[Report] UK Personal General Insurance Market Research, Trends, Analysis TOC

Overview
- Catalyst
- Summary
Executive Summary
- Total general insurance GWP declined in 2006
  - The motor insurance market recorded its fourth consecutive year of decline
  - Property insurance GWP rose very slightly in 2006
  - General liability recorded a significant fall in GWP
  - Accident and health was the only business line to record strong growth
  - Pecuniary loss GWP fell by 3.2%
- Distribution of personal lines insurance shifted towards partnerships with banks and brands in 2006
  - The partnership channel gained market share from brokers in the motor insurance market in 2006
    - Aggregators have become important to motor insurance distribution
  - Banks and building societies regained market share in the distribution of household insurance in 2006
- The top 10 UK personal lines insurers showed mixed results in performance in 2006
  - Norwich Union' s personal lines book contracted slightly during 2006
  - Direct Line was the only personal lines RBSI subsidiary to achieve growth in 2006
    - Direct Line saw its personal lines book increase by 0.9% in 2006
- GWP growth in the private motor market is forecast to improve between 2007-12, however the best performing lines will be household insurance and pecuniary loss
  - The personal general insurance market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.8% between 2007 and 2012
  - The household and pecuniary loss markets will record strong growth between 2007 and 2012
  - Growth in the private motor market will improve, however it will remain relatively low while individual accident and health GWP growth rates slow
Table of Contents
Table of figures
Table of tables
Market context
- Introduction
- Total general insurance GWP declined in 2006
  - The motor insurance market recorded its fourth consecutive year of decline
  - Property insurance GWP rose very slightly in 2006
  - General liability recorded a significant fall in GWP
  - Accident and health was the only business line to record strong growth
  - Pecuniary loss GWP fell by 3.2%
  - The individual accident and health and household insurance markets grew in 2006
  - The total general insurance market moved further into profit in 2006
- The accident and health market performed well in 2006, with growth in GWP and strong growth in underwriting profit
  - Individual and group accident and health GWP grew in 2006
  - During 2006, individual health GWP growth slowed and premium income fell in the individual accident sector
    - The group health sector recorded GWP growth of 3.2% in 2006
  - The accident and health market witnessed underwriting profits grow substantially in 2006
- The UK motor insurance market continued to contract in 2006 with underwriting losses in the private motor market deteriorating
  - Both private and commercial motor markets contributed to the decline in motor premium income in 2006
  - Comprehensive private motor premium led the deterioration in private motor insurance premium income
  - Underwriting losses grew in the motor market in 2006 as private motor losses exceeded profits in the commercial motor market
  - Total underwriting loss in the private motor market reached £448m in 2006
- Total pecuniary loss GWP fell in 2006 with decreases in the personal and commercial sector, however underwriting profits increased
  - The pecuniary loss market declined by an estimated 3.2% in 2006
  - Pecuniary loss continues to be a profitable line of business, with profits increasing to £691m in 2006
- Household GWP increase in 2006 yet underwriting profits fell as claims costs increased
  - Household insurance GWP increased in 2006, while commercial property GWP fell
  - Property underwriting profits continued to decline during 2006 but the market remains profitable
  - Household underwriting profits decreased significantly in 2006 as total outgoings rose
Customer focus
- Introduction
- Distribution of personal lines insurance shifted towards partnerships with banks and brands in 2006
  - The partnership channel gained market share from brokers in the motor insurance market in 2006
    - Aggregators have become important to motor insurance distribution
  - Banks and building societies regained market share in the distribution of household insurance in 2006
    - Aggregators have increased in importance as a means for distributing household insurance
- The amount of household and motor insurance distributed online grew in 2007
  - The telephone remained the largest platform for arranging a motor policy in 2007 but the internet platform is growing fast
    - The telephone and face-to-face platforms have been declining steadily
    - More consumers are turning to the internet to arrange their motor policies
  - Face-to-face arrangements of household insurance policies continue to decline in favor of phone and internet
    - Face-to-face distribution of household insurance has been declining for several years
    - The number of consumers arranging household insurance online or over the telephone grew in 2007
- Increases in marketing budgets were rare among the top 10 advertisers in 2006
  - The top 10 advertisers reduced their spending by £28m in 2006
