CHINA'S MAJOR MARKETS: FORECASTS 2003-2007

CHINA'S MAJOR MARKETS: FORECASTS 2003-2007

Table of Contents:

CHINA CONTACT I

CONTENTS II

Free Monthly Online Newsletters xiv

China Fast Facts xv

Regions of China xvi

Map A.1 CHINA: PROVINCES AND MUNICIPALITIES xvi

1 CHINA 2003-2007 1

• 1.1 China in 2003 1
• 1.2 Economic Growth 4
• 1.3 China's Business Environment in 2003/2004 5
• 1.4 The Impact of SARS 7
• 1.5 What to Expect in 2003/2004 9
• 1.6 Social Tensions 12
• 1.7 China & Globalism 14
• 1.8 The RMB:US$ Peg Debate 15
• 1.9 Cooling the Economy 18

2 RETAILING 20

• 2.1.1 Retailing: Forecast Trends 20
• 2.1.2 Retailing: Total Market Size 21
  • Table 2.1 FORECAST TOTAL CONSTANT VALUE RETAIL SALES IN CHINA, 2003-2007 23
• 2.1.3 Retailing: Food/Non-food & Urban/Rural Values 23
  • Table 2.2 FORECAST CONSTANT VALUE RETAIL MARKET BY FOOD/NON-FOOD AND URBAN/RURAL SPLITS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 25
• 2.1.4 Retailing: Food/Non-food & Urban/Rural Shares 25
  • Table 2.3 PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF FORECAST CONSTANT VALUE RETAIL MARKET BY FOOD/NON-FOOD AND URBAN/RURAL SPLITS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 26
• 2.1.5 Retailing: Growth Rates 26
  • Table 2.4 ANNUAL GROWTH RATES FOR FORECAST CONSTANT VALUE RETAIL MARKET BY FOOD/NON-FOOD AND URBAN/RURAL SPLITS, 2003-2007 27

3 CATERING & FAST FOOD 28

• 3.1 Catering & Fast Food: Forecast Trends 28
• 3.2 Catering & Fast Food: Forecast Market Size 29
  • Table 3.1 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR CATERING & FAST FOOD IN CHINA 2003-2007 29

4 COMPUTER EQUIPMENT & SOFTWARE 30

• 4.1 Computer Equipment 30
  • 4.1.1 Computer Equipment: Forecast Trends 30
  • 4.1.2 Computer Equipment: Forecast Market Size 30
  • Table 4.1 FORECAST TOTAL COMPUTER EQUIPMENT MARKET IN CHINA 2003-2007 31
• 4.2 Software 32
  • 4.2.1 Software: Forecast Trends 32
  • 4.2.2 Software: Forecast Market Size 32
  • Table 4.2 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR SOFTWARE IN CHINA 2003-2005 33

5 FINANCIAL SERVICES 34

• 5.1 Personal Banking 34
  • 5.1.1 Personal Banking: Forecast Trends 34
  • 5.1.2 Personal Banking: Forecast Market Size 34
  • Table 5.1 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR BANK DEPOSITS IN CHINA 2003-2007 35
• 5.2 Brokerages 36
  • 5.2.1 Brokerages: Forecast Trends 36
• 5.3 Credit & Debit Cards 37
  • 5.3.1 Credit & Debit Cards: Forecast Trends 37
  • 5.3.2 Credit & Debit Cards: Forecast Market Size 38
  • Table 5.2 FORECAST TOTAL CREDIT CARD MARKET BY TRANSACTION VALUE 2003-2007 38
• 5.4 Insurance 39
  • 5.4.1 Insurance: Forecast Trends 39
  • 5.4.2 Insurance: Forecast Market Size 40
  • Table 5.3 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR INSURANCE PREMIUMS IN CHINA 2003-2007 40
  • 5.4.3 Insurance: Forecast Sector Values 2003-2005 40
  • Table 5.4 FORECAST MARKET FOR INSURANCE IN CHINA BY SECTOR 2003-2005 41
• 5.5 Auto-financing 42
  • 5.5.1 Auto Financing: Forecast Trends 42
  • 5.5.2 Auto Financing: Forecast Market Size 43
  • Table 5.5 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR AUTO FINANCING IN CHINA 2003-2007 43

