[Report] Antihypertensives Commercial Insight Market Research, Trends, Analysis TOC

ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Objective of the analysis
- Datamonitor insight into the hypertension market
- Summary of key milestones in the antihypertensives market
CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION AND OVERVIEW
- Sales figures definition for this report
- Market definition and overview for this report
- Current pharmaceutical market situation
- Strategic scoping and focus
CHAPTER 3 COUNTRY MARKET ASSESSMENTS
- Global market level assessment, opportunities and threats
  - Market level assessment
  - Opportunities
    - Demographic and lifestyle trends continue to dominate the agenda, and have the potential to increase the hypertensive patient population
    - Big pharma cannot ignore the emerging markets of India and China
    - Novel products are expected, but innovation is lacking in antihypertensive R&D
    - Growing awareness of the metabolic syndrome
  - Threats
    - Increased generic competition
    - Parallel trade
- US: market level assessment, opportunities and threats
  - Market level assessment
  - Opportunities
    - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising is legal in the US and has been shown to influence patient prescription choice and increase diagnosis rates
    - Leveraging the JNC7 guidelines to maximize pharmacotherapy
  - Threats
    - The changing healthcare environment in the US will drive future generic use
    - Medicare Part D is expected to lead to greater generic use
    - Patient power
    - Pharmaceutical re-importation issues continue to dog big pharma
    - Formularies promote quality, but restrict choice
    - Pricing and reimbursement issues
- Japan: market level assessment, opportunities and threats
  - Market level assessment
  - Opportunities
    - Ageing population
    - An underdeveloped generics market slows brand erosion
    - Possible introduction of direct-to-consumer advertising
  - Threats
    - Despite being underdeveloped, generics are expected to evolve into a significant player in the Japanese healthcare market in the future
    - Flat sum reimbursement
    - Complex regulatory process
    - Biannual price cuts still threaten market growth
    - New healthcare reforms under debate
- France: market level assessment, opportunities and threats
  - Market level assessment
  - Opportunities
    - Innovation encouraged in the pharmaceutical industry
    - Demographic changes provide opportunity for market expansion of chronic illnesses
  - Threats
    - Continuation of cost-control measures
    - Formulary access
    - Take off of generic sector
    - Limitations on prescriptions dispensed from hospitals to patients in the community
- Germany: opportunities and threats
  - Market level assessment
  - Opportunities
    - Pricing freedom which supports innovation
  - Threats
    - German healthcare reforms...again
    - Cost containment measures
- Italy: market level assessment, opportunities and threats
  - Market level assessment
  - Opportunities
    - Single agency holds regulatory authority
    - Negligible impact of generics is set to continue
  - Threats
    - Ongoing cost-containment measures
    - Stringent reference pricing system
- Spain: market level assessment, opportunities and threats
  - Market level assessment
  - Opportunities
    - Underdeveloped generics market both an opportunity and a threat
  - Threats
    - R&D activity expected to decline
    - Reference pricing systems (RPS) likely to have an impact on branded revenues
- UK: market level assessment, opportunities and threats
  - Market level assessment
  - Opportunities
    - NICE guidance advises against the use of beta-blockers
    - GMS contact improvements
  - Threats
    - Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme (PPRS) implements periodic price cuts
    - Cost containment measures encourage continued high use of generics
- Summary of environmental issues affecting antihypertensive market size
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST ANALYSIS
- Assumptions and events
  - Increasing market size
  - Increasing use of fixed-dose combinations
  - Major clinical trials
    - ONTARGET
    - DREAM
    - NAVIGATOR
    - TROPHY
    - Outcomes program for Rasilez: ALTITUDE, AVIATOR
  - New Product Launches
    - Rasilez (aliskiren) marketed by Novartis
    - Exforge (valsartan+ amlodipine) marketed by Novartis
  - Additional Indications
    - Irbesartan gains congestive heart failure indication
    - Valsartan gains additional diabetes indication
    - Diovan gains indications for post-MI use
    - Micardis (telmisartan) gains type 2 diabetic nephropathy indication
    - Candesartan gains diabetic retinopathy indication
  - Patent Expiries
    - ARB patent expiries
    - CCB patent expiries
    - Beta blocker patent expiries
    - ACE inhibitor patent expiries
    - Other patent expiries
- Data definitions, limitations and assumptions
  - Standard units
  - Japanese market data
  - Derivation of sales forecasts and pricing trends
- Forecasts
- Forecast methodology
CHAPTER 5 COMMERCIAL IMPACT AND LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDIES
- Introduction
- Case studies
  - Case Study 1: Novartis - future prospects
    - Executive summary
    - Cardio-metabolic franchise overview
    - Pipeline dynamics of the company
    - Overall pipeline
    - Rasilez
    - Exforge
    - Life Cycle Management Issues for Novartis.
    - Conclusion
  - Case study 2: The loss of patent protection for Cozaar (losartan) in the US market; potential impacts, likely scenarios.
    - Executive summary
    - Angiotensin Receptor Blockers (ARBs)
    - The US ARB market
    - The US ARB market dynamics
    - Patent expiries
CHAPTER 6 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND REFERENCES
