Abstract
Is there a life for bulk GaN substrate out of the blue laser diode business? How material price decline will open new doors in lighting and power applications...
From blue lasers to lighting and power electronics
Today bulk or Free-Standing (FS) GaN substrate market is mostly driven by the
blue laser diode production only and its related application in high-density
data storage. This market is strongly boosted by the Bluray players and game
stations strong demand.
From 2011 and most likely 2012, Ultra-High Brightness (UHB) LEDs will start
handling part of the bulk-GaN production. That will only be possible along
with bulk-GaN price severe declining. We do forecast that the critical
threshold is below $1,500 for a 2" "LED-grade" substrate. Only such a price
level will act as leverage for LED market take-off.
2012-2013 will also see the introduction of new power devices based on
bulk-GaN. Again, here, that is strongly linked to the pricing of bulk-GaN that
will have to compete with 4" and future 6" SiC offer and GaN-on-Silicon
alternate technology.
Lack of bulk material pushes for ELO technique
Market is now essentially centered on free-standing material but the shortage
of this product has to be compensated by the use of home-made ELO-GaN on
sapphire substrates. We assume about 28% of LD was made on ELO-GaN in 2008.
This percentage will decrease a little but will stay significant by 2012.
Asia dominates the substrate business but EU and US exhibit credible challengers
The main free-standing producer remains Sumitomo, mostly supplying Nichia and
Sony for laser production. Others challengers such as Hitachi-cable (now
sampling 3" wafers) or Mitsubishi Chemical are becoming more and more present.
In Europe, LumiLOG, now part of Saint-Gobain group, is fine-tuning its product
line-up for the LED illumination business; Ammono and TopGaN are improving
their strong expertise in low dislocation density crystals.
US is mainly focusing on non or semi-polar material, with Kyma, Inlustra
Technologies or Oxford Instruments (TDI).
By 2015, bulk GaN for LED will dominate the substrate market in volume
2" substrates production volume could reach about 100,000 units by 2010,
leading to a relative $240M market for both free-standing and ELO. Beyond
2013, the growing demand for bulk GaN in LED lighting applications will
rapidly dominates the market in volume
This report presents the detailed major market metrics of the current and
projected bulk / free-standing GaN substrate business, describing the targeted
applications, the key players, the volumes and related market size of each
segment. It gives the possible total accessible market for GaN substrates,
highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of this technology over the current
established epiwafer or ELO technologies. It describes the recent progress in
crystalline quality as well as the new challenges offered by non-polar and
semi-polar GaN material
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