Will 3G Networks Cope?

Abstract

OVERVIEW

Since 2007, 3G networks worldwide have experienced substantial traffic growth, due to strong take-up of mobile broadband services and the initial migration of 2/2.5G users to 3G services. Operators have reported annual increases in 3G data traffic volumes of 300 - 700%.

While 3G traffic volume increases have been manageable so far - because volumes have increased from very low levels - we forecast further large traffic volume increases, due to rapid migration of 2/2.5G users to 3G services, increasing proportions of smartphones and USB modems/ datacards and the introduction of HSPA+ and LTE.

For some 3G operators, today' s HSPA networks will not support 3G traffic volumes for long, and they have big decisions to make.

• How will the service mix on a range of 3G devices (basic phones, smartphones and USB modems/datacards) evolve over the next five years?
• By how much will 3G traffic volumes increase in the next five years?
• What capacities will HSPA, HSPA+ and LTE networks realistically provide?
• Will 3G network capacity keep up with traffic volume increases?When will HSPA networks run out of capacity?
• When will HSPA+ and LTE be necessary, and what spectrum will be required?
• What are the implications for different types of 3G operator?

• The risks are huge. 3G volumes are increasing dramatically and HSPA networks may not be able to support these increases for long.
• This report is unique in bringing together forecasts for 3G traffic volumes and network capacities.
• The report identifies the technologies 3G operators should invest in, and when.
• It quantifies how much spectrum will be required, and when.
• The report defines the best strategy for different types of 3G operator.

• 120 pages, 35 figures, 24 tables and 30000 words.
• Usage forecasts for 2009 - 2014 derived from a comprehensive usage model.
• Quantification of network capacities for HSPA, HSPA+, LTE and LTE-Advance, for different spectrum allocations and deployment scenarios.
• Modelling of complementary delivery mechanisms to 3G macrocells, including WLAN access points, femtocells, broadcasting networks and sideloading.
• Evaluation of different types of 3G operator.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath co-founded Unwired Insight Limited in 2001, following many years experience in network operators and equipment vendors. Unwired Insight provides research and consultancy in wireless technologies and services.