Fresh Fruit in China: A Market Analysis 2005

CHINA CONTACT I

CONTENTS II

INTRODUCTION

Report Coverage

Executive Summary

Glossary

Relevant Access Asia Reports

1 China s Fruit & Vegetables Retail Market

1.1 Overview

1.2 China s Total Food Market

1.2.1 Total Food Market: Food and Non-food Sales

Table 1.1 TOTAL CURRENT VALUE RETAIL SALES BY FOOD AND NON-FOOD, 1998-2004

1.2.2 Total Food Market: Food/Non-food Sales Split

Table 1.2 % BREAKDOWN OF SALES BY FOOD AND NON-FOOD, 1998-2004

1.2.3 Total Food Market: Urban and Rural Split

Table 1.3 TOTAL CURRENT VALUE RETAIL SALES BY FOOD AND NON-FOOD, 1998-2004

1.2.4 Total Food Market: Total Value Trends

Table 1.4 CURRENT VALUE OF TOTAL FOOD SALES BY MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY, 1998-2004

1.2.5 Total Food Market: Urban Value Trends

Table 1.5 URBAN FOOD SALES CURRENT VALUE BY MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY, 1998-2004

1.2.6 Total Food Market: Rural Value Trends

Table 1.6 VALUE OF RURAL FOOD SALES CURRENT VALUE BY MAJOR PRODUCT CATEGORY, 1998-2004

1.3 China s Fruit Retail Market

1.3.1 Total Retail Market for Fruit: Volume and Value

Table 1.7 VALUE & VOLUME RETAIL MARKET FOR FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.3.2 Retail Sector Breakdown: Sector Shares

Table 1.8 % VALUE & VOLUME RETAIL MARKET BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.3.3 Retail Sector Breakdown: Growth Rates

Table 1.9 % ANNUAL VALUE & VOLUME RETAIL MARKET GROWTH FOR FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.4 Non-retail Sector Breakdown

1.4.1 Non-retail Sector Breakdown: Sector Sizes

Table 1.10 VALUE & VOLUME NON-RETAIL MARKET FOR FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.4.2 Non-retail Sector Breakdown: Sector Shares

Table 1.11 % VALUE & VOLUME NON-RETAIL MARKET BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.4.3 Non-retail Sector Breakdown: Growth Rates

Table 1.12 % ANNUAL VALUE & VOLUME NON-RETAIL MARKET GROWTH FOR FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.5 Total Apparent Consumption Sector Breakdown

1.5.1 Total Apparent Consumption Sector Breakdown: Sector Sizes

Table 1.13 VALUE & VOLUME APPARENT EXPENDITURE ON & CONSUMPTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.5.2 Total Apparent Consumption Sector Breakdown: Sector Shares

Table 1.14 % VALUE & VOLUME BREAKDOWN OF APPARENT EXPENDITURE ON & CONSUMPTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.5.3 Total Apparent Consumption Sector Breakdown: Growth Rates

Table 1.15 % ANNUAL VALUE & VOLUME GROWTH OF APPARENT EXPENDITURE ON & CONSUMPTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.6 Fruit Subsector Breakdown

1.6.1 Fruit Retail Subsector Breakdown: Subsector Sizes

Table 1.16 VALUE RETAIL MARKET FOR FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 1.17 VOLUME RETAIL MARKET FOR FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.6.2 Fruit Retail Subsector Breakdown: Subsector Shares

Table 1.18 % VALUE RETAIL BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 1.19 % VOLUME RETAIL BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.6.3 Fruit Retail Subsector Breakdown: Subsector Growth Rates

Table 1.20 % ANNUAL RETAIL VALUE GROWTH FOR FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 1.21 % ANNUAL RETAIL VOLUME GROWTH FOR FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

