Analysis of the Pharmaceutical Market to 2012 - Segmented by Drug Target Family

Table of Contents

• About the PharmaVitae team
• CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Key findings
  • Introduction to the PharmaVitae universe
  • The outlook for the market is challenging
    • Market performance is shaped by key ATC classes
  • The three fundamental dimensions of pharma space
    • Dimension one: molecule type analysis
      • MAbs and therapeutic proteins to provide the greatest overall sales growth
      • Generic erosion wipes out small molecule drug sales
      • mAbs driven by ' core' sales
    • Dimension two: therapy area analysis
      • Oncology and AIID products drive growth across 2006-12
      • GI and CV particularly badly hit in 2012
    • Targets provide a missing link between drugs and disease
      • Target classification
    • Dimension three: target family analysis
      • ECS target family set for superior performance
      • Only the ECS target family will see growth between 2011-12 (the ' patent cliff' )
  • Position within the three fundamental dimensions of pharma space influences commercial outlook
    • Introduction
    • Novel targets offer reduced competitive pressures
      • Superior commercial outlook with increasing target novelty
      • New technologies allow expansion into novel target space
      • Market growth driven by biologics acting on ECS targets
    • Biologics offer insulation from generic erosion
      • ECS shielded from generics
      • Lifecycle stage dictates performance of small molecule drugs
    • Areas of high unmet need facilitate commercial success
      • Biologics more warranted in areas of high unmet need
      • Certain areas already saturated by cheap options
  • Perfomance relates to the balance of key characteristics
    • Commercial attractiveness characteristics
    • Not all volumes of pharma space are biologically viable
      • Mechanism of disease dictates the pharmacologically useful targets
      • Small molecule drugs cannot modulate ECS targets
      • Biologics cannot access the targets relating to certain diseases
    • ATC performance is driven by key characteristics
      • Segment 1: High growth biologics
      • Segment 2: Declining small molecule drugs
      • Segment 3: High growth small molecule drugs
  • Considerations beyond 2012
    • The need for new technologies
    • DNA/RNA therapies hit the central dogma of biology
    • Gene therapy
    • RNA therapies
• CHAPTER 2 MARKET ANALYSIS
  • Key findings
  • Introduction
  • Total market overview
    • Growth drivers and resistors
      • Top 25 growth drivers across 2006-12
      • Top 25 growth resistors across 2006-12
      • Top 25 growth drivers 2012
      • Top 25 growth resistors 2012
  • Molecule type analysis
    • Small molecule drugs account for the bulk of sales
      • Generic substitution is greater where more generic alternatives are available
      • Products satisfying high unmet needs are more likely to gain market share
    • Biologic products will make a greater contribution to growth
  • Therapy area analysis
    • Therapy area growth drivers and resistors
      • Oncology and AIID drive growth
      • CV and GI set to decline overall
    • 2006-11 performance
    • 2012 performance
  • LCE profile
• CHAPTER 3 TARGET FAMILY CLASSIFICATION
  • Key findings
  • Introduction
    • Targets are a key dimension of pharma space
    • The druggable genome
      • Druggability by small molecules-the Rule of Five.
  • Target family classification
  • GPCR target family
    • Introduction
    • Structure and function
    • Subfamilies
  • Ion channel target family
    • Introduction
    • Structure and function
    • Subfamilies
  • Nuclear receptor target family
    • Introduction
    • Structure and function
    • Subfamilies
  • Enzyme target family
    • Introduction
    • Structure and function
    • Subfamilies
  • Extracellular signaling (ECS) target family
    • Introduction
    • Structure and function
    • Subfamilies
  • Non-human
  • Other
  • Mixed
  • Unclassified
• CHAPTER 4 MARKET ANALYSIS BY TARGET FAMILY
  • Key findings
  • Overview
    • Target family performance
    • ECS target family driving overall market growth
    • Enzyme and GPCR target families take the greatest hit in 2012
  • Therapy area analysis: satisfaction of unmet needs drives success
    • GPCR targets take the largest share of the CV and CNS sales
      • CV therapy area set for ' boom and bust'
      • Without target innovation, CNS products struggle to offset expiries
    • ECS targets drive growth of the oncology and AIID therapy areas
    • Falling sales of enzyme modulators bring down GI
  • Molecule type analysis
    • Monoclonal antibody (mAb) sales are driven by ECS targets
    • Therapeutic protein analysis
    • Small molecule drugs are highly susceptible to generic erosion
    • Vaccine sales are entirely derived from non-human targets
  • LCE analysis
    • Launch
    • Core
    • Expiry
• CHAPTER 5 NUCLEAR RECEPTOR AND ION CHANNEL TARGET FAMILIES
  • Key findings
  • Overview: nuclear receptor and ion channel target families
    • Contribution to total market sales is set to diminish further
      • Ranked amongst the smallest target families by sales
      • Forecast to experience the fastest rate of decline
    • Scope for expansion is restricted
      • Small number of possible nuclear receptor target types
      • Nuclear receptors are not readily targeted by biologics
      • Ion channels offer significant potential, but are limited by their high association with CNS disorders
  • Therapy area analysis: key areas dictate overall performance
    • Diabetes & endocrinology pulls down nuclear receptor-related sales
      • Diabetes sales are pulled down by genericization of just one target type
    • Women' s health products generate growth for the nuclear receptor target family
      • Growth despite limited target innovation
      • Tougher times ahead?
