UK Retail Issues 2008

Table of Contents

• VERDICT VIEW
  • CATALYST
• EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
  • Tough environment that will shake out weaker operators fast
  • Time to re-evaluate
• ANALYSIS
  • Retail context
    • Pressures across the board
  • Hostile economic environment
    • Housing market slows down
  • Consumer spending squeezed
    • Disposable income shrinks
  • Retailers under pressure
    • Strain on retailers increases
    • Weakening demand and low sales growth
    • Inflation returns
  • Sector performance
    • Few winners in 2008
• SPACE & CHANNEL ISSUES
  • Overcapacity
    • High space growth in low sales growth environment
  • Multichannel growth
    • Online sales triple
    • Retail loses share
• PROPOSITION ISSUES
  • Price & price proposition trends
    • Price loses potency
    • Demand for retailers to edit choice
    • Premium outperforms
• DEMAND ISSUES
  • Demographics - changing consumer lifestyles and expectations
    • 45+s make greatest gain in number
    • Increasing importance of good customer service
    • Highest numbers in most budget constrained lifestage
  • Fragmentation of society
  • Environmental and ethical concerns
    • Greening of retail
    • Importance of ethical issues
• OPERATIONAL ISSUES
  • Supply chain rethink
  • Cost growth vs sales growth
  • Seasonality
  • Communication
    • Advertising spend grows
    • Shifting spend by medium
  • Globalisation
    • Scope for new entrants
  • Managing stakeholders
• SUMMARY & RECOMMENDATIONS
  • Time to re-evaluate
    • Shakeout of weaker operators
    • Changing nature of retail propositions
    • Retail mirrors fragmentation and polarisation of changing consumer dynamics
• List of Tables
  • Table 1: UK population changes and spend per capita 2012on 2008
  • Table 2: Advertising spend and growth 2007 on 2002
  • Table 3: 20 clothing retailers new to the UK 2007-2008
• List of Figures
  • Figure 1: Context for UK Retailers 2008
  • Figure 2: Number of property transactions and y-o-y change % 1997-2012
  • Figure 3: Growth % in real household disposable income 1997-2012
  • Figure 4: Pressures for retailers 2008
  • Figure 5: UK retail sales and growth 1997-2012
  • Figure 6: UK retail price inflation/deflation and volume sales growth % 1997-2010
  • Figure 7: Y-o-y sales growth % by sector 2007 & 2008
  • Figure 8: Additional m sq ft retail space 1987-2012
  • Figure 9: UK online retail sales 1998-2012
  • Figure 10: Retail share of total consumer spending 1997-2012
  • Figure 11: Percentage of shoppers mentioning price as a driver of satisfaction 2000-2008
  • Figure 12: Changes in importance of edited range and wide choice 2008 on 2000
  • Figure 13: Segmental trends in UK clothing market y-o-y change % 2002-2007e
  • Figure 14: Service as a driver of loyalty 2008
  • Figure 15: UK population by age groups 2008 and 2012
  • Figure 16: Drive towards green retailing 2008
  • Figure 17: Retailers views on what matters to consumers 2007
  • Figure 18: Share of advertising spend by medium 2002 and 2007
  • Figure 19: Market conditions produce casualties 2008
  • Figure 20: Winning and losing formats 2008
  • Figure 21: Changing consumers and retail evolution 2008