6 INTERNET 44

• 6.1 Forecast Trends 44
• 6.2 Forecast Market by Subscribers 45
  • Table 6.1 FORECAST TOTAL NUMBER OF INTERNET SUBSCRIBERS IN CHINA 2003-2005 45
• 6.3 Forecast Total Market by Users 2003-2005 45
  • Table 6.2 FORECAST TOTAL NUMBER OF INTERNET USERS IN CHINA 2003-2005 46
• 6.4 Forecast Total Market by Websites 2003-2005 46
  • Table 6.3 FORECAST TOTAL NUMBER OF WEBSITES IN CHINA 2003-2005 46

7 TELECOMMUNICATIONS 47

• 7.1 Telecommunications 47
  • 7.1.1 Telecommunications: Forecast Trends 47
  • 7.1.2 Telecommunications: Forecast Market Size 2002-2005 48
  • Table 7.1 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICES IN CHINA 2003-2005 48
• 7.2 Mobile Telecommunications 49
  • 7.2.1 Mobile Telecoms: Forecast Trends 49
  • 7.2.2 Mobile Telecoms: Forecast Trends for WAP in China 49
  • 7.2.3 Mobile Telecoms: Forecast Market for Mobile Services 2003-2005 50
  • Table 7.2 FORECAST SIZE OF THE MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS SERVICE IN CHINA BY SUBSECTOR 2003-2005 50

8 SELECTED NON-FOOD PRODUCTS 51

• 8.1 Camera Film 51
  • 8.1.1 Camera Film: Total Market Size & Expected Trends 51
  • Table 8.1 TOTAL FORECAST MARKET FOR CAMERA FILM IN CHINA 2003-2007 51
• 8.2 Consumer Electronic Goods 52
  • 8.2.1 Consumer Electronic Goods: Forecast Trends 52
  • 8.2.2 Consumer Electronic Goods: Total Market Size 52
  • Table 8.2 FORECAST VALUE MARKET FOR CONSUMER ELECTRONIC GOODS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 52
  • Table 8.3 FORECAST VOLUME MARKET FOR CONSUMER ELECTRONIC GOODS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 53
  • 8.2.3 Consumer Electronic Goods: Sector Values 53
  • Table 8.4 FORECAST VOLUME & VALUE SALES OF CONSUMER ELECTRONIC GOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 54
  • Table 8.5 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF CONSUMER ELECTRONIC GOODS VOLUME & VALUE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 54
  • Table 8.6 FORECAST % ANNUAL GROWTH OF CONSUMER ELECTRONIC GOODS SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 54
• 8.3 Cosmetics & Toiletries 55
  • 8.3.1 Cosmetics & Toiletries: Total Market Size 55
  • Table 8.7 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL MARKET FOR COSMETICS & TOILETRIES PRODUCTS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 56
  • 8.3.2 Cosmetics & Toiletries: Sector Values 56
  • Table 8.8 FORECAST MARKET FOR COSMETICS & TOILETRIES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 57
  • 8.3.3 Cosmetics & Toiletries: Sector Shares 57
  • Table 8.9 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF THE VALUE MARKET FOR COSMETICS & TOILETRIES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 58
  • 8.3.4 Cosmetics & Toiletries: Forecast Growth Rates 58
  • Table 8.10 FORECAST GROWTH ANNUAL GROWTH RATES OF THE MARKET FOR COSMETICS & TOILETRIES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 59
• 8.4 Home Improvements & Furnishings 60
  • 8.4.1 Home Improvements & Furnishings: Forecast Trends 60
  • 8.4.2 Home Improvements & Furnishings: Forecast Total Market 60
  • Table 8.11 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR HOME IMPROVEMENTS & FURNISHINGS IN CHINA 2002-2007 61
• 8.5 Plants & Flowers 62
  • 8.5.1 Plants & Flowers: Forecast Trends 62
  • 8.5.2 Plants & Flowers: Total Market Size for Fresh Flowers 62
  • Table 8.12 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FRESH FLOWERS IN CHINA 2003-2007 63
• 8.6 White Goods 64
  • 8.6.1 White Goods: Forecast Trends 64
  • 8.6.2 White Goods: Total Market Size 64
  • Table 8.13 FORECAST VALUE MARKET FOR WHITE GOODS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 65
  • 8.6.3 White Goods: Sector Values 65
  • Table 8.14 FORECAST VOLUME & VALUE SALES OF WHITE GOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 66
  • Table 8.15 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF WHITE GOODS VOLUME & VALUE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 67
• 8.7 Writing Instruments 68
  • 8.7.1 Writing Instruments: Forecast Trends 68
  • 8.7.2 Writing Instruments: Forecast Market Size 2002-2005 69
  • Table 8.16 FORECAST TOTAL WRITING INSTRUMENTS MARKET IN CHINA 2002-2005 69