1.7 Prices

1.7.1 Prices: Retail Price Indices

Table 1.22 RETAIL PRICE INDICES BY BROAD SECTOR, 1998-2004

1.7.2 Prices: Average Unit Values

Table 1.23 AVERAGE UNIT RETAIL PRICES ON FRUIT & VEGETABLES BY SECTOR, 1998-2004

1.7.3 Prices: Average Unit Value Growth

Table 1.24 GROWTH OF AVERAGE UNIT RETAIL PRICES ON FRUIT, 1998-2004

1.8 Outlook

1.8.1 Outlook: Forecast Trends

1.8.2 Outlook: Retail Sector Values

Table 1.25 FORECAST VALUE RETAIL SALES OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 2005-2009

Table 1.26 FORECAST VOLUME RETAIL SALES OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 2005-2009

1.8.3 Outlook: Retail Sector Breakdown

Table 1.27 FORECAST % VALUE RETAIL BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 2005-2009

Table 1.28 FORECAST % VOLUME RETAIL BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 2005-2009

1.8.4 Outlook: Retail Sector Growth

Table 1.29 FORECAST ANNUAL RETAIL GROWTH OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 2005-2009

1.9 China s Agricultural Policy

1.9.1 Agricultural Policy: Background

1.9.2 Agricultural Policy: Problems in Commercialisation

1.9.3 Agricultural Policy: Institutional and Production Policies

Household Production Responsibility System

Development of Rural Industry

Governor s Grain-Bag Responsibility System

Mayors  Responsibility System

1.9.4 Agricultural Policy: Domestic and Market Price Policy

Procurement Price Policies

Procurement Contract System

Reduction in Government Procurement Quotas

Elimination of Fixed Procurement Prices

Elimination of Urban Grain-rationing System

Price Support Programme

Grain Distribution Reform

1.9.5 Agricultural Policy: Agricultural Trade Policy Instruments

State Trading

Tariffs and value-added tax

Import and Export Licensing

Foreign Grain Trade Management

1.9.6 Agricultural Policy: Input Policy

Chemical Fertilisers

Water

1.9.7 Agricultural Policy: Outlook

Macro-economy

Trends in Food Demand

Agricultural Resources and Technology

World Trade Organisation (WTO)

1.10 Current Issues

1.10.1 Current Issues: Food Safety

1.10.2 Current Issues: Organic Production

1.10.3 Current Issues: Genetically Modified (GM) Food

2 MARKETING & DISTRIBUTION

2.1 Marketing & Advertising

2.2 Consumers

2.2.1 Consumer Profile: Broad Consumer Trends

2.2.2 Consumer Profile: Development of the Fruit & Vegetable Market

Table 2.1 ATTRIBUTES INFLUENCING FOOD PURCHASE IN SHANGHAI, 2000

2.3 Wholesale Distribution

2.3.1 Wholesaling: Overview

2.3.2 Wholesaling: Fruit Wholesaling

2.3.3 Wholesale Distribution: Leading Food Wholesalers

Table 2.2 LEADING WHOLESALERS OF FOODS, 2002

2.4 Retail Distribution

2.4.1 Retail Distribution: Free (Wet) Markets

Initial Development

Four-tier Distribution System

Wholesale Markets

Types of Free Market

Market Fees and Turnover Taxes

Table 2.3 TYPICAL BREAKDOWN OF FREE MARKET RETAIL SALES BY PRODUCT TYPE IN CHINA, 2001

2.4.2 Retail Distribution: Fruit Retail Sales by Outlet

Table 2.4 % BREAKDOWN OF FRUIT VALUE SALES BY OUTLET TYPE IN CHINA, 1998-2004

3 SOURCES OF SUPPLY

3.1 Total Fruit & Vegetable Production

3.1.1 Total Fruit & Vegetable Production: Total Industry Size

Table 3.1 TOTAL VOLUME PRODUTION OF FRUIT & VEGETABLES IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.2 TOTAL VALUE OF PRODUTION OF FRUIT & VEGETABLES IN CHINA AT CURRENT PRODUCER PRICES, 1998-2004

3.1.2 Total Fruit Production: Total Sewn Area

Table 3.3 AREA OF SEWN CROPS BY FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.4 % BREAKDOWN OF AREA OF SEWN CROPS BY FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.5 % ANNUAL GROWN IN AREA OF SEWN CROPS BY FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