  - In defiance of the market trend in 2006, three of the largest insurance advertisers increased spending
    - RIAS joined the top 10 in 2006 by increasing its advertising spend by 36.9%
    - Both RBS subsidiaries in the top 10 increased advertising spending in 2006
  - The majority of general insurance advertisers scaled back their advertising spending in 2006
    - BUPA, the AA, Lloyds TSB and Saga also scaled back advertising in 2006, though by smaller amounts
  - Direct Line and Churchill are the most widely recognized household and motor insurance providers in 2007
Competitive dynamics
- Introduction
- 2007 saw a number of mergers and acquisitions and job losses
  - AXA acquired Swiftcover in February 2007
  - Norwich Union and HSBC announced plans to create a joint venture in May 2007
  - Kwik-Fit launched The Green Insurance Company in August 2007
  - Groupama acquired a majority stake in Lark Group in August 2007
  - HBOS decided to merge Esure and First Alternative' s motor businesses in August 2007
  - Tesco launched its own price comparison website in September 2007
  - The AA and Saga merged in 2007
  - Equity Insurance Group recorded a high number of small-scale acquisitions
  - A number of insurers announced job cuts in 2007 to make cost savings
- The top 10 UK personal lines insurers showed mixed results in performance in 2006
  - Norwich Union' s personal lines book contracted slightly during 2006
  - Direct Line was the only personal lines RBSI subsidiary to achieve growth in 2006
    - Direct Line saw its personal lines book increase by 0.9% in 2006
    - UKI saw GWP for its personal lines business fall by 1.3% in 2006
    - Churchill saw the largest decrease in personal lines GWP of all the RBSI subsidiaries
  - AXA recorded strong growth across all its personal lines businesses in 2006
  - Royal & SunAlliance' s private motor book grew in 2006, but other personal lines did not fare well
  - St Andrews' s personal lines business grew as it recorded a large increase in household GWP in 2006
  - Zurich recorded GWP decline in all of its personal lines during 2006
  - BUPA witnessed a decline in its personal lines business during 2006
  - Fortis recorded strong GWP growth in the UK personal lines insurance market in 2006
  - Several of the leading UK personal insurers did not underwrite any commercial business in 2006
- The profitability of the top 10 accident and health insurers deteriorated in 2006 due to increases in loss ratios
  - The top 10 accident and health insurers recorded an average loss ratio of 63.7% in 2006, with the majority seeing an increase in their loss ratio
    - The average loss ratio of 63.7% in 2006 was a 3.5 percentage point increase from 2005
    - Standard Life combined a growing book of business with a smaller loss ratio
    - Combined Insurance Company of America was the only top 10 accident and health insurer to see a loss ratio reduction other than Standard Life
    - Five insurers saw loss ratios increase at the same time as their books grew
    - New Hampshire and BUPA saw loss ratios increase, while their books declined in size
  - The top 10 accident and health insurers recorded an average expense ratio of 29.9% in 2006
    - Three of the top 10 accident and health insurers saw their expense ratios decrease while their books grew
    - Combined Insurance Company of America saw its book shrink and its expense ratios reduce
    - Norwich Union, SimplyHealth and AXA saw expense ratios increase as their books expanded
    - Two insurers saw their expense ratios increase alongside a shrinking book of business
  - The top 10 accident and health insurers recorded an average combined ratio of 93.6% in 2006, although two of the biggest players saw their ratios move above 100%
    - The top 10 accident and health insurers achieved an average combined ratio of 93.6% in 2006
    - Groupama and Standard Life both saw their combined ratios decrease in 2006 and their books grow, but Groupama' s ratio remained above 100%
    - Combined Insurance Company of America' s loss ratio fell by 5.8 percentage points
    - Six of the top 10 insurers saw their combined ratios increase in 2006
- The top 10 motor insurers made the move into profitability in 2006 on the back of reductions in losses and expenses
  - The average loss ratio among the top 10 UK motor insurance providers declined in 2006 with AXA, Norwich Union and Churchill recording the biggest improvements
    - In 2006, the average loss ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers fell by 3.3 percentage points to 71.1%
    - AXA, Norwich Union and Churchill recorded the strongest loss ratio reductions
    - Four insurers recorded loss ratio deterioration
  - The average expense ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers declined by 0.7 percentage points in 2006, with Churchill, AXA, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recording above-average reductions
    - The average expense ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers declined by 0.7 percentage points in 2006
    - Churchill, AXA, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recorded above-average expense ratio decline
