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Market Research Report

SiC'10 - How SiC will impact electronics: A 10 year projection

Published by Yole Developpement Contact us : +1-860-674-8796
Published 2009/10 Content info 260 slides
Product code YD82357
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Description TOC

Table of Contents

Glossary

Executive summary

  • Our vision of SiC market in the next 10 years. Conditions of success...
  • SiC-based device revenues and related 2008 company market shares
  • 10-years projection of SiC power device market size split by applications
  • Relative market shares of SiC power applications to 2019
  • Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2008-2019 in units and $, split by diameter
  • Comparison with 2008 report: what we saw, what we missed, what has moved...
    • 2009 noteworthy news
    • 2008 noteworthy news
    • The new entrants since 2005
    • Recent known funding for SiC development
    • Main manufacturing steps of the SiC device processing
  • From Silicon to SiC: Total Accessible Market analysis p17
    • Positioning of the SiC devices in the Silicon world
    • Silicon vs. SiC device characteristics
  • “Reality of silicon & expectations of SiC”
    • Possible applications for SiC devices in Silicon power electronics
    • Market segmentation of SiC applications as a function of voltage range
    • SiC device market shares in %, split by voltage range to 2019
    • SiC device applications roadmap
  • Time to market
    • Main applications accessible to SiC
  • Specs / market data of today silicon device market
    • Estimated accessible markets, growth rate, and time to market for SiC-based power electronics
    • % of SiC device market over the total Silicon discrete power device market to 2019
    • 2008 Top-15 power electronics company revenues (based on overall revenues in the Silicon power electronics)
    • Conclusion

SiC industry outlook

  • Main SiC fabs in Europe
  • Main SiC fabs in the US
  • Main SiC fabs in Japan
  • Main SiC fabs in Asia (Apart of Japan)
  • Positioning of the main companies over the SiC value-chain
  • Some recent strategies and choices for next-gen power devices technology
  • Research Programs. France: G2REC
  • Research Programs. Europe: MANSiC
  • Research Programs. Japan:

Low-Voltage Applications

  • Power Factor Corrector Market
    • PFC market main metrics
    • SiC or GaN main added-value in PFC circuits
    • PFC efficiency comparison as a function of junction T° and Schottky diode type (Si, SiC and GaN)
    • TOP 15 OEM power supply manufacturers and related involvement in SiC & GaN
    • SiC or GaN device main market requirements for PFC applications
    • Comparison of Si, SiC or GaN diode cost in a PFC module
    • 2008 SBD cost breakdown model projection From SiC 4” wafer to 6A packaged dies
    • 2005-2019 SiC Schottky diodes market forecasts in units and revenues for PFC
    • 2005-2019 SiC Schottky diodes wafers consumption for PFC business
    • 2005-2019 substrate market value for SiC Schottky diodes in PFC business
    • Discrete SiC SBD available on the market as off Q3 2009
    • Conclusion and perspectives

Medium-Voltage Applications

  • EV/HEV market
    • EV/HEV types and availability: Micro, Mild, Full and plug in Hybrid
    • HEV/EV principles and functionalities:
    • Projection of market shares of EV, HEV & FCV over ICE to 2019
    • Sales projection for EV/HEV to 2019 in million units
    • Why SiC in cars ?
    • Current device technologies in use
    • 2 key power modules: DC-DC boost converter and DC-AC inverter
    • Expected improvements of SiC introduction in HEV
    • The TOP 5 key requirements for power transistors in HEV (according to Toyota)
    • Roadmap for operation voltage in HEV
    • Industrial supply-chain and typical market prices from modules to power train
    • Added value analysis of SiC electronics for HEV: fuel consumption and money savings
    • Overview of Toyota HEV power module
    • HEV inverter module cost breakdown
    • Silicon vs. SiC HEV inverter cost breakdown
    • Sales projection for Silicon and SiC devices in EV/HEV inverters to 2019
    • 4” and 6” SiC substrate volume projection for SiC devices in HEV to 2019
    • SiC device suppliers - car manufacturers relationships
    • Conclusion: perspective for SiC devices in the HEV
  • Inverters for solar panels
    • Electric parameter of solar cells
    • Solar market segmentation
    • Installed base and annual demand of PV in MW to 2019
    • Inverter module key parameters
    • Cost breakdown of a solar installation and inverter cost in $/kW
    • Typical cost breakdown of a single string inverter for residential application
    • Trends in PV voltage
    • First SiC inverter demonstrators: Fraunhofer ISE (D)
    • First SiC inverter demonstrators: Kassel Institute (D)
    • Electronic devices in PV inverters
    • TOP-5 solar inverter main manufacturers
    • SiC for solar power
    • Volume and market of PV inverters split by type 2008-2019
    • Device market for PV inverters. % of SiC market penetration and related size
    • Market volume for SiC wafers for PV inverters
  • UPS (Uninterrupted Power Supply) market
    • Global UPS market: Market value, main uses and worldwide sales
    • UPS products segments
    • Projection of world UPS market to 2019, split by power range
    • UPS vendors market shares
    • UPS architectures examples
    • 2007-2019 Silicon and SiC device market forecasts in UPS applications
    • 2006-2019 SiC substrate market forecasts in USP applications
    • Conclusion: SiC success chances in the UPS segment
  • Industrial motor AC drives market
    • AC drives applications
    • Motor drives history
    • AC drives market generalities
    • 2008-2019 projection for AC drives market as a function of power range
    • Less than 10 % of electric motors in the world are fitted with an AC drive.
    • AC drives Total Accessible Market Volumes
    • AC drives market shares
    • AC Drives Supply-Chain
    • AC drives electronic architecture
    • SiC in AC drives: Results from Rockwell Automation
    • SiC in AC drives: Others initiatives
    • Total Accessible Market for SiC in AC Drives
    • 2008-2018 Silicon and SiC device market value in AC drive applications
    • SiC substrates market in units and $ for Motor AC drive applications
    • Conclusion: Success chances for SiC in drives applications