    • CNS pulls down ion channels
      • CNS is the largest ion channel therapy area by sales
      • New launches are not sufficient to overcome the decline of older products
      • Competition high due to lack of target innovation
    • Products not revolutionizing the satisfaction of unmet needs
  • Molecule type analysis: exclusively small molecule
  • LCE analysis: expiries drag sales into decline
• CHAPTER 6 EXTRACELLULAR SIGNALLING PROTEIN (ECS) TARGET FAMILY
  • Key findings
  • Overview: ECS target family
    • Fastest rate of growth over 2006-12
    • Only target family to see growth in 2012
  • Therapy area analysis: driving growth of AIID & oncology
    • AIID sales growth is entirely reliant on ECS targets
      • Sales are largely derived from products acting on TNF-α
      • Novel targets generate growth as anti-TNF market slows
    • Novel ECS targets drive oncology growth
      • Success drawn from ' locking competitors out' of key targets
  • Molecule type analysis: new technologies opened up ECS targets
    • MAb technology has allowed novel ECS targets to be exploited
    • Unique position compared to other target families
    • Potential small molecule threat?
  • LCE analyis: growth across all LCE components
    • Expansion through novel targets
    • Free from declining ' expiry' sales
• CHAPTER 7 ENZYME AND GPCR TARGET FAMILIES
  • Key findings
  • Overview: enzyme and GPCR target families
    • The largest target families by sales
    • Forecast to see the greatest decline over 2011-12
  • Therapy area analysis: novel targets drive growth
    • Enzyme sales growth wiped out by declining therapy areas.
    • Novel targets drive oncology sales and the enzyme target family
      • Transferase targets drive oncology therapy area growth
      • Tyrosine kinase inhibitors exemplify novel target value
      • Tyrosine kinase inhibitors account for the bulk of enzyme target family gains
    • GI and CV sales hit by loss of patents on key classes
      • Heavily reliant on ageing PPIs, GI sales are set decline
      • HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors erode enzyme target family growth
    • GPCR sales growth across all therapy areas but eroded in 2012
      • Angiotensin II receptor antagonists drive CV growth but hit by genericization
      • New CNS launches do little to replace the loss of ' blockbusters'
      • Diabetes sales driven by novel targets
  • Molecule type analysis: almost entirely small molecule
  • LCE analysis: expiries offset growth
    • Significant ' launch' gains driven by availability of novel targets
    • Massive ' expiry' loss in 2012
• CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX
  • Target sub-sub-families
    • GPCR sub-sub-families
    • Nuclear receptor sub-sub-families
    • Enzyme sub-sub-families
  • Details of mixed and unclassified
  • Avandia
  • References
    • Journals
    • Websites
  • Abbreviations
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: PharmaVitae company coverage by peer set
    • Table 2: Target family classification
    • Table 3: Datamonitor' s commercial attractiveness characteristics
    • Table 4: Top 25 growth drivers, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Table 5: Top 25 growth resistors, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Table 6: Top 25 growth drivers, 2011-12 ($m)
    • Table 7: Top 25 growth resistors, 2011-12 ($m)
    • Table 8: Target family classification
    • Table 9: GPCR subfamilies
    • Table 10: Ion channel subfamilies
    • Table 11: Nuclear receptor subfamilies
    • Table 12: Enzyme superfamilies
    • Table 13: ECS subfamily classification
    • Table 14: GPCR sub-sub-families
    • Table 15: Nuclear receptor sub-sub-families
    • Table 16: Enzyme sub-sub-families
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Pharmaceutical market performance, sales ($m) and year-on-year growth (%), 2006-12
    • Figure 2: Top 10 growth driver/resistor ATC classes
    • Figure 3: Change in total market sales by molecule type, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 4: Molecule type sales growth by LCE stage, 2006-12 (%)
    • Figure 5: Change in total market sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 6: Dynamics of key therapy area sales, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 7: Three dimensions of pharma space
    • Figure 8: Change in total market sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 9: Target family growth rates, 2006-12 (CAGR %)
    • Figure 10: Change in total market sales by target family, 20011-12 ($m)
    • Figure 11: Technological advances expand the ' druggable' space
    • Figure 12: Molecule type sales by target family, 2006 (%)
    • Figure 13: Change in year-on-year sales by LCE stage, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 14: Therapy area sales by target family, 2006 ($m)
    • Figure 15: Key characteristics influencing commercial attractiveness
    • Figure 16: Factors limiting the exploitable pharma space
    • Figure 17: Key ATC class outlook and position against commercial attractiveness characteristics, change in sales 2006-12
    • Figure 18: Key market segments, 2006-12
    • Figure 19: The central dogma of biology and potential role of DNA/RNA therapies in relation to traditional ' drugging' approaches
    • Figure 20: Gene ' silencing' by short interefering RNA (siRNA)
    • Figure 21: Report structure
    • Figure 22: Total market sales, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 23: Total market sales by molecule type, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 24: Substitution of branded small molecule drugs for generics
    • Figure 25: Change in total market sales by molecule type, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 26: Total market sales by therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 27: Change in total market sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 28: Change in total market sales by therapy area, 2006-11 ($m)
