Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
METHODOLOGY 1
ANALYSIS
2
European Utilities Key Player Profile: GDF 2
Datamonitor' s Key
Player Scorecard examines 31 leading utilities drawn from across Europe' s
competitive arenas 4
Key Players dominate power generation capacity market
share in the Wmed competitive arena 5
Key Players dominate power
generation output market share in the Wmed and CEE competitive arenas 6
Despite ongoing industry consolidation, in no competitive arenas do Key
Players dominate power supply volume market share 7
Despite ongoing
industry consolidation, in no competitive arenas do Key Players dominate gas
volume market share 8
The Key Player Scorecard assesses utilities across
four pillars: Performance, Scale, Growth and Exposure 9
The Performance
pillar combines 5 financial metrics to measure business performance 10
The
Scale pillar combines financial and operational metrics to measure the size of
a utility 11
The Growth pillar measures the rate of growth of a utility' s
financial and energy resources 12
The Exposure pillar combines both
operational and financial measurements of risk 13
GDF scores 29.2/100 on
Datamonitor' s European Utility Scorecard and ranks 20 out of the 31 Key
Players covered 14
GDF' s overall score is below the Key Player average
16
GDF achieves an overall ranking of 20, with a utility score of 29.2
21
GDF only scores above average on the Growth pillar 22
GDF has a
below average level of Performance, yet with an above average level of risk
(below average Exposure score) 23
Compared to the top ten utilities GDF
scores well on growth, but is near the bottom in terms of Scale 24
GDF' s
financial metrics are in the lower half of the Key Player average, resulting
in a Performance ranking of 24 25
GDF' s overall financial Performance
score of 8.4 lags the Key Player average of 10.9 26
GDF scores below the
top ten utilities on both return on sales and fixed assets 27
GDF
significantly underperforms the Key Player average on both return on
investment and energy volume 28
GDF scores above the Key Player average in
Scale, attaining a ranking of 11 29
On revenue and gas supply volume
growth GDF exceeds the Key Player average 30
In generation capacity GDF
ranks 26, with 0.7 GW 31
GDF' s power volume is just three percent of its
gas volume 32
GDF has a negligible share of Key Player power customers, at
less than one percent 33
At 20 TWh, GDF ranks 22 in terms of power supply
volume 34
GDF has a 15% share of Key Player gas customers 35
In gas
supply volume GDF has a 6% Key Player market share 36
GDF ranks 8 and 12
in terms of revenue and net income respectively 37
GDF' s Growth ranking of
10 is due mainly to above average revenue and gas supply volume growth 38
GDF' s operating cash flow and power volume growth metrics are below average,
resulting in a Growth ranking of 10 39
GDF' s price earnings ratio of 6
indicates that its share price may be undervalued relative to the other Key
Players 40
From 2001 to 2005, GDF' s annual profit growth of 14.3% outpaced
its revenue growth of 9.8% 41
From 2004 to 2005, GDF' s cash flow (1.3%)
and power volume growth (2.9%) have not kept pace with gas volume growth
(12.8%) 42
GDF' s large power NTR deficit and low operating cash flow
growth contribute to a low Exposure ranking of 27 43
Gas NTR is the only
Exposure metric in which GDF outperforms the Key Player average 44
GDF has
a power NTR deficit of 99.8% 45
Despite having the fifth largest amount of
Key player gas equity, GDF has a short NTR position of 92.7% 46
With a
debt to equity ratio of 124%, GDF is more highly leveraged than many top ten
utilities 47
Of the 31 Key Players, GDF ranks 20 in terms of debt leverage
48
GDF' s energy volume growth has far outstripped growth in operating cash
flow 49
GDF principally operates in the NWE competitive arena 50
The
UK is GDF' s most significant power market 51
Although France accounts for
the bulk of GDF' s gas sales, the company has a market presence across Europe
52
Almost three quarters of GDF' s generation capacity is in France 53
GDF has a market share of less than one percent of Key Player power customers
54
GDF has a 15% share of Key Player gas customers, the second highest
55
APPENDIX 56
Databook 56
Definitions 75
Datamonitor
Consulting 75
List of Tables
Table 1: The Key Players are drawn from
across a diverse range of markets 3
Table 2: The Performance pillar
combines 5 financial metrics to measure business performance 10
Table 3:
The Scale pillar combines financial and operational metrics to measure the
size of a utility 11
Table 4: The Growth pillar measures the rate of
growth of a utility' s financial and energy resources 12
Table 5: The
Exposure pillar combines both operational and financial measurements of risk
13
Table 6: GDF scores 29.2/100 on Datamonitor' s European Utility
Scorecard and ranks 20 out of the 31 Key Players covered 15
Table 7: GDF
scores 8.4/25 on the Performance pillar, and ranks 24 out of 31 on this
measurement 17