9 PULP & PAPER 70

• 9.1 Pulp & Paper: Forecast Trends 70
• 9.2 Pulp & Paper: Forecast Production & Consumption 2003-2005 71
  • Table 9.1 FORECAST MARKET FOR PAPER & PULP IN CHINA 2003-2005 71

10 TRAVEL & TOURISM 72

• 10.1 Tourism 72
  • 10.1.1 Tourism: Forecast Trends 72
  • 10.1.2 Tourism: Forecast Tourist Arrivals 2003-2005 72
  • Table 10.1 FORECAST TOTAL TOURIST ARRIVALS TO CHINA 2002-2005 73
  • 10.1.3 Tourism: Forecast Tourist Receipts 2003-2005 73
  • Table 10.2 FORECAST TOTAL TOURISM RECEIPTS IN CHINA 2002-2005 73
• 10.2 Hotels 74
  • 10.2.1 Hotels: Forecast Trends 74
  • 10.2.2 Hotels: Forecast Market Size 2003-2005 75
  • Table 10.3 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR HOTELS IN CHINA 2003-2005 75

11. CAR RENTAL 77

• 11.1 Car Rental: Forecast Trends 77
• 11.2 Car Rental: Forecast Market Size 2003-2005 77
  • Table 11.1 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET CAR RENTAL IN CHINA 2003-2005 78

12 AUTOMOTIVES 79

• 12.1 Automobiles 79
  • 12.1.1 Automotive: Tenth Five-year Plan for the Automotive Industry 79
  • Market Demand Prediction 79
  • Cars 79
  • Trucks 79
  • Buses 79
  • Motorcycles 79
  • Table 12.1 CHINESE GOVERNMENT PREDICTION ON VEHICLE POPULATION AND DEMAND, 2005 80
  • 12.1.2 Automotive: Tenth Five-year Plan for the Automotive Industry - Development Target 80
  • Overall Target 80
  • Target for Restructuring 80
  • Target for Product Mix Adjustment 81
  • Automotive: Guidelines for Development 81
  • 12.1.3 Automotive: Tenth Five-year Plan for the Automotive Industry - Policies & Measures 82
  • Standardising and Fostering the Automotive Market 82
  • Improving Legislative Management 82
  • Guiding and Promoting the Formation of Large Enterprise Groups 82
  • Enhancing Autonomous Development Capability 83
  • Promoting the Development of Parts and Components Industry 83
  • 12.1.4 Automotive: Electric Vehicles 84
  • 12.1.5 Automotive: Dual-Fuel Cars 85
  • 12.1.6 Automotive: LLH 86
  • 12.1.7 Automotive: Total Sales Value 87
  • Table 12.2 FORECAST TOTAL VOLUME & VALUE SALES, 2003-2007 88
  • 12.1.8 Automotive: Forecast Demand Factors 88
  • Table 12.3 PREDICTION OF CAR MARKET DEMAND IN CHINA, 2005/2010/2015 89
  • Table 12.4 PREDICTION OF CAR DEMAND STRUCTURE IN CHINA, 2005/2010/2015 89
  • 12.1.9 Automotive: Sales by Sector 89
  • Table 12.5 FORECAST TOTAL VEHICLE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2008 90
  • 2.7.7 Automotive: Sales Breakdown by Sector 91
  • Table 12.6 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF TOTAL VEHICLE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 1994-2002 91
  • 12.1.10 Automotive: Sales Growth by Sector 91
  • Table 12.7 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF TOTAL VEHICLE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 1994-2002 91
• 12.2 Auto Parts 92
  • 12.2.1 Autoparts: Areas of Opportunity 92
  • 12.2.2 Autoparts: Total Market Forecast 93
  • Table 12.8 TOTAL FORECAST AUTO PARTS AND AFTERMARKET VALUE IN CHINA, 2003-2007 93
  • 12.2.3 Autoparts: Market Forecast by Sector 93
  • Table 12.9 FORECAST AUTO PARTS AND AFTERMARKET VALUE BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 94
  • 12.2.4 Outlook: Market Breakdown Forecast by Sector 94
  • Table 12.10 FORECAST AUTO PARTS AND AFTERMARKET % BREAKDOWN BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 95
  • 12.2.5 Autoparts: Market Growth Forecast by Sector 95
  • Table 12.11 FORECAST AUTO PARTS AND AFTERMARKET ANNUAL GROWTH BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 96

