Abstract
Overview
Introduction
'Big Pharma' (non-biotech companies with annual revenues >$10bn) has
historically focused on small molecules. However, this is set to change, with
around 60% of revenue growth forecast to come from biologic products
(therapeutic proteins and monoclonal antibodies): by 2010, annual sales of
biologics will have increased by $26bn, compared to a $13bn increase for small
molecules.
Scope
- Global sales forecasts for all Big Pharma products, split by company,
therapy area and technology type, spanning the period 2001-10
- Introduction to the 'technology lifecycle' concept and assignment of each
of the four drug classes to distinct positions along the lifecycle
- Evaluation of the competitive forces that impact the drug types, including
generic exposure, access to new technology suppliers and pricing leverage
- Strategic assessment of Roche's relationship with Genentech, and Novartis'
contrasting approach of pursuing growth in the small molecule arena
Report Highlights
Within the Big Pharma peer set, the revenue growth rate to 2010 forecast for
biologics is a robust CAGR of 13.0%, outstripping the near-static CAGR of 0.9%
predicted for small molecules. The small molecule growth rate is depressed by
continued exposure to intense generic competition.
Big Pharma has assumed a strong position within the antibody market, a major
attraction of this product type being the total absence of generic risk. In
contrast, bio-similars are an emerging threat for members of the therapeutic
protein class.
Roche is the leading Big Pharma player within the biologics market. It holds
an extremely strong position in the antibody market thanks to its 1990 merger
with Genentech. As a result, Roche is forecast to record the highest sales
growth rate to 2010 within the peer set, equal to an increase in annual
company sales of $14bn.
Reasons to Purchase
- Understand, in dollar terms, the changing nature of product technology
within 'Big Pharma' using sales forecasts through to 2010
- Assess the competitive forces driving significantly stronger growth for
antibodies in comparison to small molecules and therapeutic proteins
- Be prepared for the end-of-decade acceleration in vaccine sales and scan
the horizon for future technology waves, including nucleic acid therapeutics
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