Mapping Trends across UK National Mortgage Markets

Table of Contents

• CATALYST
• SUMMARY
• ANALYSIS
  • While national UK mortgage markets are similar, they do bear noticeable and important differences
  • House price inflation in all four countries has continued to rise above expectations, but some more than others
    • UK house price growth was unexpectedly strong in 2006
    • Northern Ireland' s house prices have seen the greatest growth of all over the last few years
    • House prices in Scotland are also continuing to rise at a fast rate
    • In the meantime, house prices in England and Wales have now slowed
  • As a result, lack of affordability has become an overarching issue in the majority of the constituent countries
    • A lack of affordability has become a problem in most national markets
    • Consequently, first time buyers in particular have been affected across all markets
      • First time buyers in Northern Ireland are having an increasingly difficult time
      • Those in England, Wales and Scotland continue to struggle
      • The lack of first time buyers is a drawback for the UK housing market, the economy and lenders
    • Moreover, the lack of affordability will remain a long-term issue as Datamonitor forecasts all national house prices to continue upwards over the next five years
  • Yet government initiatives to combat the lack of affordability do differ on a national basis
    • England and Wales have a substantial number of initiatives on offer
      • Indeed, shared equity mortgages are an innovative and big step ahead for FTBs and lenders
    • Scotland also has a number of government initiatives
    • Northern Ireland does not have as many initiatives on offer
  • In the meantime, competition among lenders is generally quite similar, but there are small differences across countries
    • Those lenders that dominate the UK mortgage market also dominate the English and Welsh markets
    • In Scotland, Scottish lenders have a greater presence than the rest of the UK
    • Northern Ireland still has the fewest active lenders in the UK
    • In the future, competition in national markets could be skewed further by the integration of European mortgage markets
• APPENDIX
  • Supplementary data
  • Definitions
    • Balances outstanding
    • Buy-to-let
    • CAGR
    • Non-standard
    • Right to Buy
    • Shared ownership
  • Methodology
  • Forecasting methodology
  • Further reading
    • European mortgage reports
    • UK mortgage reports
    • UK mortgage briefings
    • Forthcoming mortgage reports
    • Forthcoming mortgage briefings
    • UK Mortgage Market Map 2006
      • Key Features
      • For further information
  • Relevant links
  • Ask the analyst
  • Datamonitor consulting
  • Disclaimer
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Tenure of dwellings, by percentage of stock, 2004 and 2005
    • Table 2: Top five mortgage lenders by balances outstanding in the UK, 2005
    • Table 3: Indexed house prices by UK national market, Q4 2002-Q4 2006
    • Table 4: House price to income ratio by UK national market, Q3 1997-Q2 2004 (Table 1 of 2)
    • Table 5: House price to income ratio by UK national market, Q3 2004-Q3 2006 (Table 2 of 2)
    • Table 6: Percentage of mortgages to first time buyers, 1996-2005
    • Table 7: Annual house price growth forecasts for Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, 2006-2011f
    • Table 8: Annual house price growth forecasts for England, 2006-2011f
    • Table 9: Sources of information for Datamonitor' s UK national house price forecasts
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Northern Ireland and Scotland have continued to see particularly strong growth, Q4 2002 - Q4 2006
    • Figure 2: House prices have become less affordable, most recently in Northern Ireland and Wales, Q3 1997 - Q3 2006
    • Figure 3: First time buyers in Northern Ireland in particular are finding it increasingly difficult to purchase a property, 1996-2005
    • Figure 4: House price growth in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland over the next five years will not particularly alleviate the lack of affordability, 2006-2011f
    • Figure 5: House prices in England over the next five years will not lessen the lack of affordability by much at all, 2006-2011f
    • Figure 6: The UK Mortgage Market Map 2006 covers a wide range of mortgage sectors
    • Figure 7: Taxonomy of UK Mortgage Market Map 2006