13 ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 97

• 13.1 Beer 97
  • 13.1.1 Beer: Forecast Trends 97
  • 13.1.2 Beer: Key Factors 97
  • 13.1.3 Beer: Forecast Market Size 98
  • Table 13.1 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL MARKET FOR BEER AT CONSTANT 2000 PRICES IN CHINA, 2003-2007 98
  • 13.1.4 Beer: Forecast Market Trends 98
  • Table 13.2 FORECAST BEER CONSUMPTION & EXPENDITURE BY DISTRIBUTION METHOD IN CHINA, 2003-2007 99
  • 13.1.5 Beer: Forecast Sector Values 99
  • Table 13.3 FORECAST RETAIL MARKET VALUE FOR BEER BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 100
  • 13.1.6 Beer: Forecast Sector Value Shares 100
  • Table 13.4 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF THE RETAIL MARKET VALUE FOR BEER BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 100
  • 13.1.7 Beer: Forecast Sector Value Growth 100
  • Table 13.5 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF THE RETAIL MARKET VALUE FOR BEER BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 101
  • 13.1.8 Beer: Forecast Sector Volumes 101
  • Table 13.6 FORECAST RETAIL MARKET VOLUME FOR BEER BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 101
  • 13.1.9 Beer: Forecast Sector Volume Shares 101
  • Table 13.7 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF THE RETAIL MARKET VOLUME FOR BEER BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 102
• 13.2 Wine 103
  • 13.2.1 Wine: Total Market Size 103
  • Table 13.8 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL MARKET FOR WINE IN CHINA, 2003-2007 103
  • 13.2.2 Wine: Sector Values 104
  • Table 13.9 FORECAST VOLUME & VALUE RETAIL SALES OF WINE BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 104
  • 13.2.3 Wine: Sector Breakdown 105
  • Table 13.10 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF VOLUME & VALUE RETAIL SALES OF WINE BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 105
  • 13.2.4 Wine: Sector Growth 106
  • Table 13.11 FORECAST ANNUAL % GROWTH OF VOLUME & VALUE RETAIL SALES OF WINE BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 106
• 13.3 Spirits 107
  • 13.3.1 Spirits: Total Market Size 107
  • Table 13.12 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL MARKET FOR SPIRITS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 107
  • 13.3.2 Spirits: Sector Values 108
  • Table 13.13 FORECAST VOLUME & VALUE RETAIL SALES OF SPIRITS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 108
  • 13.3.3 Spirits: Sector Breakdown 109
  • Table 13.14 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF VOLUME & VALUE RETAIL SALES OF SPIRITS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 109
  • 13.3.4 Spirits: Sector Growth 110
  • Table 13.15 FORECAST ANNUAL % GROWTH OF VALUE RETAIL SALES OF SPIRITS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 110