3.2 Key Fruit & Vegetable Processors

3.2.1 Key Fruit & Vegetable Processors: Key Statistics

Table 3.6 SUMMARY STATISTICS OF CHINA S LEADING FRUIT & VEGETABLE PROCESSORS, 2003

3.2.2 Key Fruit & Vegetable Processors: Industry Revenue Shares

Table 3.7 CHINA S LEADING FRUIT & VEGETABLE PROCESSORS  % SHARE OF INDUSTRY REVENUES, 2003

3.2.3 Key Fruit & Vegetable Processors: Industry Profit Shares

Table 3.8 CHINA S LEADING FRUIT & VEGETABLE PROCESSORS  % SHARE OF INDUSTRY PROFITS, 2003

3.2.4 Key Fruit & Vegetable Processors: Profitability

Table 3.9 CHINA S LEADING FRUIT & VEGETABLE PROCESSORS  PROFITABILITY, 2003

3.2.5 Key Fruit & Vegetable Processors: Revenue Per Employee

Table 3.10 CHINA S LEADING FRUIT & VEGETABLE PROCESSORS  AVERAGE REVENUES PER EMPLOYEE, 2003

3.3 Production Sector Breakdown

3.3.1 Production Sector Breakdown: Sectors

Table 3.11 VALUE PRODUCTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.12 VOLUME PRODUCTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.13 % BREAKDOWN OF VALUE PRODUCTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.14 % BREAKDOWN OF VOLUME PRODUCTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.15 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VALUE PRODUCTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.16 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VOLUME PRODUCTION OF FRUIT IN CHINA, 1998-2004

3.3.2 Production Sector Breakdown: Subsectors

Table 3.17 VALUE PRODUCTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.18 VOLUME PRODUCTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.19 % BREAKDOWN OF VALUE PRODUCTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.20 % BREAKDOWN OF VOLUME PRODUCTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.21 %ANNUAL GROWTH OF VALUE PRODUCTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.22 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VOLUME PRODUCTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

3.3.3 Production Sector Breakdown: Average Producer Prices

Table 3.23 AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICES FOR FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.24 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF AVERAGE PRODUCER PRICES FOR FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

3.3.4 Production Sector Breakdown: Apparent Domestic Consumption & Expenditure

Table 3.25 VALUE OF APPARENT DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE ON FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.26 VOLUME OF APPARENT DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.27 % BREAKDOWN OF VALUE OF APPARENT DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE ON FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.28 % BREAKDOWN OF VOLUME OF APPARENT DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.29 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VALUE OF APPARENT DOMESTIC EXPENDITURE OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.30 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VOLUME OF APPARENT DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

3.4 International Trade

3.4.1 International Trade: Agricultural and Trade Policy

3.4.2 International Trade: Tariff Reductions

3.4.3 International Trade: "Fake" Produce

3.5 Imports

3.5.1 Imports: Fruit

Table 3.31 VALUE OF IMPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.32 VOLUME OF IMPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.33 % BREAKDOWN OF VALUE OF IMPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.34 % BREAKDOWN OF VOLUME OF IMPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.35 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VALUE OF IMPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.36 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VOLUME OF IMPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

3.6 Exports

3.6.1 Exports: Fruit

Table 3.37 VALUE OF EXPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.38 VOLUME OF EXPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.39 % BREAKDOWN OF VALUE OF EXPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.40 % BREAKDOWN OF VOLUME OF EXPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.41 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VALUE OF EXPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.42 % ANNUAL GROWTH OF VOLUME OF EXPORTS OF FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

3.7 Trade Balance

3.7.1 Trade Balance: Fruit

Table 3.43 VALUE OF TRADE BALANCE FOR FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

