[Report] Market Competitive Intensity: Czech Republic TOC

CATALYST
SUMMARY
ANALYSIS
- Introduction: MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity
  - The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment
  - The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull.
  - The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse European gas and power markets
  - The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2006 and on 1st July 2008 in addition to driving a market switching forecast
  - Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details)
  - Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results
    - A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity
    - A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity
  - The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization
- Context: The Czech Republic' s leads the rest of Central and Eastern Europe in terms of gas and power market competitive intensity
  - The Czech Republic power score remains around the centre point of the sliding scale
  - In common with many other less competitive markets, the Czech gas score is impacted by the lack of a traded market
- Power MCI: Strong Market Framework serve to offset weakness in the Customer Pull metrics
  - Market Framework factors are unlikely to develop significantly by 2008
    - Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 7.5/10 2008: 8.5/10]
    - Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 8/10 2008: 9/10]
    - Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 7.5/10 2008: 8/10]
  - Supplier Push factors are curtailed by the lack of a traded market and the dominance of CEZ
    - Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 4.7/10 2008: 4.7/10]
    - Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 4.3/10 2008: 4.5/10]
    - Traded Market Maturity [2006: 3.5/10 2008: 5/10]
  - Customer Pull factors achieve only limited scores both now and in July 2008
    - Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 2.5/10 2008: 4.5/10]
    - Consumer Representation [2006: 2.5/10 2008: 4/10]
    - Propensity to Switch [2006: 1.5/10 2008: 3/10]
  - Switching rates will be limited in the residential sector by July 2008, though greater momentum will be seen in the non-residential sector
- Gas MCI: Strength on the Regulations and TPA metrics support the overall score and offset weakness in the lower scoring metrics
  - The development of liberalisation will drive all of the Market Framework scores higher by July 2008
    - Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 7.5/10 2008: 7.5/10]
    - Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 8/10 2008: 8.6/10]
    - Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 3.5/10 2008: 4.5/10]
  - Retail fragmentation is the highest current and future score of the Supplier Push factors
    - Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 2/10 2008: 2/10]
    - Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 2.3/10 2008: 2.5/10]
    - Traded Market Maturity [2006: 0/10 2008: 0/10]
  - Customer Pull factors all score at the lower end of the scale
    - Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 1.8/10 2008: 2.2/10]
    - Consumer Representation [2006: 3.5/10 2008: 4/10]
    - Propensity to Switch [2006: 1/10 2008: 1.3/10]
  - By July 2008 switching activity in the residential market will lag behind the non-residential market
- Outlook: Commercial opportunities in the power market are likely to be greater than those in the gas market in the coming years
  - Competitive intensity in the Czech power market will continue to lead that seen in the gas market
    - Power scores
    - Gas scores
  - New entrants to the Czech power markets will need to mitigate the threat posed by dominant players and low switching
    - New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power
    - New Market Entrant Threats, Power
  - Commercial opportunities in the Czech gas market appear to be very limited both now and by 2008
    - New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas
    - New Market Entrant Threats, Gas
- MCI Scores
APPENDIX
- Definitions
- Ask the analyst
- List of Tables
  - Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Czech Republic 2006-08
  - Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2006-2008
  - Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2006-2008
- List of Figures
  - Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale
  - Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework
  - Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage
  - Figure 4: MCI Scales
  - Figure 5: MCI Applications
  - Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
  - Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
  - Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Czech Republic
  - Figure 9: Switching Forecasts, Czech Republic 2008 [Residential: 07% Non Residential:16%]
  - Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Czech Republic
  - Figure 11: Switching Forecasts, Czech Republic 2008 [Residential: 05% Non Residential:07%]
  - Figure 12: Market Competitive Intensity, Czech Republic
  - Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator
  - Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access
  - Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer
  - Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
  - Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation
  - Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
  - Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
  - Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance
  - Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation
  - Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch

Market Competitive Intensity: Czech Republic

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