    - Norwich Union, Zurich and NFU Mutual recorded the highest increases in their expense ratios
  - The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers fell by four percentage points in 2006, with AXA and Churchill seeing significant declines
    - The average combined ratio of the top 10 motor insurers declined by four percentage points in 2006
    - AXA and Churchill recorded significant reductions in combined ratio in 2006
    - NIG, Direct Line and Zurich recorded combined ratio increases
- The top 10 pecuniary loss insurers saw their profitability increase
  - Pecuniary loss combined ratios increased as expense ratios rose and loss ratios fell
    - The average loss ratio of the top 10 pecuniary loss insurers declined by 0.2 percentage points to 29.4% in 2006
    - Norwich Union and Lloyds TSB achieved strong loss ratio reductions
    - Direct Line and Pinnacle recorded the highest loss ratio increases
  - The average expense ratio of the top 10 pecuniary loss insurers increased to 65.3% in 2006, with Direct Line, Allianz and St Andrew' s seeing the highest individual increases
    - The average expense ratio of the top 10 pecuniary loss insurers increased by 1.8 percentage points to 65.3% in 2006
    - GEFI, Norwich Union and UK Insurance recorded double-digit increases in their expense ratios
    - Direct Line, Allianz and St Andrew' s achieved strong expense ratio reductions
  - Combined ratios increased among the leading pecuniary loss insurers in 2006
    - The average combined ratio among the top 10 pecuniary loss insurers rose by 1.6 percentage points in 2006
    - Allianz, Direct Line, St Andrew' s and Lloyds TSB reduced their pecuniary loss combined ratios
    - GEFI, UK Insurance and Pinnacle all experienced increases in their combined ratios
- Combined ratios rose for the top 10 property insurers in 2006 due to rising expenses and claims however most players remained in profitable territory
  - The average loss ratio of the top 10 property insurers increased by 0.1 percentage points in 2006, with Direct Line, Zurich and Norwich Union recording the biggest reductions
    - The average loss ratio of the top 10 property insurers increased by 0.1 percentage points
    - Norwich Union, Direct Line and Zurich recorded strong loss ratio reductions
    - St Andrew' s, NIG and Royal & SunAlliance recorded high loss ratio increases
  - The average expense ratio of the top 10 property insurers increased in 2006, with Norwich Union and AXA recording the largest individual increases
    - The average expense ratio of the top 10 property insurers rose by 1.4 percentage points in 2006
    - Norwich Union, AXA and Lloyds TSB saw their expense ratios increase, but they achieved GWP growth
    - Four of the top 10 property insurers achieved expense ratio reductions
  - The average combined ratio of the top 10 property insurers rose in 2006, with Norwich Union, AXA and NIG seeing the largest increases
    - Among the top 10 UK property insurers, the average combined ratio rose by 1.5 percentage points in 2006
    - Norwich Union, AXA and NIG recorded high combined ratio growth
    - Three insurers were able to defy the property market trend and reduce their combined ratios
Future decoded
- Introduction
- GWP growth in the private motor market is forecast to improve between 2007-12, however the best performing lines will be household insurance and pecuniary loss
  - The personal general insurance market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 4.8% between 2007 and 2012
  - The household and pecuniary loss markets will record strong growth between 2007 and 2012
  - Growth in the private motor market will improve, however it will remain relatively low while individual accident and health GWP growth rates slow
- The individual A&H market is forecast to grow despite a decline in PMI subscribers
  - A decline in subscribers combined with growth in premium rates will influence the individual A&H market
  - The individual accident and health insurance market is forecast to grow to £4.6 billion in 2012
- Private motor GWP is forecast to reach £12.5 billion by 2012
  - A hardening market in 2008 and 2009 should result in significant premium rate growth
  - The UK private motor insurance market is predicted to be worth £12.5 billion in 2012
- Premium rates will increase in the household insurance market as claims costs increase
  - Severe weather events in 2007 and underlying claims inflation are likely to push up rates
  - The household insurance market is forecast to grow by 5.1% per annum between 2007 and 2012
- UK personal pecuniary loss GWP is forecast to achieve annual growth of 5.9% between 2007 and 2012f
  - The forecast for pecuniary loss is based on historical trends
APPENDIX
- 2005-6 definitions for lines of business
  - Accident & health
    - Medical expenses
    - HealthCare cash plan
    - Travel
    - Personal accident or sickness
  - Motor
    - Total private motor
    - Total commercial motor
    - Private motor comprehensive
    - Private motor non-comprehensive
    - Motorcycle
    - Fleets
    - Commercial vehicles (non-fleet)
  - Property
    - Total commercial property
    - Household and domestic all risks.
