The Western European Mobile Market: trends and forecasts 2008-2013

Abstract

“Now that tough economic conditions seem imminent, MNOs need to understand which markets, technologies, services and segments will present the best opportunity for maximising growth.”

Mobile network operators (MNOs) in Western Europe face greater challenges today than they have ever faced: subscriber growth looks set to slow down and voice ARPU is declining because of regulatory and competitive pressures. Non---voice services have yet to live up to expectations, although some breakthroughs are being made with new mobile broadband and flat-rate mobile Internet offers.

This report analyses current trends and developments in the Western European mobile market and presents comprehensive forecasts for the region as a whole, as well as for France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and the UK. Forecasts of subscriber numbers, ARPU, revenue, retail spend and average spend per user are provided for four market segments (residential prepaid, residential contract, SMEs and large corporations), ten service categories (voice, SMS, email, other person-to-person messaging, data networking, mobile Internet, infotainment, m-commerce, videotelephony and m-advertising) and five technology generations (2G, 2.5G, 3G, 3.5G and 4G). In conjunction with these forecasts, the report examines trends in mobile technologies and in regulation as it relates to mobile termination rates, international roaming charges and MVNOs.

• How much subscriber growth is left in the Western European mobile market?
• What will be the impact on voice ARPU of increasing competition and regulatory pressure?
• Which non-voice services will generate significant additional revenue?
• What will be the impact of new mobile broadband and Internet services?

Who should read this report

• Mobile operators, MVNOs and integrated operators: understand the key trends that are shaping the mobile market in Western Europe and the consumer demand, competitive situation and regulatory factors behind these trends.
• Content and application providers: learn which mobile services will offer the best opportunities for growth over the next six years and gauge the size of the market for the various types of mobile service.
• Handset and infrastructure vendors: quantify the market opportunity for 3G and 3.5G handsets and learn where infrastructure investment is likely to grow.
• Regulators: understand the impact of key regulatory issues, in both qualitative and quantitative terms, on operators' ARPU, revenue and subscriber numbers in order to develop future regulatory strategies.
• Investors, financial analysts and consultants: gain insight into the trends driving the evolution of the mobile market in Western Europe and use detailed forecasts to inform investment decisions.