Market Competitive Intensity (MCI): Turkey

Table of Contents

DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor' s MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures competitive intensity in the EU 27 and 6 related markets 4
The MCI Index assesses markets as they stood in early 2008 and forecasts conditions likely to be prevailing three years after full market opening 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 5
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 6
Context: The nascent, but emerging, nature of the Turkish energy markets create longer term market entry opportunities 7
The less than competitively intense nature of Turkish energy markets is likely to give way in the longer term to a number of attractive new market entrant opportunities 7
The arrival of new gas market entrants will give further impetus to the gas score 8
Power MCI: The competive development of the Turkish power market is likely to continue at a slow pace 9
Minimal change is expected in Turkey' s Market Framework factors over the forecast period 9
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 4.5/10] 9
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 10
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 1/10 2010: 2.5/10] 10
The dominance of a number of key state run utilities curtails the Supplier Push scores 10
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 10
In common with the Wholesale Fragmentation metric, the former TEAS market structure still prevails, despite various governmental plans for privatisations and the dilution of former monopoly control. 10
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 2/10] 10
Customer Pull metrics only play a minor role in the current market structure 10
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 11
Market information and assistance in the electricity sector remains limited, and is unlikely to evolve beyond supplier only information sources in the medium term. 11
Consumer Representation [2008: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 11
Propensity to Switch [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 11
Gas MCI: Privatisation and the arrival of new players will boost Turkey' s gas score over the forecast period 12
Effectiveness of Regulator [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 4.5/10] 12
Ease of Third Party Access [2008: 1.5/10 2010: 2/10] 13
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 13
Supplier Push metrics will show an increase over the forecast period. 13
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2008: 3/10 2010: 5/10] 13
Retail Market Fragmentation [2008: 3.5/10 2010: 6/10] 13
Traded Market Maturity [2008: 0/10 2010: 0.5/10] 13
Customer Pull metrics largely remain at the lower range of the scale 13
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2008: 1/10 2010: 2/10] 13
Market information and assistance in the gas sector remains limited, despite the existence of new entrants. These new entrants remain the main source of market information to customers. 13
Consumer Representation [2008: 2/10 2010: 3/10] 14
Propensity to Switch [2008: 1/10 2010: 3/10] 14
MCI Scores 15
APPENDIX 18
Definitions 18
Ask the analyst 23
List of Tables
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Turkey 2008-10 15
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2008-2010 16
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2008-2010 17
List of Figures
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 4
Figure 4: MCI Scales 5
Figure 5: MCI Applications 6
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 7
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2008-10 8
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Turkey 9
Figure 9: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Turkey 12
Figure 10: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 18
Figure 11: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 19
Figure 12: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 19
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 20
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 20
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 21
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 21
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 22
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 22