14 NON-ALCOHOLIC DRINKS 111

• 14.1 Hot Drinks 111
  • 14.1.1 Hot Drinks: Forecast Trends 111
  • 14.1.2 Hot Drinks: Total Market Size 111
  • Table 14.1 FORECAST TOTAL VALUE RETAIL MARKET FOR HOT DRINKS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 112
  • Table 14.2 FORECAST TOTAL VOLUME RETAIL MARKET FOR HOT DRINKS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 112
  • 14.1.3 Hot Drinks: Sector Values 112
  • Table 14.3 FORECAST RETAIL SALES OF HOT DRINKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 113
  • 14.1.4 Hot Drinks: Sector Breakdown 113
  • Table 14.4 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF HOT DRINKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 114
  • 14.1.5 Hot Drinks: Sector Growth 115
  • Table 14.5 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF HOT DRINKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 115
• 14.2 Soft Drinks 116
  • 14.2.1 Soft Drinks: Forecast Trends 116
  • 14.2.2 Soft Drinks: Total Market Size 116
  • Table 14.6 FORECAST TOTAL VALUE MARKET FOR SOFT DRINKS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 117
  • Table 14.7 FORECAST TOTAL VOLUME MARKET FOR SOFT DRINKS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 117
  • 14.2.3 Soft Drinks: Sector Values 117
  • Table 14.8 FORECAST VALUE & VOLUME SALES OF SOFT DRINKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 118
  • 14.2.4 Soft Drinks: Sector Breakdown 118
  • Table 14.9 FORECAST PERCENTAGE VALUE & VOLUME BREAKDOWN OF SOFT DRINKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 119
  • 14.2.5 Soft Drinks: Sector Growth 119
  • Table 14.10 FORECAST ANNUAL VALUE & VOLUME GROWTH OF SOFT DRINKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 120

15 TOBACCO 121

• 15.1 Tobacco: Forecast Trends 121
• 15.2 Tobacco: Key Factors 121
• 15.3 Tobacco: Total Market Size 123
  • Table 15.1 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR TOBACCO PRODUCTS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 123
• 15.4 Tobacco: Sector Values 124
  • Table 15.2 FORECAST VALUE SALES OF TOBACCO PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 124
  • Table 15.3 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF TOBACCO PRODUCT VALUE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 124
  • Table 15.4 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF TOBACCO PRODUCT VALUE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA 2003-2007 124

