[Report] Market Competitive Intensity: Poland TOC

CATALYST
SUMMARY
ANALYSIS
- Introduction: MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity
  - The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment
  - The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull.
  - The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse European gas and power markets
  - The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2006 and on 1st July 2008 in addition to driving a market switching forecast
  - Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details)
  - Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results
    - A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity
    - A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity
  - The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization
- Context: Poland' s gas and power position remains clustered with the least competitive markets surveyed
  - Despite a 1.4 point increase over the period, Poland remains unchanged in the rankings
  - The increase in Poland' s score over the period pushes it up one place in the rankings
- Power MCI: Aside from the Retail Fragmentation metric, Poland' s power scores remain weak
  - Market Framework scores will remain modest in 2008
    - Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 3/10 2008: 5/10]
    - Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 3.3/10 2008: 5/10]
    - Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 2/10 2008: 5/10]
  - Low levels of retail and wholesale fragmentation drive the Supplier Push metric both currently and in July 2008
    - Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 4.5/10 2008: 5.5/10]
    - Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 9/10 2008: 9/10]
    - Traded Market Maturity [2006: 2.3/10 2008: 4/10]
  - Customer Pull metrics are very much at the lower end of the scale and are likely to remain so in July 2008
    - Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 3/10 2008: 4/10]
    - Consumer Representation [2006: 2/10 2008: 3/10]
    - Propensity to Switch [2006: 2/10 2008: 3.5/10]
  - Residential switching is likely to remain at modest levels, though non-residential rates are likely to grow more rapidly
- Gas MCI: Poland' s Customer Pull metrics impact the overall low score
  - None of the Market Framework metrics increase their scores significantly between now and 2008
    - Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 3/10 2008: 4/10]
    - Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 2/10 2008: 3/10]
    - Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 5/10 2008: 5.5/10]
  - A lack of access to wholesale gas supplies constrains Poland' s Supplier Push scores
    - Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 1.5/10 2008: 2/10]
    - Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 4.5/10 2008: 5.5/10]
    - Traded Market Maturity [2006: 0/10 2008: 1/10]
  - Customer Pull metrics will remain at the lower end of the scale by 2008
    - Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 0.5/10 2008: 1/10]
    - Consumer Representation [2006: 1.5/10 2008: 2.5/10]
    - Propensity to Switch [2006: 1/10 2008: 2/10]
  - The role played by the top three players in the market will begin to diminish by the end of the forecast period and as such will drive switching rates
- Outlook: Opportunities in the Polish gas market lag those potentially available in the power market
  - There is a wide degree of diversity between the levels of competitive intensity in the Polish gas and power markets
    - Power scores
    - Gas scores
  - Growing environmental pressures are creating strong commercial opportunities for generators
    - New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power
    - New Market Entrant Threats, Power
  - The difficulties associated with obtaining gas are just one of the many reasons why the Polish gas market is an unattractive option for new entrants
    - New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas
    - New Market Entrant Threats, Gas
- MCI Scores
APPENDIX
- Definitions
- Ask the analyst
- List of Tables
  - Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 2006-08
  - Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2006-2008
  - Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2006-2008
- List of Figures
  - Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale
  - Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework
  - Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage
  - Figure 4: MCI Scales
  - Figure 5: MCI Applications
  - Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
  - Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
  - Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Poland
  - Figure 9: Switching Forecasts, Poland 2008 [Residential: 11% Non Residential:28%]
  - Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Poland
  - Figure 11: Switching Forecasts, Poland 2008 [Residential: 07% Non Residential:15%]
  - Figure 12: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland
  - Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator
  - Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access
  - Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer
  - Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
  - Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation
  - Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
  - Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
  - Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance
  - Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation
  - Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch

Market Competitive Intensity: Poland

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