[Report] Market Competitive Intensity: Greece TOC

CATALYST
SUMMARY
ANALYSIS
- Introduction: MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity
  - The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment
  - The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull.
  - The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse European gas and power markets
  - The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2006 and on 1st July 2008 in addition to driving a market switching forecast
  - Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details)
  - Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results
    - A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity
    - A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity
  - The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization
- Context: The immaturity of its energy sector puts Greece very much at the lower end of the gas and power competitive intensity scales
  - Greece' s power market remains very much at the bottom end of the competitive intensity scale both during and after the forecast period
  - Greece' s gas market remains low down on the competitive intensity scale, despite continued rapid demand growth
- Power MCI: Greece' s Market Framework factors are the only area of discernible strength in the overall power score
  - Development of the Market Framework factors will be limited between now and 2008
    - Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 5.3/10 2008: 8/10]
    - Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 3.5/10 2008: 6.8/10]
    - Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 1.3/10 2008: 3/10]
  - The former monopoly position of the PPC serves to significantly constrain the Supplier Push metrics both now and in 2008
    - Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 0/10 2008: 1.2/10]
    - Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 0.3/10 2008: 1/10]
    - Traded Market Maturity [2006: 0/10 2008: 0/10]
  - Greece' s Customer Pull metrics will continue to be held back by the lack of new market entrants and the dominance of the PPC
    - Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 1.7/10 2008: 2.2/10]
    - Consumer Representation [2006: 2/10 2008: 2.3/10]
    - Propensity to Switch [2006: 1/10 2008: 1.3/10]
  - Greece' s forecast switching rates are the lowest of the markets surveyed
- Gas MCI: In common with the power market, the Market Framework factors are the only element supporting the Greek gas score
  - The end of Greece' s gas market derogation in November 2006 will help increase the 2008 Market Framework scores
    - Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 4/10 2008: 6/10]
    - Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 1.2/10 2008: 4.7/10]
    - Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 3.2/10 2008: 4.8/10]
  - All of the Supplier Push metrics will remain extremely low at the end of the forecast period
    - Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 1/10 2008: 1.5/10]
    - Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 1.5/10 2008: 2/10]
    - Traded Market Maturity [2006: 0/10 2008: 0/10]
  - Customer Pull metrics are all redundant given current market structure and will only increase marginally by 2008
    - Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 1.5/10 2008: 1.8/10]
    - Consumer Representation [2006: 1.8/10 2008: 2/10]
    - Propensity to Switch [2006: 0.9/10 2008: 1.5/10]
  - The undeveloped nature of the Greek gas market and the dearth of new entrants will serve to keep switching levels very low
- Outlook: Limited competitive intensity in the Greek energy markets create significant opportunities for those seeking early mover advantage
  - Despite the progress that will be made in various metrics, both the gas and power metrics remain at zero in 2008
    - Power scores
    - Gas scores
  - The ongoing dominance of PPC will continue to restrain commercial opportunities for new players in the Greek power market
    - New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power
    - New Market Entrant Threats, Power
  - Strong demand growth and significant future gasification prospects create opportunities in the Greek gas market if structural risks can be mitigated
    - New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas
    - New Market Entrant Threats, Gas
- MCI Scores
APPENDIX
- Definitions
- Ask the analyst
- List of Tables
  - Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Greece 2006-08
  - Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2006-2008
  - Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2006-2008
- List of Figures
  - Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale
  - Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework
  - Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage
  - Figure 4: MCI Scales
  - Figure 5: MCI Applications
  - Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
  - Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
  - Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Greece
  - Figure 9: Switching Forecasts, Greece 2008 [Residential: 03% Non Residential:06%]
  - Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Greece
  - Figure 11: Switching Forecasts, Greece 2008 [Residential: 04% Non Residential:06%]
  - Figure 12: Market Competitive Intensity, Greece
  - Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator
  - Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access
  - Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer
  - Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
  - Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation
  - Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
  - Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
  - Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance
  - Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation
  - Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch

Market Competitive Intensity: Greece

Table of Contents