Table 3.44 VOLUME OF TRADE BALANCE FOR FRUIT BY SUBSECTOR IN CHINA, 1998-2004

4 SWOT ANALYSIS

4.1 Strengths

4.2 Weaknesses

4.3 Opportunities

4.4 Threats

5 CONTACTS

5.1 Trade Organisations

5.1.1 China National Cereals, Oils & Foodstuffs Import & Export Corporation

5.1.2 All-China Federation of Industry & Commerce

5.1.3 China Canned Food Industry Association

5.2 Government Departments

5.2.1 Agriculture Ministry

6 RELEVANT EXHIBITIONS & TRADE FAIRS

6.1 International Packing, Printing, Food Processing & Packaging & Plastic Machinery Fair (Hangzhou)

6.2 Tianjin Exhibition on Food Machinery & Packing

6.3 Trade Show of Machinery for Print, Packaging, Plastic Products & Food

6.4 Food Ingredients & Food Ingredients Asia

6.5 Agro-Foodtech

6.6 SIAL China

6.7 International Fast Food Products Exhibition

6.8 Zhengzhou Sugar, Alcoholic Drink & Food Trade Show

6.9 Guangzhou Exhibition on Machinery for Food, Packaging, Printing & Plastics

6.10 China Northeast International Exhibition on Food, subsidiary Material, Processing Technology & Equipment

6.11 International Exhibition For Food & Drink South China

6.12 International Exhibition For Hotel & Bakery South China

6.13 International Quick Frozen Food Exhibition

6.14 Beijing National Food & Food Processing Machine & Packaging Machinery Show

6.15 Food China

6.16 International Food, Packaging, Print, Plastic Products Exhibition

6.17 Zhejiang Food & Drink Summer Sales Show

6.18 Dalian International Food Manufacturing & Packaging Machine Exhibition/Dalian International Food, Raw Materials & Food Additives Show

