Commercial Insight: Antidiabetics - Patent expiries and cost containment initiatives balanced by pipeline products

Table of Contents

• ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
  • About the Cardiovascular pharmaceutical analysis team
• CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Objective of the analysis
  • Datamonitor insight into the antidiabetics market
• CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
  • Market definition for this report
  • Current market situation
    • National markets
  • The insulin market
    • Lantus
    • Humalog
    • NovoRapid/NovoLog
    • NovoLin
    • Humulin
    • Levemir
    • Apidra
    • Outlook
  • The oral antidiabetics (OADs) market
    • Thiazolidinediones
      • Actos
      • Avandia
    • Sulfonylureas
    • Biguanides
    • Prandial glucose regulators (PGRs)
    • Alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs)
    • Outlook
  • Incretin mimetics
    • Exenatide
    • Outlook
• CHAPTER 3 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS
  • Current and future opportunities and threats in the antidiabetics market
    • Global opportunities and threats
      • Opportunities
      • Threats
    • US: current market assessment
      • Overview
      • US opportunities
      • US threats
    • Japan: current market assessment
      • Overview
      • Japan opportunities
      • Japan threats
    • EU5: current market assessment
      • Overview
    • EU5: opportunities and threats
      • EU5 Opportunities
      • EU5 Threats
    • France: current market assessment
      • Overview
    • France: opportunities and threats
      • France opportunities
      • France threats
    • Germany: current market assessment
      • Overview
    • Germany: opportunities and threats
      • Germany opportunities
      • Germany threats
    • Italy: current market assessment
      • Overview
    • Italy: opportunities and threats
      • Italy opportunities
      • Italy threats
    • Spain: current market assessment
      • Overview
    • Spain: opportunities and threats
      • Spain opportunities
      • Spain threats
    • UK: current market assessment
      • Overview
    • UK: opportunities and threats
      • UK opportunities
      • UK threats
  • Summary of environmental issues affecting the antidiabetic market size
• CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS
  • Assumptions and events
    • Ongoing trends
      • Increasing market size
    • Trial results
      • CHICAGO and PERISCOPE
      • DREAM
      • ACCORD
      • ADOPT
      • ORIGIN
      • NAVIGATOR
    • New product launches
      • Byetta LAR
      • Liraglutide (NN-2211)
      • Januvia (sitagliptin, MK-0431)
      • Galvus (vildagliptin, LAF-237)
      • Metaglidasen (MBX-102)
      • Exubera
      • AIR inhalable insulin
      • AERx-iDMS inhalable insulin
      • Technosphere inhalable insulin
      • Oral-lyn (Generex)
    • Patent expiries
  • Limitations of data
  • Forecasts
• CHAPTER 5 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES
  • Introduction
  • Case study 1 - Will changes in diabetes therapy outweigh the issues currently surrounding it?
