Abstract
RFID has arrived in China in an unprecedented manner: In-Stat forecasts that
over 100 million tags shipped in 2005, and more than 2.9 billion tags will be
shipped by 2009.
Major RFID usage will be first on human ID, and then on product ID. The
issuance of an RFID tag inlaid resident ID card by the Ministry of Public
Security to over 1.3 billion people starting in 2004, is one of the biggest
RFID projects in the world. Beginning in 2008, In-Stat sees RFID tags used for
articles exceeding those used for resident ID cards, making the retail
industry the biggest consumer of tags, with about 1 billion in 2009. Logistics
and supply chain are the second biggest area, with about 400 million tags in
2009.
Problems obstructing the universal adoption of tags include:
- Prices are still relatively expensive, ranging from a low of around
US$0.15 to a high of over US$200.
- RFID standards--incompatible standards are obstacles for an open supply
chain that crosses industries and territories. Standards are still being
worked on.
Currently in China, the government is the overriding force behind RFID
adoption. When tag prices depreciate enough to substitute updating bar codes,
the adoption of RFID will be driven primarily by Chinese entrepreneurs and
supply-chain participants.
Like the mobile telephony industry's Y-O-Y revenue growth exceeding 20% most
of the last two decades, the RFID industry looks to follow the same maturity
pattern and enjoy a lengthy sustained growth.
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