Market Competitive Intensity: Slovenia

Table of Contents

• CATALYST
• SUMMARY
• ANALYSIS
  • Introduction: MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity
    • The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment
    • The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull.
    • The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse European gas and power markets
    • The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2006 and on 1st July 2008 in addition to driving a market switching forecast
    • Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details)
    • Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results
      • A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity
      • A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity
    • The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization
  • Context: Slovenia' s power market leads its gas counterpart in terms of competitive intensity
    • Although low, Slovenia' s power market competitive intensity is ahead of that seen in other more developed Central and Eastern European economies
    • With only a small increase in the metrics, gas market competitive intensity in Slovenia remains modest
  • Power MCI: Slovenia' s power score benefits from relatively strong Market Framework factors
    • Slovenia' s Market Framework metrics remain fixed around the middle of the scoring scale
      • Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 5/10 2008: 7.3/10]
      • Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 7.6/10 2008: 8.4/10]
      • Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 5.5/10 2008: 6/10]
    • Slovenia' s Supplier Push metrics will remain modest in the near term future
      • Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 2.8/10 2008: 3.5/10]
      • Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 6/10 2008: 6.4/10]
      • Traded Market Maturity [2006: 2.2/10 2008: 3.2/10]
    • Little development in the Customer Pull metrics is discernable by 2008
      • Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 4.8/10 2008: 5.5/10]
      • Consumer Representation [2006: 3/10 2008: 4/10]
      • Propensity to Switch [2006: 2.2/10 2008: 3.5/10]
    • Electricity switching rates in Slovenia show little improvement in either sector in the coming years
  • Gas MCI: Slovenia' s gas score is largely driven by the Market Framework factors metric
    • Slovenia' s Market Framework scores are surprisingly high given the limited size of its gas market
      • Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 7.3/10 2008: 7.6/10]
      • Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 5.5/10 2008: 6/10]
      • Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 4.5/10 2008: 5/10]
    • Slovenia' s Supplier Push metrics do not show any meaningful degree of development over the forecast period
      • Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 0/10 2008: 0.8/10]
      • Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 1/10 2008: 1.5/10]
      • Traded Market Maturity [2006: 0/10 2008: 0.5/10]
    • All of the Customer Pull metrics remain at the bottom end of the scale during the forecast period
      • Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 1/10 2008: 1.5/10]
      • Consumer Representation [2006: 2/10 2008: 2.5/10]
      • Propensity to Switch [2006: 2.5/10 2008: 3/10]
    • Switching rates in both sectors will remain modest as a result of currently prevailing market dynamics and the ownership of Geoplin
  • Outlook: The dominance of Geoplin mean than greater commercial opportunities exist in the Slovenian power sector than in the gas sector
    • Slovenia' s overall gas scores remain significantly lower than that seen in the electricity market
      • Power scores
      • Gas scores
    • Low switching rates and weak Customer Pull metrics limit opportunities in the Slovenian power market in the near term future
      • New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power
      • New Market Entrant Threats, Power
    • Despite strong demand growth potential, Slovenia' s gas market opportunities remain modest owing to structural factors
      • New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas
      • New Market Entrant Threats, Gas
  • MCI Scores
• APPENDIX
  • Definitions
  • Ask the analyst
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Slovenia 2006-08
    • Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2006-2008
    • Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2006-2008
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale
    • Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework
    • Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage
    • Figure 4: MCI Scales
    • Figure 5: MCI Applications
    • Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
    • Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08
    • Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Slovenia
    • Figure 9: Switching Forecasts, Slovenia 2008 [Residential: 05% Non Residential:14%]
    • Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Slovenia
    • Figure 11: Switching Forecasts, Slovenia 2008 [Residential: 06% Non Residential:12%]
    • Figure 12: Market Competitive Intensity, Slovenia
    • Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator
    • Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access
    • Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer
    • Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation
    • Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation
    • Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
    • Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity
    • Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance
    • Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation
    • Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch