Abstract
Summary
“Finally. A model for predicting the price fall of generics proven to
have worked for 99% of drugs”
It has long been recognised that prices paid by chemists and doctors for a
generic product decline in the weeks and months after generic launch and
patent expiry. But calculating how quickly this happens can often only be
guessed at - until now
How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices - A practical method to
estimate future generic product prices is a unique guide that will help
you be able to forecast future generic prices before and after launch.
Specifically designed to be instantly usable, this publication, presents a
tried and tested methodology to predict how the price of a generic medicine
will fall after patent expiry and launch.
The practical guide, which is produced by URCH Publishing in association with
WaveData, a medical price analysis company, will allow users to build
spreadsheets and forecast products prices as required.
The model presented is based on solid methodology drawing from over 6 year' s
work (over 60,000 hours) cataloguing 6 million pharmaceutical prices. A 120
real-life examples of generic product were studied to find patterns of price
decay.
The model takes into account both regional drug reimbursement policies and the
brand value of the product.
20 tables provide detailed percentage points according to the number of
generic licence holders entering the marketplace post patent-expiry.
The model works in the absence of government price capping, where the price
decay happens as a result of competition between suppliers (free pricing)
rather than statuary price reductions, and the reimbursement price is high
enough to allow free pricing.
5 Reasons to Invest in this Report
- Stop using “rule of thumb” to calculate the decline in price
- Adopt the suggested methodology immediately
- Easily understandable, designed for the non-statistician
- Follow clear instructions to build your own spreadsheet models
- Adjust the number of expected competitors with first 3 years of launch
This unique guide is a must have for all:
- Pricing and reimbursement executives
- Marketing Managers in Generic Drug Companies
- Strategy directors in pharmaceutical companies
- Consultancies with an interest in pharmaceutical markets
Buy this model and get a year' s FREE subscription to PROfesy CR an online
modelling tool to forecast generic erosion.
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