16 SELECTED FOOD PRODUCTS 125

• 16.1 Baby Foods 125
  • 16.1.1 Baby Foods: Forecast Trends 125
  • 16.1.2 Baby Foods: Total Market Size in Value Terms 125
  • Table 16.1 FORECAST TOTAL BABY FOODS MARKET IN CHINA BY VALUE, 2003-2007 126
  • 16.1.3 Baby Foods: Total Market Size in Volume Terms 126
  • Table 16.2 FORECAST TOTAL BABY FOODS MARKET IN CHINA BY VOLUME, 2003-2007 126
  • 16.1.4 Baby Foods: Sector Values 126
  • Table 16.3 FORECAST SALES OF BABY FOODS IN CHINA BY SECTOR, 2003-2007 127
  • 16.1.5 Baby Foods: Sector Breakdown 127
  • Table 16.4 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF BABY FOODS IN CHINA BY SECTOR, 2003-2007 127
  • 16.1.6 Baby Foods: Sector Growth 128
  • Table 16.5 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF BABY FOODS BY SECTOR, 2002-2003 128
• 16.2 Baked Foods 129
  • 16.2.1 Baked Foods: Forecast Trends 129
  • 16.2.2 Baked Foods: Total Market Size 129
  • Table 16.6 FORECAST TOTAL BAKED FOODS MARKET VALUE, 2003-2007 130
  • Table 16.7 FORECAST TOTAL BAKED FOODS MARKET VALUE, 2003-2007 130
  • 16.2.3 Baked Foods: Sector Values 130
  • Table 16.8 FORECAST SALES OF BAKED FOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 131
  • 16.2.4 Baked Foods: Sector Breakdown 131
  • Table 16.9 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF BAKED FOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 132
  • 16.2.5 Baked Foods: Sector Growth 132
  • Table 16.10 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF BAKED FOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 133
• 16.3 Canned Foods 134
  • 16.3.1 Canned Foods: Forecast Trends 134
  • 16.3.2 Canned Foods: Total Market Size In Value Terms 135
  • Table 16.11 FORECAST TOTAL CANNED FOODS MARKET VALUE IN CHINA, 2003-2007 135
  • 16.3.3 Canned Foods: Total Market Size In Volume Terms 135
  • Table 16.12 FORECAST TOTAL CANNED FOODS MARKET VOLUME IN CHINA, 2003-2007 135
  • 16.3.4 Canned Foods: Sector Values 135
  • Table 16.13 FORECAST SALES OF CANNED FOOD BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 136
  • 16.3.5 Canned Foods: Sector Breakdown 136
  • Table 16.14 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF CANNED FOOD BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 137
  • 16.3.6 Canned Foods: Sector Growth 137
  • Table 16.15 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF CANNED FOOD BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 138
• 16.4 Cereal Products & Instant Noodles 139
  • 16.4.1 Cereal Products: Forecast Trends 139
  • 16.4.2 Cereal Products: Total Market Size 139
  • Table 16.16 FORECAST TOTAL VALUE MARKET FOR INSTANT NOODLES & CEREAL PRODUCTS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 139
  • Table 16.17 FORECAST TOTAL VOLUME MARKET FOR INSTANT NOODLES & CEREAL PRODUCTS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 140
  • 16.4.3 Cereal Products: Sector Values 140
  • Table 16.18 FORECAST VALUE & VOLUME SALES OF INSTANT NOODLES & CEREAL PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 140
  • 16.4.4 Cereal Products: Sector Breakdown 141
  • Table 16.19 FORECAST PERCENTAGE VALUE & VOLUME BREAKDOWN OF INSTANT NOODLES & CEREAL PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 141
  • 16.4.5 Cereal Products: Sector Growth 141
  • Table 16.20 FORECAST ANNUAL VALUE & VOLUME GROWTH OF INSTANT NOODLES & CEREAL PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 142
• 16.5 Chilled Foods 143
  • 16.5.1 Chilled Foods: Forecast Trends 143
  • 16.5.2 Chilled Foods: Total Market Size 143
  • Table 16.21 FORECAST TOTAL VALUE MARKET FOR CHILLED FOODS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 144
  • Table 16.22 FORECAST TOTAL VOLUME MARKET FOR CHILLED FOODS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 144
  • 16.5.3 Chilled Foods: Sector Values 144
  • Table 16.23 FORECAST VALUE & VOLUME SALES OF CHILLED FOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 145
  • 16.5.4 Chilled Foods: Sector Breakdown 145
  • Table 16.24 FORECAST PERCENTAGE VALUE & VOLUME BREAKDOWN OF CHILLED FOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 145
  • 16.5.5 Chilled Foods: Sector Growth 146
  • Table 16.25 FORECAST ANNUAL VALUE & VOLUME GROWTH OF CHILLED FOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 146
• 16.6 Confectionery 147
  • 16.6.1 Confectionery: Forecast Trends 147
  • 16.6.2 Confectionery: Total Market Size 147
  • Table 16.26 FORECAST TOTAL VALUE MARKET FOR CONFECTIONERY IN CHINA, 2003-2007 147
  • Table 16.27 FORECAST TOTAL VOLUME MARKET FOR CONFECTIONERY IN CHINA, 2003-2007 148
  • 16.6.3 Confectionery: Sector Values 148
  • Table 16.28 FORECAST VALUE & VOLUME SALES OF CONFECTIONERY BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 148
  • 16.6.4 Confectionery: Sector Breakdown 148
  • Table 16.29 FORECAST PERCENTAGE VALUE & VOLUME BREAKDOWN OF CONFECTIONERY BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 149
  • 16.6.5 Confectionery: Sector Growth 149
  • Table 16.30 FORECAST ANNUAL VALUE & VOLUME GROWTH OF CONFECTIONERY BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 149
• 16.7 Dairy Foods 150
  • 16.7.1 Dairy Foods: Forecast Trends 150
  • 16.7.2 Dairy Foods: Total Market Size 150
  • Table 16.31 FORECAST TOTAL VALUE MARKET FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 151
  • Table 16.32 FORECAST TOTAL VOLUME MARKET FOR DAIRY PRODUCTS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 151
  • 16.7.3 Dairy Foods: Sector Values 152
  • Table 16.33 FORECAST VALUE & VOLUME SALES OF DAIRY PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 152