    - Consequential loss (i.e. business interruption)
  - Financial/Pecuniary loss business
    - Total personal financial loss business
    - Total commercial financial loss business
    - Legal expenses
    - Fidelity and contract guarantee
  - Liability business
    - Employers liability (including the employers liability part of mixed liability packages but excluding mixed commercial packages)
    - Professional indemnity (including directors' and officers' liability and errors and omissions liability)
    - Public and products liability
    - Mixed commercial package
  - Total personal
  - Total commercial
- Pre-2005 definitions for lines of business
  - Accident and health
    - Individual accident and health
    - Group accident and health
  - General liability
  - Motor
  - Pecuniary loss
    - Total pecuniary loss figures
  - Property
- Premium income measures
  - Earnedpremiums
  - Gross Premium
  - Net Premium
  - Written premiums
- 2005 FSA Return changes
  - Major changes in FSA Return categories and their impact
  - Market size
    - Changes in market size information
    - Market size methodology
    - Lloyd' s players and underwriting result figures
  - Competitor data
    - GWP versus GEP reporting
    - Total personal and total commercial business
    - Home-Foreign, overseas and facultative reinsurance business
- Further reading
- Ask the analyst
- Datamonitor consulting
- Disclaimer
- List of Tables
  - Table 1: Total general insurance GWP by line of business, 2002-6
  - Table 2: Personal GWP split by line of business, 2002-6
  - Table 3: Total general insurance underwriting result, by line of business, 1996-2006
  - Table 4: Accident & health GWP split between individual and group, 2002-6
  - Table 5: Accident and health GWP by sector, 2002-6
  - Table 6: Total accident & health underwriting result, 1996-2006
  - Table 7: Total motor market GWP by private and commercial segment, 2002-6
  - Table 8: Private motor insurance premium income by line of business 2002-6
  - Table 9: Total motor underwriting account, 1996-2006
  - Table 10: Total private motor underwriting account, 1996-2006
  - Table 11: Pecuniary loss market GWP by line of business, 2002-6
  - Table 12: Total pecuniary loss underwriting account, 1996-2006
  - Table 13: Property insurance GWP split between household and commercial business, 2002-6
  - Table 14: Total property underwriting account, 1996-2006
  - Table 15: Total household underwriting account, 1996-2006
  - Table 16: Motor insurance GWP distribution by channel, 2002-06
  - Table 17: Household insurance GWP distribution by channel, 2002-06
  - Table 18: Distribution of private motor insurance, by platform, 2003-07
  - Table 19: Distribution of household insurance, by platform, 2003-07
  - Table 20: Top 10 personal general insurance advertisers, 2005-06
  - Table 21: Top 10 UK insurance providers by spontaneous recognition, 2007
  - Table 22: Top 10 personal insurance competitors by GWP and market share, 2006
  - Table 23: Split between personal and commercial business for the top 10 personal insurers, 2006
  - Table 24: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio for the top 10 UK accident and health insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 25: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio for the top 10 UK accident and health insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 26: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio for the top 10 UK accident and health insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 27: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005-6
  - Table 28: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005-6
  - Table 29: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio, top 10 UK motor insurers, 2005-6
  - Table 30: Change in premium income compared to change in loss ratio for the top 10 UK pecuniary loss insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 31: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio for the top 10 UK pecuniary loss insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 32: Premium income compared to change in combined ratio for the top 10 UK pecuniary loss insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 33: Premium income compared to change in loss ratio for the top 10 UK property insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 34: Change in premium income compared to change in expense ratio among the top 10 property insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 35: Change in premium income compared to change in combined ratio for the top 10 UK property insurers, 2005-06
