Emerging Markets Outlook

Abstract

“CSPs and vendors are turning to emerging markets in search of opportunities as the rate of market growth slows down in developed countries.”

Product overview

As the rate of market growth slows down in developed countries, CSPs and vendors are turning to emerging markets in search of opportunities. Market liberalisation in countries such as India and Russia has driven a dramatic increase in competition and, as a result, revenue growth. Markets in the Middle East and Africa are also becoming more open. OSS Observer forecasts that revenue will grow at an 11% CAGR from 2007 - 2012 in emerging markets.

In this report, OSS Observer separates some developing markets from the broader ' emerging markets' category in order to highlight differences in their characteristics. Developing markets will show higher revenue growth during the forecast period - at a 17% CAGR, compared with 9% in emerging markets, from 2007 - 2012. However, emerging markets will represent a much greater revenue opportunity: service revenue in these markets is forecast to reach $613 billion in 2012, compared with $265 billion in developing markets. The report also includes an analysis of sub-regions - Central Africa and Latin America, Eastern Europe, the Middle East and non-developed Asia - Pacific - because each presents its own opportunities and challenges.

For each sub-region, the report provides 2006 market shares and 2007 - 2012 forecasts for:

• mobile revenue
• mobile subscribers
• residential broadband revenue
• residential broadband subscribers
• business services revenue
• PSTN revenue
• PSTN lines.

Emerging markets outlook addresses the following key issues:

• How do market drivers and business environments differ among emerging and developing markets?
• Will mobile services be the dominant type of telecoms service in emerging markets?
• How will macro- and socio-economic conditions impact growth in emerging markets?
• Why does revenue growth lag subscriber growth in developing markets?
• Which CSPs have been successful in expanding beyond their home markets and entering emerging or developing markets?
• What challenges are posed by the lack of infrastructure in developing markets?
• Why do Brazil, Russia, India and China (the ' BRIC' countries) present distinct opportunities?
• Which market players are taking innovative approaches to PSTN services?
• Why does subscriber growth present challenges as well as opportunities?
• How can CSPs benefit from the growth in emerging markets?
• What opportunities do emerging markets present for vendors?

The report also provides population, GDP and GDP per capita information for each country, as well as 2006 total and service revenue and subscriber information on more than 50 Tier 1 and Tier 2 CSPs that operate in emerging markets.