Table 8: GDF scores 4.1/25 on the Scale pillar, and ranks
11 out of 31 on this measurement 18
Table 9: GDF scores 9.4/25 on the
Growth pillar, and ranks 10 out of 31 on this measurement 19
Table 10: GDF
scores 7.3/25 on the Exposure pillar, and ranks 27 out of 31 on this
measurement 20
Table 11: GDF' s financial metrics are in the lower half of
the Key Player average, resulting in a Performance ranking of 24 25
Table
12: GDF scores above the Key Player average in Scale, attaining a ranking of
11 29
Table 13: GDF' s Growth ranking of 10 is due mainly to above average
revenue and gas supply volume growth 38
Table 14: GDF' s large power NTR
deficit and low operating cash flow growth contribute to a low Exposure
ranking of 27 43
Table 15: Return on fixed assets 56
Table 16: Return
on sales 57
Table 17: Operating profit margin 58
Table 18: Return on
energy volume 59
Table 19: Return on investment 60
Table 20:
Generation Capacity / EU25 market total 61
Table 21: Power Supply Volume /
EU25 market total 62
Table 22: Gas Supply Volume / EU25 market total
63
Table 23: Net income / Net income of 94 leading utilities 64
Table
24: Revenue / Revenue of 94 leading utilities 65
Table 25: Revenue growth,
2001-2005 CAGR 66
Table 26: Profit growth, 2001-2005 CAGR 67
Table 27:
Growth in operating cash flow, 2004 to 2005 68
Table 28: Gas supply volume
growth, 2004-2005 69
Table 29: Growth in power supply volume, 2004 to 2005
70
Table 30: Power NTR / Power supply volume 71
Table 31: Gas NTR /
Gas supply volume 72
Table 32: Debt leverage 73
Table 33: Growth in
operational cash flow - Growth in energy volume 74
List of Figures
Figure 1: Datamonitor' s Key Player Scorecard examines 31 leading utilities
drawn from across Europe' s competitive arenas 4
Figure 2: Key Players
dominate power generation capacity market share in the Wmed competitive arena
5
Figure 3: Key Players dominate power generation output market share in
the Wmed and CEE competitive arenas 6
Figure 4: Despite ongoing industry
consolidation, in no competitive arenas do Key Players dominate power supply
volume market share 7
Figure 5: Despite ongoing industry consolidation, in
no competitive arenas do Key Players dominate gas volume market share 8
Figure 6: GDF achieves an overall ranking of 20, with a utility score of 29.2
21
Figure 7: GDF only scores above average on the Growth pillar 22
Figure 8: GDF has a below average level of Performance, yet with an above
average level of risk (below average Exposure score) 23
Figure 9: Compared
to the top ten utilities GDF scores well on growth, but is near the bottom in
terms of Scale 24
Figure 10: GDF' s overall financial Performance score of
8.4 lags the Key Player average of 10.9 26
Figure 11: GDF scores below the
top ten utilities on both return on sales and fixed assets 27
Figure 12:
GDF significantly underperforms the Key Player average on both return on
investment and energy volume 28
Figure 13: On revenue and gas supply
volume growth GDF exceeds the Key Player average 30
Figure 14: In
generation capacity GDF ranks 26, with 0.7 GW 31
Figure 15: GDF' s power
volume is just three percent of its gas volume 32
Figure 16: GDF has a
negligible share of Key Player power customers, at less than one percent
33
Figure 17: At 20 TWh, GDF ranks 22 in terms of power supply volume
34
Figure 18: GDF has a 15% share of Key Player gas customers 35
Figure 19: In gas supply volume GDF has a 6% Key Player market share 36
Figure 20: GDF ranks 8 and 12 in terms of revenue and net income respectively
37
Figure 21: GDF' s operating cash flow and power volume growth metrics
are below average, resulting in a Growth ranking of 10 39
Figure 22: GDF' s
price earnings ratio of 6 indicates that its share price may be undervalued
relative to the other Key Players 40
Figure 23: From 2001 to 2005, GDF' s
annual profit growth of 14.3% outpaced its revenue growth of 9.8% 41
Figure 24: From 2004 to 2005, GDF' s cash flow (1.3%) and power volume growth
(2.9%) have not kept pace with gas volume growth (12.8%) 42
Figure 25: Gas
NTR is the only Exposure metric in which GDF outperforms the Key Player
average 44
Figure 26: GDF has a power NTR deficit of 99.8% 45
Figure
27: Despite having the fifth largest amount of Key player gas equity, GDF has
a short NTR position of 92.7% 46
Figure 28: With a debt to equity ratio of
124%, GDF is more highly leveraged than many top ten utilities 47
Figure
29: Of the 31 Key Players, GDF ranks 20 in terms of debt leverage 48
Figure 30: GDF' s energy volume growth has far outstripped growth in operating
cash flow 49
Figure 31: The UK is GDF' s most significant power market
51
Figure 32: Although France accounts for the bulk of GDF' s gas sales,
the company has a market presence across Europe 52
Figure 33: Almost three
quarters of GDF' s generation capacity is in France 53
Figure 34: GDF has a
market share of less than one percent of Key Player power customers 54
Figure 35: GDF has a 15% share of Key Player gas customers, the second highest
55
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