  - Table 36: 10 year trend personal general insurance forecasts, 2002-2012f
  - Table 37: Key variables affecting individual accident and health insurance GWP, 2007e-12f
  - Table 38: Individual accident and health GWP forecast, 2002-12f
  - Table 39: Key variables affecting private motor insurance GWP, 2002-12f
  - Table 40: Private motor insurance GWP 2002-12f (£m)
  - Table 41: Key variables affecting household insurance GWP, 2007e-12f
  - Table 42: Forecast of household GWP, 2002-12f (£m)
  - Table 43: Personal pecuniary loss GWP, 2002-12f
- List of Figures
  - Figure 1: General insurance GWP declined in 2006
  - Figure 2: Private motor continued to decline, while household and individual accident and health achieved growth in GWP in 2006
  - Figure 3: The total general insurance market moved further into profit in 2006
  - Figure 4: Growth in the individual accident and health sector slowed in 2005 and 2006
  - Figure 5: During 2006, individual health GWP growth slowed and premium income fell in the individual accident sector
  - Figure 6: Growth in profitability returned to the accident and health market in 2006
  - Figure 7: Both the private and commercial motor markets declined in 2006
  - Figure 8: Both of the main private motor lines declined in 2006
  - Figure 9: The motor insurance market continued to make an underwriting loss in 2006
  - Figure 10: The private motor market made an underwriting loss of £448m in 2006
  - Figure 11: The pecuniary loss market saw its underwriting profit increase in 2006
  - Figure 12: Household insurance GWP increased in 2006, while commercial property GWP fell
  - Figure 13: Property insurance underwriting profits fell in 2006 to £517m
  - Figure 14: Household underwriting profits fell dramatically during 2006
  - Figure 15: The partnership channel has increased its share of the private motor market in recent years
  - Figure 16: Banks increased their share of the household insurance market in 2006
  - Figure 17: The percentage of consumers arranging their motor insurance online has been increasing steadily since 2003
  - Figure 18: Phone remains the largest distribution platform for household insurance in 2007
  - Figure 19: The majority of the largest insurance advertisers reduced advertising spending in 2006
  - Figure 20: Both Direct Line and Churchill enjoy high consumer awareness of the brands
  - Figure 21: Norwich Union was the largest UK personal general insurer in 2006, with a 15.8% market share
  - Figure 22: Several of the leading UK personal insurers did not underwrite any commercial business
  - Figure 23: Only two of the top 10 UK accident and health insurers achieved better loss ratios in 2006
  - Figure 24: Numerous UK accident and health insurers saw their expense ratios increase in 2006
  - Figure 25: Six of the top 10 UK accident and health insurers recorded higher combined ratios in 2006
  - Figure 26: While the average loss ratio of the top 10 UK motor insurers fell in 2006, NIG and Direct Line saw increases in their ratios
  - Figure 27: Norwich Union saw the biggest increase in private motor expense ratio in 2006
  - Figure 28: NIG saw the biggest increase in combined ratio in 2006
  - Figure 29: A number of UK pecuniary loss insurers recorded significant GWP decline in 2006, although some were also able to decrease their loss ratios as a result
  - Figure 30: Direct Line achieved strong GWP growth and reduced its expense ratio in 2006, although fellow RBS subsidiary UK Insurance did not fare as well
  - Figure 31: Allianz, Direct Line and St Andrew' s achieved the strongest pecuniary loss combined ratio reductions in 2006, largely through decreasing their expense ratios
  - Figure 32: Direct Line, Zurich and Norwich Union saw the best decreases in loss ratio in 2006
  - Figure 33: St Andrew' s was the only insurer to successfully reduce its expense ratio and at the same time increase its property insurance GWP in 2006
  - Figure 34: Direct Line and Churchill saw the biggest reductions in combined ratio in 2006
  - Figure 35: GWP growth in the private motor market is forecast to improve between 2007 and 2012, however the best performing lines will be household insurance and pecuniary loss
  - Figure 36: The Individual accident and health market is forecast to grow to £4.6 billion in 2012
  - Figure 37: The private motor market will rebound in 2007 and grow for the entire forecast period
  - Figure 38: The household insurance market is forecast to reach £9.8 billion in GWP by 2012
  - Figure 39: UK personal pecuniary loss GWP is forecast to achieve annual growth of 5.9% between 2007-12f

UK Personal General Insurance 2007

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