Global Fixed Broadband Subscriber Forecast: 2007-2017

Abstract

Bethesda, MD, February 1, 2008 - DITTBERNER' s recently released report “Global Fixed Broadband Subscriber Forecast: 2007-2017”, predicts that fixed broadband port shipments will peak in 2011 at 168 Million ports a 17% increase over 2007. After that, the shipments will decline to 140 Million by 2017.the report details global fixed broadband port shipments and forecasts shipments for the years 2007-2017 for DSL, Cable Modem, FTTB, FTTH, and UTP/FTP LAN.

DSL shipments remain the leader throughout the forecast period because of the robust market in China where DSL shipments will reach 41 Million in 2012, before declining. The peak in global DSL shipments in 2007 is due to the upgrading of legacy DSL networks with IP DSLAMs. This also causes another peak in 2011 as maintenance buys to cover this surge are needed. After 2011 more DSL users will move to other technologies so maintenance buys will not be as large. The dip in DSL shipments between 2007 and 2011 is because markets like the USA, Japan, Korea, and France are switching to fiber. The slight increase in 2009 is an artifact of the timing of these projected network upgrades.

Cable Modem growth is seen as stable, because as developed countries saturate, developing countries, such as India, will be growing. FTTB, which is used in conjunction with VDSL or Ethernet LANs, is seen as the strongest growing technology by 2017, because it provides high bandwidth and is economical to install. The high cost of FTTH is seen as an inhibitor to its growth throughout the study period. “The amount of revenue generated by IPTV in most markets is not sufficient to pay for FTTH,” says James Heath, Dittberner' s Director of broadband research. “Most TV revenue is in North America and it will take time to develop elsewhere. Unless a new revenue generating application is found, FTTH will remain financially unviable in most markets over the next decade.”

The report uses past broadband growth, Teledensity, Fixed line infrastructure information, Cable TV infrastructure information, PC ownership and consumer buying preferences to provide the most accurate model possible of the evolving broadband market. This report provides a realistic scenario on the evolution of the fixed broadband market over the next decade, and the market Dittberner sees in 2017 will be vastly different from today' s market, providing great opportunities for the swift and the smart.

“Global Fixed Broadband Subscriber Forecast: 2007-2017”, details fixed broadband subscriber growth in 66 countries from 2001-2007 and forecasts growth through 2017 for various access technologies (DSL, Cable, Fiber and UTP/FTP). It is forecast that global fixed broadband subscribers exceed 859 Million by 2017 and that the global market slows but does not reach saturation. “China' s broadband penetration will still be less than Korea' s and Denmark' s is today.” says James Heath, Dittberner' s Director of broadband research. “As with most emerging markets, China' s growth is limited by household PC ownership, but that jumped 23% in 2007 and is unlikely to slow soon.”

As the decade progresses more and more of the new broadband subscribers will be added in the emerging markets. China is poised to surpass the USA this quarter and will pull far away by 2017. India is expected to be third, using mostly a rebuilt HFC infrastructure, as its cable network is still growing strongly. Although developing countries will be more prevalent, developed markets will be providing higher average bandwidth per subscriber. If PC ownership is accelerated, or if non-PC based broadband services, like IPTV, take off, growth would be even greater.

• USA
• China
• Japan
• Germany
• United Kingdom
• France
• Korea
• Italy
• Canada
• Spain
• China
• USA
• India
• Russia
• Japan
• Germany
• Brazil
• France
• United Kingdom
• Italy