Abstract
This first assessment of Dark Fibre in regional emerging markets (26 country
markets are included) reveals encouraging signs of growth in deployment.
Demand drivers are present, new optical hardware and software is available
although apparently at a higher price than in western markets, and even duct
space is present, owned largely by railways and utilities. Yet to ensure that
Dark Fibre enables sustained economic progress, and is adopted by enterprises,
regulatory action is crucial. So far, it seems only the academic community is
lobbying for changes in state policy that will open many of these markets to
infrastructure competition, but lack financial firepower. Liberalisation has
frequently been delayed in South Eastern Europe. Even where utilities have
constructed fibre networks, sales to third parties remains under-exploited and
the opportunity diminished.
Against this background of mixed market environments, Dark Fibre is niche, but
nevertheless assuming a more important role. Research for the report suggests
that in some instances, Dark Fibre is more prevalently perceived as a tactical
deployment, as investment focuses on network upgrades to engage in future
triple or quad plays. WiMAX, rather than Dark Fibre, is also recognised as a
cheaper way to bypass the local loop. NRENs are driving demand for Dark Fibre
across the entire region compared to enterprises.
Yet much is forecast to change, and future opportunity for Dark Fibre will
emerge as more strategic. In the first instance, there is a clear need to
elevate Dark Fibre from its perception as a raw unmanaged capacity to a
quality longer term investment, that delivers a range of standard and premium
managed services. Additionally, as the increasingly critical mobile segments
approach mass maturity, the demand for Dark Fibre will amplify. Alternative
operators represent a wholesale opportunity and Enterprises will become a key
target segment for services.
The report casts a wide net across 26 markets, where Dark Fibre products still
appear to be limited. However this could be a function of market supply and
result from the drive towards optical networking evidenced in western Europe.
Country markets themselves are changing: Russia is seen to change
significantly in terms of its Dark Fibre infrastructure by 2010. Competition
in a number of countries (particularly in South Eastern Europe) has been slow
to emerge, but there is reason to believe that new forms of telecoms
infrastructure will appear over the next twelve months in a number of
countries in the region.
Much depends on the regulator, and changes in competition law, stimulated in
part as countries who are accession states begin to change legal frameworks.
In less developed markets, demand is led by NRENs ("leap-frogging" their
western counterparts by adopting optical networks with optical POPs) now, but
will extend to enterprises. A wider customer base and the availability of
wholesale services will support this evolution. The report did not find that
FTTH (fibre to the home) and FTTP (fibre to the premise) deployments were
among the key drivers of growth and they remain less popular than in western
Europe with the exception of Russia, Poland and Greece. New Dark Fibre routes
are also emerging such as Turkey, and also cross-border Dark Fibre within the
central and eastern region.
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