PV TEM 2009

Abstract

EQUIPMENT MARKET

For several years, the Photovoltaic (PV) industry was primarily seen as an outstanding financial investment, delivering a high-performance returnon- investment (ROI) with limited risk. The objectives were simply to adapt the production capacities to answer a high market demand. In this context, Polysilicon and wafer producers, cell and module manufacturers were assured to sell their entire production.

But 2009 has been quite particular as the financial crisis has not spared the PV industry. The credit crunch, lower-thanexpected market growth, and a large product offer have in fact forced companies to be more innovative than ever. In this highly competitive market, only the companies able to provide better products at a lower price will succeed. As a consequence the whole PV chain, from polysilicon producers to module manufacturers, is working on new technical solutions to reach grid parity and finally make PV a competitive renewable energy source. Government incentives as well as new power grid structure (e.g. smart grid) will contribute, in the coming years, in making PV a viable alternative to conventional energy sources such as coal or nuclear. As cost reduction has become one of the top priorities for equipment and material suppliers, we are today seeing them partnering with cell manufacturers to pull production cost down.

Worldwide investments in R&D as well as in cell production capacity have reached an unprecedented level. Cell manufacturers will start benefiting from economies of scale in the coming years, but innovation in the field of material and equipment will remain a key parameter to sustain the growth. Manufacturers will develop more and more new technologies based on well-established techniques from various industries such as semiconductor, display, printing, glass, etc.

Even with a slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2008, the market, boosted by demand for thin-film equipment, was incredibly high that year. Yole is estimating that total revenue exceeded 2.7 Billion euro. Until the end of 2009 and during 2010, because of strong overcapacities, total revenue is forecast to decrease by 45% compared to 2008 to 1.5 Billion euro. Market demand is forecast to come back after 2010 and will progressively impact the production sites by increasing the fab utilization rates. Investments in fab extensions and related equipment are expected to follow in 2011 although they will arrive with a slight time lag behind the demand increase.

A large number of companies invested polysilicon manufacturing capacity:

1. Incumbents such as Hemlock, Wacker and REC are in the process of doubling even tripling their production capacity while keeping a low manufacturing cost.

2. Motivated by a silicon shortage and high prepayments, a lot of new players have purchased Siemens-type equipment and entered the market in 2009: DC Chemical, LDK, GCL Poly Energy, etc.

3. We also observed new developments in:

• Low-cost technologies such as Fluidized Bed Reactor with players like AE polysilicon, MEMC, or Peaksun
• Upgraded metallurgical grade promoted by Becancour, 6N Silicon, Dow Corning, etc.

The thin-film industry has also seen major announcements from Nanosolar or Solyndra, setting performance at the next level up while decreasing the cost per watt. Thanks to revolutionary cell designs and new production concepts, the firms are now positioning themselves as challengers to First Solar.

First Solar, considered by many as a true game-changer, definitely demonstrated its strong leadership and managed to build a Giga-Watt factory in just a few years. We also followed the various trends and alliances created by the entrance of Applied Materials, Oerlikon Solar, Ulvac and the other OEM' s.

After a large run after thin-film equipment, a lower demand and a decrease of the silicon price, we are now seeing an impact on sales in this domain.

PROCESSES DESCRIBED

Yole Developpement has studied and analysed the manufacturing processes of nine of the most common PV technologies:

• 1. Wafer based
• 2. Thin wafer based
• 3. a-Si
• 4. Tandem: a-Si/μ-Si
• 5. III-V
• 6. CIS/CIGS
• 7. CdTe
• 8. Dye sensitized solar cells
• 9. Organic solar cells

Through this report you will get clear analyses regarding technology maturity: Some reached mass production through standard or proprietary manufacturing process while others are still developing innovative but low-cost manufacturing techniques.

Yole also points out specific challenges and issues for each process, brings key answers and evaluates the potential market for equipment and material suppliers.

Suppliers providing lasers, screen printers, wet benches, furnaces, CVD and PVD systems as well as the material suppliers associated to them should be aware of the photovoltaic market opportunities detailed in this report. The report will particularly emphasize crucial processing steps in which market players are heavily investing.