  • 16.7.4 Dairy Foods: Sector Breakdown 153
  • Table 16.34 FORECAST PERCENTAGE VALUE & VOLUME BREAKDOWN OF DAIRY PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 154
  • 16.7.5 Dairy Foods: Sector Growth 155
  • Table 16.35 FORECAST ANNUAL VALUE & VOLUME GROWTH OF DAIRY PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 155
• 16.8 Dried Foods 156
  • 16.8.1 Dried Foods: Forecast Trends 156
  • 16.8.2 Dried Foods: Forecast Market Size 156
  • Table 16..36 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR DRIED FOODS IN CHINA 2003-2007 157
• 16.9 Frozen Foods 158
  • 16.9.1 Frozen Foods: Forecast Trends 158
  • 16.9.2 Frozen Foods: Total Market Size 158
  • Table 16.37 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL MARKET FOR FROZEN FOODS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 159
  • 16.9.3 Frozen Foods: Sector Values 159
  • Table 16.38 FORECAST RETAIL SALES OF FROZEN FOODS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 159
  • 16.9.4 Frozen Foods: Sector Breakdown 159
  • Table 16.39 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF FROZEN FOODS RETAIL SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 160
  • 16.9.5 Frozen Foods: Sector Growth 160
  • Table 16.40 FORECAST ANNUAL % GROWTH OF FROZEN FOODS RETAIL SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 161
• 16.10 Fruit & Vegetables 162
  • 16.10.1 Fruit & Vegetables: Forecast Trends 162
  • 16.10.2 Fruit & Vegetables: Total Market Size 162
  • Table 16.41 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR FRUIT & VEGETABLES IN CHINA, 2003-2007 162
  • 16.10.3 Fruit & Vegetables: Sector Values 163
  • Table 16.42 FORECAST VALUE SALES OF FRUIT & VEGETABLES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 163
  • Table 16.43 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT & VEGETABLES VALUE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 164
  • Table 16.44 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF FRUIT & VEGETABLES SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 165
  • 16.10.4 Outlook: Sector Volumes 166
  • Table 16.45 FORECAST VOLUME SALES OF FRUIT & VEGETABLES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 166
  • Table 16.46 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT & VEGETABLES VOLUME SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 167
• 16.11 Meat 168
  • 16.11.1 Meat: Forecast Trends 168
  • 16.11.2 Meat: Total Market Size 168
  • Table 16.47 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR MEAT & MEAT PRODUCTS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 168
  • 16.11.3 Meat: Sector Values 169
  • Table 16.48 FORECAST VALUE SALES OF MEAT & MEAT PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 169
  • Table 16.49 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF MEAT & MEAT PRODUCT VALUE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 170
  • Table 16.50 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF MEAT & MEAT PRODUCT VALUE SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 170
  • 16.11.4 Meat: Sector Volumes 171
  • Table 16.51 FORECAST VOLUME SALES OF MEAT & MEAT PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 171
  • Table 16.52 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF MEAT & MEAT PRODUCT VOLUME SALES BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 172
• 16.12 Salt 173
  • 16.12.1 Salt: Total Market Value 173
  • Table 16.53 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL VALUE MARKET FOR SALT IN CHINA, 2003-2007 173
  • 16.12.2 Salt: Total Market Volume 173
  • Table 16.54 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL VOLUME MARKET FOR SALT IN CHINA, 2003-2007 173
• 16.13 Savoury Snacks 174
  • 16.13.1 Savoury Snacks: Forecast Trends 174
  • 16.13.2 Savoury Snacks: Total Market Size 174
  • Table 16.55 FORECAST TOTAL VALUE RETAIL MARKET FOR SAVOURY SNACKS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 175
  • Table 16.56 FORECAST TOTAL VOLUME RETAIL MARKET FOR SAVOURY SNACKS IN CHINA, 2003-2007 175
  • 16.3.3 Savoury Snacks: Sector Values 175
  • Table 16.57 FORECAST RETAIL SALES OF SAVOURY SNACKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 176
  • 16.13.4 Savoury Snacks: Sector Breakdown 176
  • Table 16.58 FORECAST % BREAKDOWN OF SAVOURY SNACKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 177
  • 16.13.5 Savoury Snacks: Sector Growth 177
  • Table 16.59 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF SAVOURY SNACKS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 178
• 16.14 Soya Products 179
  • 16.14.1 Soya Products: Total Market Size 179
  • Table 16.60 FORECAST TOTAL SOYA PRODUCTS MARKET VALUE IN CHINA, 2003-2007 179
  • Table 16.61 FORECAST TOTAL SOYA PRODUCTS MARKET VOLUME IN CHINA, 2003-2007 179
  • 16.14.2 Soya Products: Sector Values 180
  • Table 16.62 FORECAST SALES OF SOYA PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 180
  • 16.14.3 Soya Products: Sector Breakdown 180
  • Table 16.63 FORECAST PERCENTAGE BREAKDOWN OF SOYA PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 181
  • 16.14.4 Soya Products: Sector Growth 181
  • Table 16.64 FORECAST ANNUAL GROWTH OF SOYA PRODUCTS BY SECTOR IN CHINA, 2002-2003 181
• 16.15 Sugar 182
  • 16.15.1 Sugar: Total Market Size 182
  • Table 16.65 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL VALUE MARKET FOR SUGAR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 182
  • 16.15.2 Sugar: Total Market Volume 182
  • Table 16.66 FORECAST TOTAL RETAIL VOLUME MARKET FOR SUGAR IN CHINA, 2003-2007 183

