[Report] Market Competitive Intensity: Bulgaria TOC

CATALYST
SUMMARY
ANALYSIS
- Introduction: MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity
  - The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment
  - The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull.
  - The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse European gas and power markets
  - The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2006 and on 1st July 2008 in addition to driving a market switching forecast
  - Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details)
  - Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results
    - A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity
    - A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity
  - The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization
- Context: Both the Bulgarian gas and power markets show only minimal development over the forecast period
  - Bulgaria' s Customer Pull metrics show particular weakness both now and at the end of the forecast period
  - Bulgaria' s weak gas metrics create an MCI score very much at the lower end of the European scale
- Power MCI: Apart from the Effectiveness of Regulator metric, all of Bulgaria' s power metrics remain in the lower half of the scale
  - Aside from a relatively strong regulatory score, Bulgaria' s Market Framework metrics remain modest at the end of the forecast period
    - Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 5/10 2008: 6/10]
    - Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 3/10 2008: 3/10]
    - Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 2.5/10 2008: 3/10]
  - All of Bulgaria' s Market Framework metrics show little improvement both at the current time and in the near term future
    - Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 4/10 2008: 5/10]
    - Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 4/10 2008: 4/10]
    - Traded Market Maturity [2006: 0/10 2008: 0/10]
  - The relatively undeveloped nature of the market serves to constrain the Customer Pull metrics
    - Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 2/10 2008: 3/10]
    - Consumer Representation [2006: 1/10 2008: 2/10]
    - Propensity to Switch [2006: 1/10 2008: 3.5/10]
  - Bulgaria' s electricity switching rates will slightly exceed those seen in the gas market
- Gas MCI: All of Bulgaria' s gas metrics score at the lower end of the scale other than the Effectiveness of Regulator metric
  - Despite reasonable regulatory scores, Bulgaria' s Market Framework metrics are constrained by the TPA and balancing regimes
    - Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 5/10 2008: 6/10]
    - Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 1.5/10 2008: 2/10]
    - Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 1/10 2008: 1.5/10]
  - All of the Market Framework factors remain firmly at the bottom end of the scoring scale during the forecast period
    - Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 0/10 2008: 0/10]
    - Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 2/10 2008: 3/10]
    - Traded Market Maturity [2006: 0/10 2008: 1/10]
  - Customer Pull metrics remain modest both at the current time and at the end of the forecast period
    - Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 0/10 2008: 1/10]
    - Consumer Representation [2006: 2/10 2008: 2.5/10]
    - Propensity to Switch [2006: 1/10 2008: 2/10]
  - Switching levels in the Bulgarian energy market will remain modest in both sectors
- Outlook: Bulgaria' s lack of competitive intensity restricts commercial opportunities available to new entrants in the short to medium term
  - Competitive intensity in both the gas and power markets will remain modest and is unlikely to develop for some considerable time
    - Power scores
    - Gas scores
  - Commercial opportunities remain limited in the Bulgarian power market, though potentially exist in the generation sector
    - New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power
    - New Market Entrant Threats, Power
  - Commercial opportunities in the Bulgarian gas sector are limited, but potentially exist if wholesale gas supplies can be secured
    - New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas
    - New Market Entrant Threats, Gas
- MCI Scores
APPENDIX
- Definitions
- Ask the analyst
- List of Tables
  - Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria 2006-08
  - Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2006-2008
  - Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2006-2008
- List of Figures
  - Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale
  - Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework
  - Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage
  - Figure 4: MCI Scales
  - Figure 5: MCI Applications
  - Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
  - Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
  - Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria
  - Figure 9: Switching Forecasts, Bulgaria 2008 [Residential: 04% Non Residential:11%]
  - Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria
  - Figure 11: Switching Forecasts, Bulgaria 2008 [Residential: 03% Non Residential:08%]
  - Figure 12: Market Competitive Intensity, Bulgaria
  - Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator
  - Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access
  - Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer
  - Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
  - Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation
  - Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
  - Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
  - Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance
  - Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation
  - Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch

Market Competitive Intensity: Bulgaria

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