- Bibliography
- References
APPENDIX A - MARKET DATA AND MAJOR BRAND FACTS
- Global antihypertensive market data
  - Segmentation by country
  - Segmentation by class
- Major brand facts
  - C7 BBs
  - C8 CCBs
  - C9 ACEs
  - C9 ARBs
- Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) classification
APPENDIX B - MARKET FORECAST DATA
- US Forecasts
- Japan Forecasts
- France Forecasts
- Germany Forecasts
- Italy Forecasts
- Spain Forecasts
- UK Forecasts
- Five Major European Markets Forecasts
- Seven Major Markets Forecasts
APPENDIX C
- Report methodology
- About Datamonitor
  - About Datamonitor Healthcare
  - About the cardiovascular disease analysis team
  - Key therapy team members
    - Dr Allison Fleetwood, Director, Cardiovascular, Diabetes and Women's Health
  - Disclaimer
- List of Tables
  - Table 1: 7MM sales of the antihypertensive drug classes, 2005
  - Table 2: Seven major market sales and market share of the 10 top-selling antihypertensives, 2005
  - Table 3: Prevalence of obesity in the seven major markets by age (000s), 2003 (all totals have been rounded where applicable)
  - Table 4: US antihypertensive sales, 2005
  - Table 5: Five generics companies are among the top 10 companies in terms of prescriptions filled under Medicare Part D
  - Table 6: The actual generic fill rate varies between therapeutic classes
  - Table 7: Japan antihypertensive sales, 2005
  - Table 8: An example of the savings to be realized by using generic drugs
  - Table 9: France antihypertensive sales, 2005
  - Table 10: Germany antihypertensive sales, 2005
  - Table 11: Italy antihypertensive market, 2005
  - Table 12: Spain antihypertensive market, 2005
  - Table 13: UK antihypertensive market, 2005
  - Table 14: The 10 clinical areas of the Quality Outcome Framework, as outlined in the GMS contract, 2005
  - Table 15: Summary of macro-environmental issues affecting the anthypertensive, 2006
  - Table 16: Patent expiry dates used in forecasting the antihypertensive market across the seven major markets
  - Table 17: Sales of selected Novartis marketed cardio-metabolic products, 2005
  - Table 18: Forecasts for Rasilez (aliskiren)
  - Table 19: Sales forecasts for Exforge (valsartan plus amlodipine)
  - Table 20: Kredex: key facts
  - Table 21: Toprol-XL: key facts
  - Table 22: Tenormin; key facts
  - Table 23: Inderal: key facts
  - Table 24: Norvasc: key facts
  - Table 25: Plendil: key facts
  - Table 26: Cardizem LA: key facts
  - Table 27: Adalat: key facts
  - Table 28: Altace: key facts
  - Table 29: Aceon: key facts
  - Table 30: Accupro: key facts
  - Table 31: Atacand; key facts
  - Table 32: Teveten: key facts
  - Table 33: Avapro: key facts
  - Table 34: Cozaar: key facts
  - Table 35: Benicar: key facts
  - Table 36: Micardis: key facts
  - Table 37: Diovan: key facts
  - Table 38: Antihypertensive classifications
  - Table 39: US antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  - Table 40: Japan antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  - Table 41: France antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  - Table 42: Germany antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  - Table 43: Italy antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  - Table 44: Spain antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  - Table 45: UK antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  - Table 46: Five major markets antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
  - Table 47: Seven major markets antihypertensive sales forecasts ($m; 2005 figures are actuals)
- List of Figures
  - Figure 1: Key milestones expected to have an impact on the 7MM antihypertensives market, 2007 - 2015
  - Figure 2: 7MM pharmaceutical sales, 2004-05
  - Figure 3: Comparative antihypertensive market share information for 7MM in terms of sales value and sales volume, split by country, 2005
  - Figure 4: Proportion of population aged 20-39 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
  - Figure 5: Proportion of population aged 40-59 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
  - Figure 6: Proportion of population aged 60-79 years, 2004 and 2015, and prevalence of hypertension in this age group in the seven major markets, 2004
  - Figure 7: The growing prevalence of obesity in the US
  - Figure 8: Generalized distribution chain for parallel traded pharmaceutical products
  - Figure 9: JNC6 and JNC7 compared: classification of blood pressure levels
  - Figure 10: Compelling indications for individual drug classes
  - Figure 11: More than half of all prescriptions dispensed in the US are generics
  - Figure 12: Generic companies dominate the US pharmaceutical market in terms of prescriptions
  - Figure 13: Generic use in the US is promoted through a number of channels
  - Figure 14: The generic fill rates in the US for 2003 varied considerably by state
  - Figure 15: The tiered co-payment system will lead to greater use of generics
  - Figure 16: Key pressures facing drug developers
  - Figure 17: The Japanese generic market is underdeveloped because of a number of factors
  - Figure 18: The oncology therapy area accounts for the highest share of 1,377 projects in clinical development, from 178 companies.
  - Figure 19: Novartis's investigational drugs by therapeutic category
  - Figure 20: Effects of patent expiry on Cozaar (losartan) in the US market
  - Figure 21: Datamonitor forecasts of the effects of Cozaar's patent expiry on Cozaar (losartan), Diovan (valsartan) and their respective generics, in the US market
  - Figure 22: Segmentation of the antihypertensives market by country
  - Figure 23: Segmentation of the antihypertensives market by class

Commercial Insight: Antihypertensives - New challenges for a maturing market

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