Gas Exporting Countries Forum - An Overview

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The GECF is a loosely defined group of gas producers seeking to represent and benefit their mutual interests

The GECF is opposed to the movement away from long term purchase contracts resulting from liberalisation

CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION

This report examines the role played by the GECF and explores its potential to develop into a gas OPEC

CHAPTER 3 MARKET CONTEXT

The GECF members are united by their mutual gas production interests, though consensus of opinion is not guaranteed

Membership of the GECF has grown since its formation

At its formation in 2001 the GECF members collectively produced 39% of the worlds gas

GECF collective reserves at its formation stood at 69% of the world total giving it a significant degree of strength

Like reserves, GECF production levels have increased since formation

The addition of new members and reserve replacement has increased GECF reserves and its proportion of the world total

Differing production and reserves positions amongst the members lead to widely differing R/P ratios

The role of gas in the overall hydrocarbon production mix varies widely between members

The GECF members are at widely differing stages of economic growth and development as evidenced by their per capital GDPs

Fiscal reliance on the energy sector varies significantly between members

The different agendas and positions of the GECF members manifests itself in the differing attitudes to lobbying

CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS OF MEETINGS

The first GECF meeting took place in May 2001 and focused on strongly denying that it had any intentions to be a gas OPEC

The first meeting outlined a twelve point plan of objectives for the organisation

Security of supply and EU liberalisation also featured prominently on the first meetings agenda

In addition to further denials that it was intending to become a gas OPEC, the second meeting raised a number of new issues

The third meeting was dominated by almost identical issues to the second meeting

The fourth meeting debated similar issues though was characterised by Venezuelas announcement that it was keen for the GECF to evolve into a Gas OPEC

Following the fourth meeting, Egypt continued its campaign for gas price decoupling from oil

The latest meeting was a relatively muted affair with few new issues debated

CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS

There are a number of reasons that make it unlikely that the GECF will emerge as a gas OPEC

Differing agendas and difficulties in reaching consensus

The disparate nature of the membership

The Existence of Long Term Contracts

Gas is not a global market

Difficulties in allocating production quotas

The threat of international anti-cartel laws

CHAPTER 6 METHODOLOGY

Statistical Notes

Abbreviations Used

Related reports and contact details

List of Figures

Figure 1: GECF Membership

Figure 2: Founder Member Production Levels 2001

Figure 3: Founder Member Reserves 2001

Figure 4: GECF Production 2004

Figure 5: GECF Reserves 2004

Figure 6: GECF Gas Production and Reserves (2004)

Figure 7: GECF Oil and Gas Production (2004)

Figure 8: Role of Energy in GDP vs Per Capita GDP

Figure 9: Percentage of GDP Sourced from Energy sector