[Report] Connector Technology Roadmap Report

Bishop and Associates has released a new six chapter, 183-page report covering technology roadmapping on electronic connectors. Included with the Bishop Connector Roadmap report is the National Electronic Manufacturing Initiative's (NEMI1) 2002 Electronics Industry Roadmap on CD (1,100 pages).

During 2002, Bishop and Associates, Inc. worked with other industry experts to research and author a connector roadmap that became part of the National Electronic Manufacturing Initiative's 2002 Technology Roadmap Report.

Covered in the new report is a 10-year roadmap of selected elements of the electronic connector industry from 2003 to 2013, a review of connector technology trends, and a discussion of the roadmapping process. It contains PCB Connectors, backplane connectors, processor and memory test sockets power connectors, high-speed connectors, etc. It also includes an interpretation of the NEMI roadmaps' impact on connectors. The intent is to expand on this data for future reports, adding additional product categories, industry segment analyses, and support for the 2004 NEMI roadmap process.

The Connector Technology Roadmap Report includes insights into outsourcing to EMS, ODM and other subcontractors, and the move to high volume system manufacturing to China. It discusses how these dynamics will affect the connector industry, which is also increasing its presence in China to maintain customers and remain competitive. Questions emerge about the future of western manufacturing and RD&E infrastructure that supports these high volume markets. This is affecting standard product manufacturing and supply chains such as mobile phones and PDAs, notebook and desktop computers and PC motherboards, PC servers, computer peripherals, telecom equipment, etc. Even the increasingly competitive automotive sector will be subject to these trends.

Report Objective

Analyze and expand upon first connector industry roadmap report.
Provide a framework for future roadmapping efforts.
Interpret NEMI Roadmap vis-a-vis the connector industry.

The Connector Report is organized into 6 sections:

Roadmap Overview
Chapter 1 - Technology Roadmapping as a Business Discipline
Chapter 2 - Connector Technology and Core Competency Trends
Chapters 3 to 5 - Connector Technology Roadmaps
Chapter 6 - Review/Interpretation of NEMI Roadmap
NEMI 2002 National Technology Roadmap - Attached CD

The NEMI 2002 Roadmap CD includes alphabetically:

1. Appendices

2. Acknowledgements

3. Automotive & Defense

4. Board Assembly

5. Consumer Products

6. Digital Silicon

7. Displays

8. Electronic Connectors

9. Energy Storage Batteries

10. Environmental Electronics Pb-Free

11. Exec. Summary

12. Final Assembly

13. Forward

14. Interconnect Substrates - Inorganic

15. Interconnect Substrates - Organic

16. Introduction

17. Large Business Systems

18. Mass Data Storage Drives

19. Modeling, Simulation & Design Tools

20. Office Systems

21. Optoelectronics

22. Packaging

23. Passive Components

24. Portable Systems

25. Product Life Cycle Management

26. RF Components

27. Test & Measurement

28. Thermal Management

The Connector Roadmap does not identify any abrupt roadblocks to continued connector usage. More gradual shifts will include the continuing process of circuit integration, innovation in electronic packaging, wireless applications, and the decline of western manufacturing. It does indicate that there will be continuing performance improvements and design innovation, miniaturization, and the eventual shift to alternative technologies such as fiber optics and MEMS. As in the past, connectors will continue to evolve - influenced by physical and electrical limits imposed by core connector technologies and application as a separable interface:

IC Technology Moore's Law will continue to drive equipment design.
This will increasingly include System-on-Chip and System-in-Package designs.
These equipment and packaging trends will heavily influence connector design.
Connectors will continue to be limited by core technology and electro-mechanical function.
There is a potential shift to new 'monolithic' PCB designs that could affect many components.

Business forces - technology forces, include:

2001-2003 electronics recession which is not yet over in computers and telecom.
Global competition and supply chain management - I.e. Increasing pressure on logistics.
Industry standardization & multiple sourcing requirements.
Trend toward outsourcing at all levels of the food chain.
Shifts in mfg to China - from the US, EU, Mexico, Japan, Taiwan, etc..
Infrastructure issues that will result from offshore manufacturing.

Specific connector designs will be subject to more rapid change and obsolescence, particularly as product life cycles shrink at the equipment level and business becomes more global. Legacy designs do remain after decades of production, but are no longer 'cash cows' due to significant price erosion.

The pace of change in connectors lags semiconductors. Proprietary connector designs are less popular, creating additional pressure on ASPs. In addition, core technologies are now practiced worldwide, life cycles are shorter, and competitive advantage comes more from cost leadership and customer service.

Significant design and business flexibility remains within the connector industry, which has always been very good at electro-mechanical engineering and high volume manufacturing. In addition, OEMs are outsourcing - massively. This means they and their subcontractors are looking for suppliers who can do more, support them globally, and provide error-free product at a competitive price.

1The National Electronic Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI) is a non-profit industry consortium based in Herndon, VA. Its charter is to strengthen North America's electronics manufacturing infrastructure including its supply chain, through visionary leadership, cooperative programs, reports, and standards initiatives. One of NEMI's major efforts is its bi-annual North American Electronic Manufacturing Roadmap. NEMI members include OEMs and component manufacturers.