.4 Mb/s. The second
stage, known as HSUPA, is designed to increase uplink speeds to up to 5.76
Mb/s. By 2012, HSPA will become the de facto global standard.
EDGE is being deployed by operators with limited spectrum or as a complement
to WCDMA in suburban and rural areas. EDGE networks will become more
spectrally efficient with the transition to "EDGE Evolution" beginning in
2007. Revenues from the CDMA technology family will gradually decline and,
during the forecast period of this report, mobile operators with CDMA2000
networks will begin to switch to HSPA or EDGE Evolution. This will relegate
CDMA2000 to a niche status.
Along with the transition of the radio interface to higher speeds, the core
network is being enhanced with deployments of IMS. The standardization of base
station interfaces is facilitating the migration of manufacturing operations
to contract manufacturers. Moreover, with increasing service competition,
operators are outsourcing network operations to equipment vendors in order to
focus on marketing, sales, and customer service.
The market has witnessed the emergence of smaller vendors, who were
traditionally confined to regional markets, on the global scene. These include
vendors from Japan, South Korea, and China who are staking out a claim to
leadership in Third Generation (3G) networks.
This report profiles the top thirteen mobile wireless network vendors, and
provides their revenue broken down by region. TELECOM TRENDS INTERNATIONAL
divides these vendors in "Tiers" with Ericsson, Nokia, and Siemens placed in
Tier 1, Motorola, Nortel Networks, Alcatel, and Lucent in Tier 2, and NEC,
Huawei, ZTE, Fujitsu, Samsung, and LG in Tier 3.
Figure 1 gives the share of mobile infrastructure revenue by vendor-type for
2005. The collective share of Tier 1 vendors declined from 48.5 percent in
2004 to 47.7 percent in 2005, despite the fact that Ericsson gained market
share in 2005. Similarly, the share of Tier 2 vendors declined from 33.2
percent in 2004 to 32.7 percent in 2005. The share of rest of the vendors
increased, going up from 18.3 percent in 2004 to 19.6 percent in 2005.
This report analyzes all three components of a mobile wireless network -
access, core, and services - and makes projections on the share of each of
these components over a seven-year period. During this period, the share of
the "services" sector will increase as a percentage of total network revenue.
The report examines the distinguishing characteristics of 4G networks. As
traffic on existing networks mounts, the primary driver for 4G networks will
be the need for additional capacity. Nevertheless, these networks will be
geared toward providing a seamless experience to the end-user, allowing the
device to switch from one network to the other depending on a user's physical
circumstances.
The report provides seven-year forecasts for all regions of the world broken
down as follows: Western Europe, Eastern Europe, Middle East, Africa,
Asia-Pacific, China, North America, and Latin America. The report provides
seven-year forecasts for all major technologies.
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