6.19 Shanghai International Food Machine & Package Machine Expo

6.20 China International Fair For Food, Food Processing & Packaging

6.21 Shanghai International Supermarket Expo

6.22 Shanghai International Food Expo

6.23 Packtech & Foodtech

6.24 Liaoning Food Show

6.25 Food & Hotel South China

6.26 Chengdu International Food , Food Processing & Packaging Show

6.27 International Food Show

6.28 Interfood Shanghai

6.29 International Food Processing & Packaging Machinery Exhibition

6.30 China Food Industry Exhibition

APPENDIX 1 - MARKET BACKGROUND

A.1 Fast Facts

A.2 Regions of China

Map A.1 CHINA: PROVINCES AND MUNICIPALITIES

A.3 Demographics

A.3.1 Demographics: Total Population

Table A.1 TOTAL POPULATION, 1997�NC2004

A.3.2 Demographics: Population by Location

Table A.2 POPULATION BY URBAN-RURAL DIVIDE, 1997�NC2004

A.3.3 Demographics: Population Breakdown by Location

Table A.3 POPULATION BREAKDOWN BY URBAN-RURAL DIVIDE, 1997�NC2004

A.3.4 Demographics: Population by Province

Table A.4 POPULATION BY PROVINCE, 2001-2004

A.3.5 Demographics: Population Density by Province

Table A.5 POPULATION DENSITY BY PROVINCE, 2001-2004

A.3.6 Demographics: Population Concentration

Map A.2 POPULATION CONCENTRATIONS BY PROVINCE, 2004

A.3.7 Demographics: Population by Gender

Table A.6 TOTAL POPULATION BREAKDOWN BY GENDER, 1997�NC2004

A.3.8 Demographics: Population by Age Group

Table A.7 POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 1997�NC2004

Table A.8 % BREAKDOWN OF POPULATION BY AGE GROUP, 1997�NC2004

A.4 Consumer Attitudes

A.4.1 Consumer Attitudes: Overview

A.4.2 Consumer Attitudes: Response to Political Change

A.4.2 Consumer Attitudes: Response to Economic Change

A.4.3 Consumer Attitudes: Changes in Lifestyle

Livelihood

Individual loans

Housing

Possessions

Travel

Entertainment

Health and Fitness

Purchasing Influences

Taboos

A.5 Consumer Wealth

A.5.1 Consumer Wealth: GDP and Cost of Living

Dealing with WTO

China s New Middle Class

Confident Shoppers

Table A.9 GDP AND COST OF LIVING INDEX, 1997�NC2004

A.5.2 Consumer Wealth: Provincial Differences in GDP

Table 1.10 GDP RANKED BY PROVINCE, 1997�NC2004

A.5.3 Consumer Wealth: GDP Growth by Province

Table A.11 GDP GROWTH RANKED BY PROVINCE, 1997�NC2004

A.5.4 Consumer Wealth: GDP Per Capita by Province

Table A.12 PER CAPITA GDP RANKED BY PROVINCE, 2001-2004

A.5.5 Consumer Wealth: Concentration of Wealth by Province

Map A.3 VALUE OF GDP PER CAPITA BY PROVINCE, 2004

A.5.6 Consumer Wealth: The Major Cities

Table A.13 LEADING CITIES KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS, 2004

A.6 Households

A.6.1 Households: Overview of Household Conditions

A.6.2 Households: Total Households by Size

Table A.14 NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS BY SIZE, 1997�NC2004

A.6.3 Households: Total households by Urban/Rural Split

Table A.15 NUMBER AND SIZE OF HOUSEHOLDS BY LOCATION, 1997�NC2004

A.6.4 Households: Income Earners Per Household

Table A.16 AVERAGE NUMBER OF INCOME EARNERS PER HOUSEHOLD, 1997�NC2004

A.7 Employment

A.7.1 Employment: Number of Workers by Sector

Table A.17 NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 1997�NC2004

A.7.2 Employment: Growth by Sector

Table A.18 GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 1997�NC2004

A.7.3 Employment: Number of Workers by Gender

Table A.19 TOTAL NATIONAL WORKFORCE BY GENDER, 1997�NC2004

A.7.3 Employment: Number of Workers by Habitation

Table A.20 NATIONAL WORKFORCE BY HABITATION, 1997�NC2004

A.7.4 Employment: Urban Unemployment

Table A.21 URBAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, 1997�NC2004

A.8 Consumer Income

A.8.1 Consumer Income: Average Incomes by Sector

Table A.22 AVERAGE INCOMES BY SECTOR, 1997�NC2004

A.8.2 Consumer Income: Growth by Sector

Table A.23 GROWTH IN AVERAGE INCOMES BY SECTOR, 1997�NC2004

A.8.3 Consumer Income: Average Incomes by Region

Table A.24 AVERAGE INCOMES BY REGION, 1997�NC2004

A.8.4 Consumer Income: Growth by Region

Table A.25 GROWTH IN AVERAGE INCOMES BY REGION, 1997�NC2004

A.9 Consumer Market

A.9.1 Consumer Market: Spending Trends

Table A.26 CONSUMER EXPENDITURE* BY BROAD SECTOR AT CURRENT PRICES, 1997�NC2004*

A.9.2 Consumer Market: Per Capita Consumer Expenditure

Table A.27 PER CAPITA CONSUMER EXPENDITURE* BY BROAD SECTOR AT CURRENT PRICES, 1997�NC2004

A.9.3 Consumer Market: Retail Sales and Consumer Spending

Table A.28 RETAIL SALES AS A PROPORTION OF CONSUMER EXPENDITURE*, 1997�NC2004

A.9.4 Consumer Market: Urban Income and Spending Compared

Table A.29 URBAN AVERAGE ANNUAL INCOME/EXPENDITURE, 1997�NC2004

A.9.5 Consumer Market: Average Urban Weekly Shopping Basket

Chart A.1 AVERAGE WEEKLY URBAN SHOPPING BASKET, 2004

A.9.6 Consumer Market: Average Rural Weekly Shopping Basket

Chart A.2 AVERAGE WEEKLY RURAL SHOPPING BASKET, 2004

A.9.7 Consumer Market: Average Urban & Rural Weekly Shopping Baskets Compared

Chart A.3 URBAN & RURAL SHOPPING BASKETS COMPARED, 2004

A.10 Exchange Rates

A.10.1 Exchange Rates: China

Table A.30 AVERAGE ANNUAL EXCHANGE RATES, 1997�NC2004

A.10.2 Exchange Rates: Hong Kong

Table A.31 AVERAGE ANNUAL EXCHANGE RATES, 1997�NC2004