Abstract
Analysys Findings
- Industrial environments
- Chinas digital television market has started, but it is still in the
development stage.
- Since national standards and policies were not issued for quite some time,
the digital television receiver industry has not entered the stage of mass
production. Because of this, no one wants to invest in it, resulting in
tremendous difficulties that are now being faced by the industry. If those
standards are issued before the end of 2005, Chinas digital television
industry will enter a rapid development era from 2006 to 2008. These standards
would cover implementation specifics like Host-Card Separation and digital
transmission technologies.
- The content resources of digital television are in short supply and the
service platform has not been completely established.
Commercial mode
- From examining commercial operation models of cities where digital
television is currently operating, the following features have been
identified. Large cities are intermediately developed and citizens have a
relatively stronger purchasing power. Government plays an important role in
the process of promoting digital television and boosting its development. The
problems of high investment and sluggish returns are addressed by the joint
assumption of investment risk for all parties. In the early stages of market
development, promotion should be stressed but efforts should be take to
minimize its popularity.
- At the same time, some common problems with the development of digital
television have been discovered. The availability of suitable content is the
most important bottleneck to the development of digital television. Current
models of STB sales go against the development of digital television market.
The costs of partnerships are unclear and there are potential disagreements
with the division of the returned benefits. Interactive TV programs are in
short supply. Finally, the digital television industry does not show its
advantages. These problems should be solved as the industry grows and
development proceeds.
User scale and market scale
- In 2004, there were 1,020,000 subscribers of digital television, and in
2005 it is estimated that there will be 5,350,000 home subscribers. The
beginning of an explosive growth trend gradually appears. After this rapid
growth from 2006 to 2007, it is estimated that there will be 50,000,000
residential subscribers of digital television by the end of 2008. The compound
growth rate of digital television subscribers is estimated at 164.6% from 2004
to 2008.
- The number of digital television sets sold from 2004 to 2008 is expected
to exceed 25 million. This has a compounded growth rate of 79.7%. The volume
of digital STBs sold during the same time is expected to exceed 21 million,
reaching a compound growth rate of 126.4%.
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