Energy & Utilities Outlook - Five factors that will shape the future of Global Utilities: Predictions for 2007 and beyond

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an informally structured group of some of the world's leading gas producers. Collectively the GECF controls around three quarters of the world's gas reserves and over 40% of production. This collective strength has lead to concerns by gas importers that the GECF has the potential to evolve into a gas version of OPEC.

Scope

• The collective strength and market control of the GECF is analysed in the context of its changing membership structure.
• The differing and divergent agendas and motivations of individual GECF members are highlighted.

Report Highlights

Membership has fluctuated since the GECF's formation in 2001 and currently consists of Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Norway (as an observer), Oman, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad & Tobago, the UAE and Venezuela. Together these countries account for 73% of global gas reserves and 41% of production.

Despite being united by a common role as gas producers, the GECF members have very different agendas. So far these differences have presented little problem other than occasionally diverging rhetoric, though potential exists for more significant and divisive differences of opinion if the GECF evolves into a more structured organisation.

Reasons to Purchase

• Analyse the potential for the GECF to cartelise the global gas market.
• Obtain an overview of the differing motivations and agendas of the GECF members.
• DATAMONITOR VIEW
  • CATALYST
  • As security of supply issues move to the fore against a backdrop of rising oil prices and political tensions, the role of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), and its potential role as a cartel, grow.
  • SUMMARY
  • A number of gas consumers, particularly those heavily dependent on imports, have expressed fears that the GECF has the potential to emerge as a gas version of OPEC. Behind these fears are concerns that any such emergence of a gas cartel will bring with it price spikes and a detrimental impact to energy supply security. However, despite these concerns it is increasingly apparent that the GECF lacks the necessary cohesion and required structural factors to emerge as a gas cartel, despite the agendas of some of its members.
  • METHODOLOGY
• ANALYSIS
  • The GECF is a loosely defined group of gas producers seeking to represent and benefit their mutual interests
  • The combined strength of the GECF members represents a significant proportion of gas production
  • Collectively the GECF controls the majority of global gas reserves
  • The production and reserve positions of GECF members varies widely
  • The role of gas in the overall hydrocarbon production mix is another area of considerable difference amongst GECF members
  • A wide divergence exists in the stages of economic growth and development as reached by GECF members
  • There are a number of structural and political factors making it unlikely that the GECF will emerge as a gas OPEC
  • The future role and influence of the GECF will remain limited
• APPENDIX
  • Further reading
  • Ask the analyst
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: GECF production
    • Figure 2: GECF reserves
    • Figure 3: GECF Production versus Reserves
    • Figure 4: GECF Oil and Gas Production (2005)
    • Figure 5: GECF Per Capita GDP Levels (2005)