Pipeline and Commercial Insight: Alzheimer's Disease - Scenario forecasts reveal vast market potential

Abstract

Overview

Introduction

With the AD market entering a pivotal phase, Datamonitor has conducted several scenario forecasts in order to explore the possible market outlook over the next 10 years. Several pioneering Phase III disease slowing therapies offer blockbuster potential. However, should these drugs fail Phase III trials, generic competition of current therapies will see the market value decline.

Scope

• Overview of key marketed brands and late-stage pipeline drugs.
• Indication-specific sales volume and value forecasts to 2017 under four different scenarios.
• Identification of future market events that are expected to affect AD drug revenues.
• Analysis of patient potential, unmet needs and clinical trial design in AD.

Report Highlights

Datamonitor' s base scenario reveals three blockbuster potentially disease slowing drugs in the current late-stage pipeline. Wyeth/Elan' s bapineuzumab has potential to generate multi-billion dollar revenues, and become one of the most lucrative drugs in medicine.

The entry of potentially disease slowing therapies will not have a significant negative impact on the sales of branded current treatments. Along with the likely use of combined disease slowing and symptomatic treatments, slowing disease progression might actually increase the therapeutic window for symptomatic drugs.

Scenario forecasts reveal a future upper limit market value of $12.7 billion to a lower limit value of $1.9 billion across the seven major markets in 2017. The affect on forecast sales revenues of different US AD prevalence rates and the success or failure of clinical programs on each key pipeline drug is explored.

Reasons to Purchase

• Appreciate the lucrative potential of disease slowing AD therapies, and the impact of this class on the currently marketed symptomatic drugs.
• Assess region- (US, Japan and 5EU) and scenario-specific sales forecasts of key late-stage pipeline drugs and marketed brands.
• Understand unmet needs and opportunities in the AD market based on key opinion leader comments.