High-Voltage Applications

  • Rail traction
    • From grid to IGBT: Typical voltage range
    • Estimation of the world market share of train rolling stock manufacturers
    • Main voltage ranges implemented by major train manufacturers
    • Main parameters for the calculations and definitions. 2007 starting point
    • World market volume for IGBT modules used in rail transportation, split by voltage
    • Tentative roadmap for SiC introduction in rail transportation. Device (chip) market
    • SiC substrate market size for Rail Traction
  • Smart Power Grid :
    • Electrical grid management trends
    • Growing need for electricity : will double from 2004 to 2030
    • Transition from today architecture to tomorrow distributed network and smart grid management
    • Architectures of Smart Power Distribution Sytems: HVDC & FACTS
    • HVDC and FACTS use
    • HVDC and FACTS main advantage
    • HVDC and FACTS market data
    • HVDC standard and HVDC light from ABB
    • Voltage Source Converters - HVDC light
    • Typical IGBT setup in an HVDC light system
    • Estimated worldwide HVDC installed capacity in MW
    • FACTS (Flexible AC transmission systems) technologies
    • FACTS technologies
    • Example of supply-chain in power grids
    • Estimation of market size for Silicon and SiC devices (chips) in both HVDC & FACTS applications
    • SiC substrate market size for both HVDC & FACTS applications
  • Ships and vessels propulsion
    • Market segments
    • Ships definition
    • Example of propulsion setup
    • Market outlook. Annual demand in units
    • Current Silicon IGBT use and hypothesis
    • IGBT module shipments in units
    • Market for power devices in ships & vessels propulsion
    • SiC substrate market in Units and $ for Ships and Vessels propulsion
  • Wind Power Market: Power converters for wind turbines
    • Installed base and annual demand in GW and units
    • Annual installed capacity geographical breakdown
    • Wind turbine architecture
    • Wind turbine generators and power converters
    • Variable speed wind power electrical characteristics
    • Variable speed wind turbine inverters
    • Industrial supply-chain
    • Wind turbines market trends
    • Typical architecture of a 2MW Double Fed Induction Generator (DFIG): 80% of the market
    • 6-pack Silicon IGBT module and diode market for wind turbine
    • Transistor + diode market for wind turbines in Silicon and SiC market penetration
    • SiC substrate market in Units and $ for Wind Turbines
    • Conclusions

SiC substrates market

  • What has changed in 08?
  • State-of-art in SiC crystal growth
  • SiC material: from polytype to devices
  • From powder to SiC epi-ready wafers Sublimation (PVT) technique
  • SiC crystal growth techniques comparison table
  • Main SiC material manufacturing site locations Bulk and/or epi-foundry
  • 2009 estimated SiC substrates monthly production
  • Material polytypes, doping & orientation commercially available
  • 2006, 2007 & 2008 SiC substrate vendor revenues & related market shares (n-type and S.I.)
  • Key accounts of main SiC material vendors 2008 status
  • SiC epi-house and epi-service offers
  • Wafers diameter evolution in production for Power Electronics
  • Wafers diameter evolution in production for GaN/SiC LED
  • Wafers diameter evolution in production for GaN/SiC RF devices
  • 2005-2019 SiC row substrates price evolution split by type (S.I. / n-type) and diameter (2”, 3”, 4” and 6”)
  • Volume dependency of SiC n-type pricing as a function of the lot size. Example for 3” and 4”
  • Comparison SiC/Si for cost of raw substrate for a 1 Amp device
  • Impact of the off-cut on the ingot yield
  • SiC epitaxy: typical process time
  • Overview of SiC epi-reactors installed-base (non-exhaustive list)
  • Market projection for SiC substrates in various applications 2008-2019
  • Conclusion

SiC Technology: Discrete device & Power Module

  • $/mm2 for SiC row substrate and processed device in 2009 and 2015
  • SiC power devices: chips size and power density
  • Current density SiC material price pushes for high A/mm2
  • Current density (A/mm2) roadmap for SiC devices in production
  • SiC transistor: who is active?
  • SiC device voltage range covered by main companies (Prod. or R&D)
  • 2010 MOSFET cost breakdown model projection From 4” wafer to 1200V/100A packaged dies
  • SiC MOSFET: state-of-the-art
  • SiC diodes: state-of-the-art
  • SiC JFET state-of-the-art
  • SiC BJT: state-of-the-art
  • SiC Thyristor: state-of-the-art
  • Main power module products implementing SiC devices
    • AIST 300kVA SiC inverter
    • Mitsubishi Electric 3.7kW SiC inverter
    • Mitsubishi Electric 11kW SiC inverter
    • CREE / Kansai Electric 100 kVA SiC Inverter
    • Peregrine Power
    • APEI Inc.
    • SatCon Power Systems

General conclusion. Perspectives of the SiC industry

  • Appendix
  • Sumitomo Metal Industries Liquid Phase Epitaxy process
  • SiC epi-reactor LPE-EPI (Milano, italy)
  • SiC epi-reactor Epigress (Aixtron Group)
  • CREE company profile
    • 2008 fiscal year results (Ended June 29th, 2008)
    • Distribution of 2007-2008 revenues
    • re-building of CREE-OSRAM business relations
    • 2005 to 2008 analysis: breakdown by main customers
    • Location & Size
    • Facilities Equipmen
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