Abstract
Executive Summary and Conclusion
This, the third market analysis report on microsystems, is issued by NEXUS,
the European microsystems network, in collaboration with WTC - Wicht
Technologie Consulting. The analysis in this report provides a comprehensive
assessment of the microsystems markets for the period spanning the years 2005
till 2009. This assessment, although building on previous results published by
NEXUS in October 1998 and February 2002, provides a hard reappraisal of the
market from an up to date perspective. In this context, this study, which was
undertaken by a team of international experts, consolidates previous notions
for the potential future of microsystems in terms of the target applications
within existing markets as well as new directions and opportunities.
Overall, this study safely concludes that Microsystems (including MST/MEMS)
sensors and actuators are consolidating their position in established markets
and finding new applications, leveraging a combination of advantages ranging
from low manufacturing costs, compact size, low weight and power consumption,
as well as increased intelligence and multifunctionality. Over the next five
years, this market is predicted to grow at a rate of 16% per year from $ 12
billion in 2004 to $ 25 billion in 2009 across a spectrum of 26 MST/MEMS
products. Considering the historical definition of NEXUS - the smallest unit
commercially available - the market will grow from $ 36 billion in 2004 to $
52 billion in 2009.
Meteoric growth of consumer electronic segment.
Unsurprisingly, the IT peripherals domain will continue to be the largest
sector for microsystems in terms of product numbers and market size. This
sector will be dominated by read/write heads and inkjet printheads which will
account for approximately $ 12 billion by 2009.
The automotive sector will remain a major application field with several
high-volume products such as airbags and tire pressure monitoring systems
(TPMS). Quantities in terms of the numbers of units will continue to grow at a
rapid pace; however, the growth in revenue will be moderate due to the
continuous pressure on prices. For example; gyroscopes will see a growth rate
of 15% per year in terms of units but a moderate 8% in revenue.
Of particular note, however, is the predicted meteoric growth of the consumer
electronics segment which is forecasted to treble the microsystems market size
over the period 2004 to 2009. This market segment will, it is estimated,
account for almost a quarter of the total $ 25 billion microsystems business
by 2009. NEXUS identified the three prime drivers for MST/MEMS in this
consumer electronics sector as being:
- Large screens High Definition Television for everybody. Indeed, the market
for rear projection TVs is predicted to be skyrocketing from 6.5 million units
in 2005 to 11.9 million units in 2009 according to iSuppli Corp.
- More storage in digital equipment. Hard Disk Drives (HDD) used within
digital video cameras, music players, smart phones... Shipment of HDDs is
expected to explode in consumer electronics from 10 million units in 2004 to
200 million units in 2009.
- Mobile/cellular phone handsets... offering multi-functionality, including
telephony! With the introduction of MST/MEMS accelerometers by ADI into cell
phone by NTT Docomo in September 2003, a number of other MST/MEMS products are
following suit including pressure sensors, gyroscopes, micro-displays, micro
fuel cells, and micro-fingerprint security monitors, liquid lenses,
thermopiles etc.
Market sectors by MST/MEMS products: micro-displays are the new blockbuster
As an overall summary, this latest market study has assessed a total of 26
microsystems based products. Chief among these are the read/write heads and
micro-displays, which it is predicted will overtake inkjet heads by 2009. Fast
growing markets for microphones, RF MEMS, and tire pressure monitors are also
examined along side to the more established pressure and motion sensors, which
are increasingly being driven by consumer applications.
RW heads will still represent around 51% of the market in 2009. Traditional
applications for PCs will grow moderately; however, the RW market is
experiencing a renaissance in consumer electronics as hard disks are being
deployed within music players (e.g. in the famous i-pod), in smart phones
(Samsung introduced the first cell phone with HDD in 2004), as well as in
digital video cameras, set top players, DVD recorders, etc.
Inkjet heads will continue to be one of the most profitable markets for
MST/MEMS. The main driver for inkjet heads over the next 4 years is the
printing of digital photos - especially those produced from cell phone
cameras. This market is seen to be growing at 15% to 20% per annum. A major
trend is the integration of non-disposable inkjet heads in the printer instead
of disposable print heads in cartridges. Following the lead by Epson and
Canon, HP are starting to ship printers with integrated print head. This will
slow down the growth in units; however, the value of these non-disposable
print heads is likely to be 3 to 5 times higher none the less.
Microdisplays are believed to be the blockbuster component for the 2004 - 2009
period. Revenues for Micro-displays will it is estimated overtake those from
inkjet heads by 2009 as Texas Instruments is forging ahead with the digital
light processors (DLP) chips for front projectors and rear projection TVs.
Indeed, DLP technology dominated the front projector market with almost 40%
market share in 2004 and is also dominating the large screen rear projection
market segment. The emergence of new MST/MEMS micro displays products such as
iMoD displays for mobile handsets from Qualcomm is also worth noticing.
This NEXUS study has also identified new and emerging components servicing a
range of markets which include wafer probes, liquid lenses for auto focus/zoom
in camera phones, micro-motors, micro-spectrometers, micro-pumps and
micro-reaction products. In addition, this study has also considered products
that will begin to impact markets towards the end of the decade, namely micro
fuel cells, MST/MEMS memories and e-fuses, and chip coolers. Components that
are currently in the research phase, but can be expected to see strong
commercial pull enabled by both application potential and already existing
demand.
Conclusion
The MST/MEMS market volume was worth $12 billion in 2004 and is expected to
reach $25 billion in 2009. The growth is still rapid: 16% CAGR in revenue
terms over the period 2004-2009. Consumer electronics will drive market growth
over the next 4 years.
Within this estimate, the report identifies 14 products, each of which is
expected to establish a market presence of more than $100 million by 2009. In
addition, a umber of brand new entrants will add around $250 million to the
total market by that time. This NEXUS report details the products and their
predicted market share, and provides a comprehensive review of the underlying
technologies, the main players and status from 2004 through to 2009.
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