Table of Contents
DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring
the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index
shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the
competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying
metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push;
Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in the EU 27
and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in
early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after
full market opening 4
The MCI Index offers an assessment of competitive
intensity in January 2008 and a forecast for July 2010 - three years after
full market opening took place in the EU states. 4
Each of the nine
pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets
(see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are
calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average
(additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted
multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: A considerable gap exists between Sweden' s gas and power scores and
rankings 7
Sweden' s power market score is significantly ahead of the
majority of markets surveyed 7
The undeveloped nature of the Swedish gas
sector means that it ranks towards the bottom of the markets surveyed 7
Power MCI: The majority of Sweden' s metrics score towards the upper end of the
scale 9
The Swedish Market Framework metrics are likely to gain further
strength by July 2010 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3.5/10 2010:
5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 7/10 2010: 8/10] 9
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 6/10 2010: 8/10] 10
Supplier Push metrics are driven by the existence of the Nord Pool market
10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 9/10 2010: 9/10] 10
Retail
Market Fragmentation [2008: 7.5/10 2010: 7.5/10] 10
Traded Market Maturity
[2008: 10/10 2010: 10/10] 10
Customer Pull factors score relatively
highly, though are unlikely to show any further improvement. 10
Access to
Market Information and Assistance [2008: 7.5/10 2010: 8.5/10] 10
Consumer
Representation [2008: 5/10 2010: 7/10] 10
Propensity to Switch [2008: 4/10
2010: 8/10] 11
Gas MCI: In contrast to the power market, all but one of
Sweden' s gas scores are at the bottom end of the scale 12
The undeveloped
nature of the Swedish gas market constrains the Market Framework scores 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 12
Ease of Third Party
Access [2008: 3/10 2010: 3/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data
Transfer [2008: 4/10 2010: 6/10] 13
High levels of wholesale and retail
fragmentation combined with a lack of wholesale gas constrain the Market
Framework scores 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 0.5/10 2010:
3/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 2.5/10 2010: 2.5/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 0/10] 14
Customer Pull metrics
will remain at the lower end of the scale due to the immature nature of the
market 14
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 3/10 2010:
5/10] 14
Consumer Representation [2008: 3/10 2010: 4.5/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 2/10 2010: .3.5/10] 14
Outlook: Opportunities
exist for players willing to make long term distribution infrastructure
investments 15
Sweden' s position as one of Europe' s most competitive power
markets is in direct contrast to its gas market 15
Power scores 15
Gas
scores 15
Concerns over regulatory stability and the existing dominant
players will somewhat temper the otherwise attractive nature of the market
16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 16
New Market Entrant
Threats, Power 16
The current opportunities in the Swedish gas market
appear to be extremely limited with little improvement likely before at least
2010 16
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 16
New Market Entrant
Threats, Gas 17
MCI Scores 18
APPENDIX 21
Definitions 21
Ask
the analyst 26
List of Tables
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity,
Sweden 2008-10 18
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 19
Table 3:
MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 20
List of Figures
Figure 1:
MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3:
MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI
Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity,
2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10
8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Sweden 9
Figure 9: Gas
Market Competitive Intensity, Sweden 12
Figure 10: Market Competitive
Intensity, Sweden 15
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of
Regulator 21
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party
Access 22
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing
and Data Transfer 22
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market
Fragmentation 23
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market
Fragmentation 23
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market
Maturity 24
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market
Information and Assistance 24
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment,
Consumer Representation 25
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity
to Switch 25
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