Hybrid & Electric Vehicles Market 2005-2015 - Impact on the Battery Market

Table of Contents

• TOYOTA PRIUS : The success story
• Aim of the Study
• Methodology
• Interviews
• Several announcements in 2005-2006

PART 1: WHY HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE?

• HEV: Advantages / Issues
• Companies Global Opinion on HEV
• HEV models on the market
• Three main reasons to buy an HEV
• Global petroleum consumption will drastically grow in the next few years
• Fuel prices will remain very high, about $3/gallon in USA
• Reduction of CO2 emission
• Worldwide Motor Gasoline Demand in million tons (1949-2005)
• The WTI* price grew drastically during the last two years
• The US Diesel & Gasoline price peak in 2006.
• Gasoline price in USA
• Fuel price remains much more expensive in EU than in US
• CO2 Emission: USA & China are the most polluting countries
• HEV costs & amortization: Diesel in Europe is still much more economic than hybrid

PART 2: WHAT IS AN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE?

• What makes a HEV?
• HEV segmentation
• PHEV compared with regular hybrid
• Plug-in Hybrids conversions
• HEV Market: Toyota is the leader
• HEV vehicles Worldwide in 2005
• Why HEV market is so small in EUROPE?
• HEV is more fitted for the US market
• European and US taxes for Gasoline

PART 3: REGULATORY ISSUES IN ORDER TO PROMOTE HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLE

• Kyoto Protocol
• European Emission Standards
• US situation
• Tier 2 standard
• Global emission standard 2005-2015
• CO2 average emission for passengers car
• Policies Reducing taxes and incentives on HEV per countries
• Corporations incentives in the US
• ACEEE Estimates of HEV Tax credits

PART 4: CAR MAKERS AND AUTO PART MAKER' S STRATEGIES

• TOYOTA LEADERSHIP
• Toyota HEV Sales in the US in 2006
• Ford, Honda & others
• Ford USA HEV sales in 2006
• HEV Strategies and Involvement
• Toyota HEV Program
• Comparison between Toyota hybrids in USA
• Honda: many upcoming models
• FORD: HEV models
• Auto parts makers in HEV
• Auto parts makers & car makers Partnerships

PART 5: BATTERIES FOR HYBRID VEHICLES

• Sources statements on batteries
• Batteries characteristics - NiMH, Li-ion
• HEV battery requirements
• Is LI-ION likely to replace NIMH in coming years?
• Li-Ion batteries in the portable electronic business
• Nickel metal hydride (NiMH) batteries are dominating the power-assist hybrid market
• Which battery for the future?

PART 6: BATTERIES SUPPLIERS

• Investment on LI-ION for HEV
• Majors battery suppliers market shares per technology and per volume, sales in 2005
• Japanese, Chinese and Korean market shares, in value
• NiMH Battery: Market shares in 2005 in volume & value worldwide
• Li-ion & Polymer Battery: Market shares in 2005 in volume & value worldwide
• Battery Industry in 2005: NiCd, NiMH & Li-ion competitors market shares in volume
• Sales per chemistry
• Japanese, Chinese & Korean market shares 2005
• Battery Industry in 2005
• Main challenges for batteries suppliers
• Strategies on HEV in figures
• Batteries suppliers relationships
• Batteries suppliers & auto parts makers relationships
• Sanyo
• Panasonic
• Valence technology
• Johnson Controls - Saft
• A123
• BYD

PART 7: HYBRID VEHICLES' PERSPECTIVES

• R&D on HEV : Toyota, Nissan & Ford
• Patent topic on HEV for Toyota, Nissan & Honda from 80' to 2003
• Hybrid diesel vehicles
• Other developments: Hydraulic diesel, Pneumatic hybrid, High Power Bio diesel
• TOYOTA next generation Battery
• Bollore
• Tepco
• Saab
• Toshiba
• Valence technology
• Sanyo
• Laboratories R &D ON HEV : NREL, ARGONNE, AVT,
• Cathode: A key component for a battery
  • Cobalt needs for battery in 2006
  • Cobalt price 2003-2006
  • Raw material of the future replacing cobalt oxide?
  • The phosphate
  • The Lithium Nano Scale particles
  • LI(Ni-Mn-Co)O2 & LINiMnCoAlO2 Cathode
  • LiFePO4
  • LiMnPO4
  • LIFePO4/Li4Ti5O12

PART 8: HYBRID VEHICLE' S SUBSTITUTES

• Fuel cells
• Gas GPL
• Biofuel

PART 9: FORECASTS ON HEV AND BATTERIES MARKETS

• Light hybrid cars evolution from their launching day : Prius, Camry, Civic, Accord, Altima
• SUV hybrid cars evolution: Highlander, Escape, Mariner
• HEV forecasts by country 2003-2015
• HEV forecasts by auto makers 2003-2015
• HEV penetration worldwide, 2003-2015
• HEV penetration by country 2003-2015
• HEV penetration by car makers 2003-2015
• HEV penetration in Toyota vehicle sales, by country 2003-2015
• HEV penetration in Honda vehicle sales, by country 2003-2015
• HEV penetration in Ford vehicle sales, by country 2003-2015
• HEV penetration in USA & other countries 2003-2015
• HEV cars makers market share 2003-2007
• Energy need in MWh for HEV by car makers 2003-2015
• Average energy per HEV car 2003-2007
• Battery market in M$ by car makers 2005-2007
• Car makers battery needs in M$ 2005-2007
• NiMH Vs. Li-ion for the future
  • Comparing Li-ion penetration in Portable PCs, Cellular Phones & HEV
  • NiMH technology is mature
  • Price of the Portable energy for HEV today and tomorrow
  • NIMH and LI-ION price in the future
  • Time development to launch a new car
• HEV battery market 2003-2010 for NiMH & Li-ion batteries
• Long term HEV battery forecasts 2010-2015
  • 2 scenarios analysis

PART 10: CONCLUSIONS

• ANNEXES