17 OTHER SELECTED MARKETS 184

• 17.1 Direct Marketing 184
• 17.2 Lotteries & Organised Gambling 185
  • 17.2.1 Outlook: Trends 185
  • 17.2.2 Outlook: Forecast Lottery Ticket Sales 186
  • Table 17.1 THE FORECAST MARKET FOR LOTTERY TICKET SALES IN CHINA, 2003-2007 186
• 17.3 OTC Pharmaceuticals 187
  • 17.3.1 OTC Pharmaceuticals: Forecast Trends 187
  • 17.3.2 OTC Pharmaceuticals: Forecast Total Market Size 187
  • Table 17.2 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR OTC PHARMACEUTICALS IN CHINA 2003-2007 188
• 17.4 Petrol Stations 189
  • 17.4.1 Petrol Stations: Forecast Market Size 189
  • Table 17.3 FORECAST TOTAL MARKET FOR PETROL STATION RETAIL SALES IN CHINA, 2002-2006 189

18. CHINA'S AGRICULTURAL POLICY OUTLOOK 190

• 18.1 Agricultural Outlook 190
• 18.2 Macroeconomy 191
• 18.3 Agricultural Resources and Technology 191

19. THE CHALLENGE OF BRANDING IN CHINA 193

• 19.1 The Challenge 193
• 19.2 The Challenge for Chinese Brands 194
• 19.3 The Future Challenges for Brands in China 195
• 19.4 Foreign Brands Have Also Learnt Other Lessons Over The Years 196

20 LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD - CHINA 2005-2010 198

• APPENDIX - EXCHANGE RATES 203
• A.1 Exchange Rates: China 203
• Table A1 AVERAGE ANNUAL EXCHANGE RATES, 1997-2002 203
• A.2 Exchange Rates: Hong Kong 204
• Table A2 AVERAGE ANNUAL EXCHANGE RATES, 1997-2002 204