    • Figure 29: Change in total market sales by therapy area, 2011-12 ($m)
    • Figure 30: Change in total market sales by LCE stage, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 31: Change in year-on-year sales by LCE stage, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 32: The role of drug targets in disease treatment
    • Figure 33: The commercially useful subset of the human genome
    • Figure 34: GPCRs structure
    • Figure 35: Functional architecture of an ion channel
    • Figure 36: Structural organization of nuclear receptors
    • Figure 37: Epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) structure
    • Figure 38: Total market sales by target family, 2006 ($m)
    • Figure 39: Target family sales CAGR, 2006-12 (%)
    • Figure 40: Total market sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 41: Total market sales by target family, 2011-12 ($m)
    • Figure 42: Year-on-year change in target family sales, weighted as a proportion of change in total sales, 2004-12 (%)
    • Figure 43: CV therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 44: CNS therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 45: Oncology therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 46: AIID therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 47: GI therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 48: Monoclonal antibody sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 49: Therapeutic protein sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 50: Therapeutic protein sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 51: Small molecule drug sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 52: Small molecule drug sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 53: Vaccine sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 54: 2003-12 ' launch' portfolio sales by target family ($m)
    • Figure 55: 2006-12 ' launch' portfolio sales by target family ($m)
    • Figure 56: 2003-12 ' core' portfolio sales by target family ($m))
    • Figure 57: 2006-12 ' core' portfolio sales by target family ($m)
    • Figure 58: 2003-12 ' expiry' portfolio sales by target family ($m)
    • Figure 59: 2003-12 ' expiry' portfolio sales by target family ($m)
    • Figure 60: Nuclear receptor and ion channel target family characteristics
    • Figure 61: Total market sales by target family, 2006 ($m)
    • Figure 62: Target family 2006-12 CAGR (%)
    • Figure 63: Nuclear receptor target sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 64: Sales of diabetes & endocrinology products that act on nuclear receptor or ion channel targets, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 65: Sales of women' s health products targeting nuclear receptors, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 66: Ion channel sales by therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 67: Ion channel sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 68: Sales of CNS therapy area products acting on ion channel targets, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 69: Combined nuclear receptor & ion channel sales by molecule type, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 70: Nuclear receptor & ion channel LCE profile, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 71: Nuclear receptor & ion channel progressive LCE profile ($m)
    • Figure 72: ECS target family characteristics
    • Figure 73: Total market sales by target family, 2006 ($m)
    • Figure 74: Target family 2006-12 CAGR (%)
    • Figure 75: Total market sales by target family, 2011-12 ($m)
    • Figure 76: ECS target sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 77: ECS target sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 78: AIID therapy area sales by target family, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 79: AIID therapy area sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 80: AIID therapy area sales from products acting on ECS targets, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 81: Oncology therapy area sales by target type, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 82: ECS targets in the oncology therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 83: ECS target family sales by molecule type, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 84: ECS target family sales by molecule type, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 85: Proportion of target family sales by molecule type, 2006 (%)
    • Figure 86: ECS target family LCE profile, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 87: Enzyme and GPCR target family characteristics
    • Figure 88: Total market sales by target family, 2006 ($m)
    • Figure 89: Target family 2006-12 CAGR (%)
    • Figure 90: Total market sales by target family, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 91: Total market sales by target family, 2011-12 ($m)
    • Figure 92: Enzyme target family sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 93: Enzyme-targeting product sales by therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 94: Sales of oncology products by enzyme subfamily, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 95: Total enzyme target family sales by subfamily, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 96: GI product sales from enzyme targets, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 97: CV product sales from oxidoreductase targets, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 98: GPCR-targeting product sales by therapy area, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 99: GPCR target family sales by therapy area, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 100: Enzyme and GPCR target family sales by molecule type, 2003-12 ($m)
    • Figure 101: Enzyme & GPCR target family LCE profile, 2006-12 ($m)
    • Figure 102: 2006-12 ' launch' portfolio sales by target family ($m)
    • Figure 103: Enzyme & GPCR target family progressive LCE profile ($m)
    • Figure 104: Target family sales growth rates including ' mixed' components, CAGR 2006-12 (%)