How to Forecast Generic Pharmaceutical Prices

Table of Contents

• 1. Summary
• 2. Introduction
• 3. Mechanism
• 4. Background to the study
  • Modelling
  • Reimbursement
  • Brand value
  • Regional factors
• 6. A Step By Step Guide to Forecasting the Decline in a Generic Drug Price 10 7.
• Conclusion

Appendix 1. Calculation Tables According to Number of Generic Licence Holders 20

Appendix 2. Sterling (£) exchange rates 1 June 2006 40 References

List of Figures:

• Figure 1. Generic Price Decay
• Figure 2. Variations in Price Decay of Generics (Time vs. Percentage Fall)
• Figure 3. D Factor used in calculations
• Figure 4. Reduction in forecast value due to various D factors
• Figure 5. Generic Prescribing in the UK, 1996-2006
• Figure 6. D Factor used in calculations
• Figure 7. Enter reimbursement price in Spreadsheet
• Figure 8. Reimbursement price for 36 months
• Figure 9. Estimate number of licence holders
• Figure 10. Enter number of generic competitors over 36 months
• Figure 11. Find appropriate calculation table
• Figure 12. Number of generic licence holders may vary
• Figure 13. Find 36 monthly values
• Figure 14. Calculate the % of original reimbursement price
• Figure 15. Calculate the % of original price each month
• Figure 16. Multiply forecast by % of reimbursement price
• Figure 17. Final Generic Forecast 18