    • Issues with the current treatment of diabetes
      • Current treatment is suboptimal
      • Inappropriate definitions/monitoring
      • Failing to address/prevent cardiovascular complications
      • Unclear how best to treat Type 2 diabetes
      • Compliance/polypharmacy/secondary drug failure
      • Weight gain
    • Changes in diabetes therapy
      • Understanding of the pathophysiology of diabetes
      • Awareness of insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome
      • Insulin sensitizers versus insulin secretagogues
      • Increased treatment with combination therapy
      • Holistic approach
      • Overlap between cardiology and endocrinology
      • Proposed paradigm shift towards prevention
    • Conclusions
      • Diabetes could drive the primary care market
      • New intervention points could create big new markets
      • New understanding leads to new drug markets
      • Biotechnology is potentially a big winner
  • Case study 2 - A rich and diverse diabetes pipeline is expected to drive growth
    • GLP-1 Agonists
      • Mechanism of action
      • Advantages
      • Disadvantages
      • Market potential
    • DPP-4 inhibitors
      • Mechanism of action
      • Advantages
      • Disadvantages
      • Market potential
    • Inhaled insulin
      • Advantages
      • Disadvantages
      • Market potential
    • Conclusion
• APPENDIX A - MAJOR BRAND KEY FACTS
  • Insulin market data
    • Humulin
    • Humalog
    • NovoLin
    • NovoRapid/NovoLog
    • Lantus
  • TZDs market data
    • Actos
    • Avandia
  • Sulfonylureas market data
    • Amaryl
    • Glucotrol XL
  • Biguanide market data
    • Glucophage and Glucophage XR
• APPENDIX B
  • Bibliography
    • Epidemiology
    • Clinical trial data
  • Report methodology
    • Standard units
    • Japanese market data
• APPENDIX C - MARKET FORECAST DATA
  • US forecasts
  • Japan forecasts
  • France forecasts
  • Germany forecasts
  • Italy forecasts
  • Spain forecasts
  • UK forecasts
  • M5EU forecasts
  • Global forecasts
  • About Datamonitor
    • About Datamonitor Healthcare
    • About the Cardiovascular Disease analysis team
    • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Global sales in the antidiabetic market by drug class, 2005
    • Table 2: Global sales of the leading branded insulin families, 2004-05
    • Table 3: Global sales of the leading branded TZDs, 2004-05
    • Table 4: Global sales of the leading branded sulfonylureas, 2004-05
    • Table 5: Global sales of the leading branded biguanide, 2004-05
    • Table 6: Global sales of the leading branded PGRs, 2004-05
    • Table 7: Global sales of the leading branded AGIs, 2004-05
    • Table 8: Prevalence of obesity in the seven major markets by age (000s), 2005
    • Table 9: US sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 10: Japan sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 11: EU5 sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 12: French sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 13: German sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 14: Italian sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 15: Spanish sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 16: UK sales and growth of drug classes
    • Table 17: The ten clinical areas of the Quality Outcome Framework, as outlined in the GMS contract, 2005
    • Table 18: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting antidiabetics market
    • Table 19: Humulin: key facts
    • Table 20: Humalog: key facts
    • Table 21: NovoLin: key facts
    • Table 22: NovoLog: key facts
    • Table 23: Lantus: key facts
    • Table 24: Actos: key facts
    • Table 25: Avandia: key facts
    • Table 26: Amaryl: key facts
    • Table 27: Glucotrol XL: key facts
    • Table 28: Glucophage and Glucophage XR: key facts
    • Table 29: US antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 30: Japanese antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 31: French antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 32: German antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 33: Italian antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 34: Spanish antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 35: UK antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 36: M5EU antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
    • Table 37: Global antidiabetic sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Sales and growth for antidiabetic drug classes in the seven major markets, 2004-05
    • Figure 2: Share of antidiabetics market represented by each of the seven major markets in 2005
    • Figure 3: Pioglitazone's effects on triglyceride and HDL cholesterol levels
    • Figure 4: Proportion of population 20-39 years of age, 2003 and 2015 and prevalence of diabetes in this age group, 2003
    • Figure 5: Proportion of population 40-59 years of age, 2003 and 2015 and prevalence of diabetes in this age group, 2003
    • Figure 6: Proportion of population 60-79 years of age, 2003 and 2015 and prevalence of diabetes in this age group, 2003
    • Figure 7: Annual US sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 8: Annual Japan sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 9: Annual EU5 sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 10: Annual French sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 11: Annual German sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 12: A fall in reference prices is likely to lead to greater use of generics
    • Figure 13: Annual Italian sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 14: Annual Spanish sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 15: Although generic sales and volume use have increased over the last ten years, the generics market only accounts for a small proportion of the Spanish pharmaceutical market
    • Figure 16: Annual UK sales of the antidiabetic drug classes, 2002-05
    • Figure 17: Summary of global and EU specific opportunities and threats affecting the diabetes market, 2006
    • Figure 18: Summary of US and Japan-specific opportunities and threats affecting the diabetes market, 2006
    • Figure 19: Summary of country-specific opportunities and threats affecting the diabetes market, 2006