REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
- The overall U.S. market for nex gen vehicle components is estimated at $35 million in 2004 and is expected to rise at an AAGR (average annual growth rate) of 42.8% to $208 million in 2009.
- Rising at an AAGR of 55.2%, fuel cell modules will represent 43% of the total in 2009, up from 28.6% in 2004 due to more rapidly falling prices of other components.
- The need for a fuel cell vehicle to have horsepower and performance more comparable to a traditional vehicle will become more obvious within the next five years.
- The advanced battery market for fuel cell transportation will see growth in nickel-metal hydride batteries, large format lithium-ion/polymer batteries and ultracapacitors alone, or in combination with batteries. This sector will show an AAGR of 36.8% over the five-year period.
Value for Major Components for U.S. Fuel Cell Vehicles, 1998-2009
($ Millions)
;Source: BCC, Inc.
INTRODUCTION
In the U.S., comparatively traditional automotive technologies and methodologies in both manufacturing and engineering development still are the norm, albeit modernized considerably in the last 20 years. The forces impacting the retention of traditional technology and the development of newer technology essentially remain the same as they have for 50 years. A good deal of shaking down in the industry is foreseen as management and technology sectors are realigned. Many factors are involved that will influence how all this plays out.
This timely BCC report analyzes the technology advances that offer the promise of performance equal to traditional power sources for transportation. There are growing needs for efficient and affordable zero emission, noncrude oil dependent vehicles, the most serious and pressing of which clearly emerged in mid-2004 as oil prices soared beyond $40 a barrel and U.S. gas prices skyrocketed. These factors will be addressed in the report. Environmental
considerations also are driving the development of fuel cell vehicles.
The study focuses on four major components for fuel cell vehicles. They include the fuel cell module as the vehicle engine, hydrogen storage, batteries or ultracapacitors as energy storage to assist the fuel cell, and the electric motor and drive. The report looks at the structure of the automotive industry, the companies involved with these advanced components, initiatives for the automotive industry and its suppliers, and the value of the projected markets for these components for next-generation vehicles.
SCOPE OF STUDY
The report contains:
- Overview of the changing U.S. auto industry and automotive technology
- Examination of the four major components of nex gen vehicles: fuel cell modules, hydrogen storage, batteries and ultracapacitors, and the electric motor and drive
- Analysis of the projected markets for these components with forecasts through 2009
- Identification of the companies competing for their share of this technological advance
- Analysis of the primary factors shaping the marketplace: government, the automotive industry itself and the consumer.
METHODOLOGY AND INFORMATION SOURCES
Research for this report began with an in-depth analysis of technical, patent, and business literature. Interviews with industry experts, company representatives, federal government researchers, and university scientists provide the basis for an assessment of the position for fuel cell vehicles, both as hybrids and as the sole power source. Other information comes from BCC, Inc.s monthly newsletters Fuel Cell Technology News, Battery and EV Technology News, and Membrane & Separation Technology News.
The report makes projections for each market in terms of constant dollars. Historical values are presented for the given year. The focus is on the U.S. Overseas activity is mentioned, putting the U.S. market into global context. Values that are given for components are based on the best estimates by individuals involved in the sale or commercialization of the technology and do not represent engineering or integration value in a vehicle.
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